Market enthusiasm may be premature. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that inflation is sticky and the Federal Reserve may even raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

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2023.11.02 13:25
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Damon believes that inflation may be "more challenging than people imagine", and the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes is the right one, as it allows them to observe changes in the economic situation.

Despite the market's excitement over Powell's statement that "rate hikes are nearing an end" at last night's FOMC meeting, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that "it's not over yet."

On Wednesday, following the Federal Reserve meeting, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in a media interview that in a situation where inflation is stickier, the Fed could still raise policy rates by 75 basis points and warned that businesses should be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

He believes that the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes is the right one, as it allows them to observe changes in the economic situation in order to make future decisions, as inflation is sticky:

I think inflation may be trickier than people imagine, and the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures they (the Fed) have taken in recent years have been more powerful than people imagine. The unemployment rate is very low, and we will see.

There may be another rate hike of 25, 50, or even 75 basis points.

I'm not predicting this, I just think the possibility is higher than what others think.

Dimon expressed concerns about the Fed's quantitative tightening policy, as the Fed's cessation of purchasing US bonds has effectively increased the supply of bonds, but foreign buyers of US bonds have slowed down their purchases. He believes this could put greater pressure on the 10-year US Treasury yield:

One day, it will disrupt the market.

Jamie Dimon became CEO of JPMorgan Chase in 2005 and is currently the only veteran in a leadership position at a large bank who has remained in that position after experiencing the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, he has a deeper understanding of the financial crisis than most people.

In the interview, he said that after decades of low interest rates, the market may face "earth-shaking changes," including the massive US deficit, domestic spending on new projects, and an aging population relying on government social security systems.

Dimon does not believe that deflation will occur in the future, but he does believe that businesses will face risks:

With interest rates remaining high, you will see quite a few people swimming naked.

Overnight, the Federal Reserve held its ground for the second consecutive FOMC meeting, and Powell stated in a post-meeting press conference that the Fed's policy is restrictive and its impact has already been seen, but the effects of tightening have not fully materialized.

Powell commented that the Fed has made significant progress in this rate hike cycle. He stated that Fed officials believe they are nearing the end of this rate hike cycle and are currently proceeding cautiously.

After the press conference, the market's expectations for the end of rate hikes heated up, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all rising by over 1% and reaching new daily highs.