Bulls continue to play music and dance! The "Big Seven" of the US stock market may continue their crazy bull market next year.

This year, the strong performance of technology stocks has driven a rebound in the US stock market, especially the large technology stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven" by Wall Street - Apple (AAPL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), and Meta (META.US). As 2023 comes to a close, investors who missed out on the large-scale rebound in 2023 are wondering if the "Magnificent Seven" still have room for growth in 2024.

Strong Performance in 2023

So far this year, Apple, the largest company by market capitalization, has achieved a return rate of 46%, while the second-largest company, Microsoft, has seen a return rate as high as 59%. Impressive as these numbers are, Tesla's market capitalization has doubled, and Meta has achieved an astonishing return rate of 180%.

Seeing the strong returns of these large technology stocks, the ETF industry is also eager not to miss any opportunities. In November of this year, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US) made its debut on the market, consisting solely of exposure to these seven stocks. There are various opinions on whether these already impressive stocks still have value, and although the overall valuations of these seven tech giants may be a bit high, their leadership positions in the market are undeniable.

Reasonable High Valuations

In the eyes of investors, the high valuations of these stocks seem reasonable, stemming from exposure to high-growth technologies such as high-end software and hardware, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. Over the past decade, the return rate of these seven stocks has been more than double that of the S&P 500 index. With substantial cash on their balance sheets, strong cash flow, and outstanding leadership, they are expected to continue leading their respective markets in 2024.

Tim Murray, a capital market strategist at T.Rowe Price, agrees with the high valuations of the "Magnificent Seven." The strategist stated, "The exceptional valuations of these stocks match their fundamentals perfectly."

Murray points out that return on equity is a good general indicator of a company's fundamental strength. He notes that the average return on equity for the "Magnificent Seven" is 33%, which is twice the return on equity of 16.47% for the US stock market. "These seven companies have exceptional valuations, but their return on equity and fundamentals are also exceptional."

While Murray warns that if these tech giants cannot maintain their fundamentals, their stock prices may decline, Dom Rizzo, a technology portfolio manager at T.Rowe Price, believes that artificial intelligence, an emerging technology, has the potential to sustain the fundamentals of these tech giants.

Rizzo states, "Their investment returns will at least remain at these levels, or expand from now on, because these companies are best suited for artificial intelligence and this incredible revolution."In addition, the improvement in artificial intelligence productivity will also boost the performance of the "Big Seven". Rizzo said that few stock analysts talk about productivity, but the rise in productivity is crucial for the economy and the stock market for two reasons: first, the rise in productivity suppresses inflation. When the output per employee increases, companies do not feel the pressure of passing on the price increases from suppliers. Second, the rise in productivity increases profits, which is beneficial to the stock market. A large part of the bull market in the mid-to-late 1990s was due to the continuous improvement in productivity.

"Artificial intelligence has the potential to become the largest productivity enhancement factor in the global economy since electricity," Rizzo said. "This is an incredible event, and I believe it will change the world. Artificial intelligence will be integrated into all workflows. As we have seen in the internet era, when productivity improves, stocks perform well."

Bull market may also be a contributing factor

On the other hand, this belief also requires an equal level of confidence in the sustainability of the current bull market. Recently, there have been some skeptics in the market, and part of their argument stems from the belief that most stocks have had limited participation in the rebound of the S&P 500 index this year. For example, the top seven large tech companies currently account for the largest share of the S&P 500 index, about 28%. Apple leads the pack: this iPhone manufacturer has a weight of 7.5% in the S&P 500 index.

Microsoft's stock price follows closely behind, with a weight of 6.8% after reaching a historical high. Alphabet has a weight of 3.8%. The next four companies are Amazon (3.1%), Nvidia (2.9%), Tesla (1.9%), and Meta (1.7%).

While these bearish arguments have some merit, it is also worth noting that from a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve may have already ended its aggressive rate hike stance against inflation. After all, the rise in interest rates triggered a bear market in 2022, putting pressure on companies and forcing high-growth companies to borrow at higher rates to fund their operations. The stock market was impacted by the lack of liquidity. However, the market is forward-looking, and despite the Fed's hint that the rate hike cycle is not yet over, investors should still position their portfolios on the right side of the 2024 inflection point, especially as signs of reduced inflation risk become clearer.

Coupled with the market's cooling expectations of an economic recession, this new bull market seems likely to continue. With substantial cash on their balance sheets, strong cash flow, and excellent leadership, the "Big Seven" have the ability to continue leading their respective markets in 2024. In other words, despite the total market value of these seven stocks exceeding $10 trillion, there are still many reasons to be optimistic about their performance in 2024.