Novo Nordisk targets "millions" of potential customers: Preventing fat from growing in the cradle

"Miracle weight loss drug" Semaglutide has become a sensation, propelling Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable listed company in Europe. Now, Novo Nordisk is looking to go even further by focusing on the development of "preventive obesity" drugs.

According to media reports on Tuesday, Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk, stated in an interview that the company has set its sights on another "gold mine". Recently, Novo Nordisk established a department dedicated to "transformational prevention", utilizing artificial intelligence and advanced analytical techniques to gain a deeper understanding of obesity as a disease.

The largest experimental project of Novo Nordisk is the "SELECT" trial, a large-scale study involving over 17,000 people. The aim of the trial is to observe the response to the weight loss drug Wegovy, while collecting long-term samples such as DNA and blood, which will be combined with large public resources such as the UK Biobank.

The trial data may provide clues as to why some people are more prone to weight gain and even pave the way for the development of the first batch of preventive obesity drugs. Jorgensen stated:

"We will study this data to understand who is at risk of obesity and what are the characteristics of these patients."

In addition to researching potential preventive drugs, Novo Nordisk is also interested in identifying individuals who are at risk of obesity in the next two to five years and finding ways to convey this risk using digital solutions, so that they can change their behavior.

"Obesity" is also a disease

Nadeem Sarwar, Head of the Transformational Prevention Department, described obesity as a "particularly complex treatment area" where biological risks intertwine with social, cultural, and behavioral factors.

Lydia Alexander, a candidate for Chair of the American Society of Obesity Medicine, pointed out:

"Some clinical doctors have started to consider 'pre-obesity' as a term, just like 'pre-diabetes' to prevent diabetes. Like asking about family history of obesity, people should be asked about it when seeking medical treatment."

However, currently there are few preventive drugs for obesity, and many people do not even consider obesity as a disease, let alone spend money on prevention. People may oppose this approach and question, "Why should we treat them to prevent a disease they don't have?"

But Sarwar refutes this view, pointing out that the cost savings from preventing diseases could be enormous. The company is also collecting data in hopes of measuring the impact of a life without obesity on the healthcare system. Analyst Emily Field from Credit Suisse also believes that if Novo Nordisk can develop such a treatment method, the prospects will be very promising.

A broader market space

The "SELECT" trial has already shown that Wegovy can reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes, severe cardiovascular events, and death. Since the release of preliminary data in August, Novo Nordisk's stock price has surged by 25%, surpassing luxury goods giant LVMH to become the largest company in Europe by market value. Zhou Fude said that focusing on prevention will take them "further" and also give them new advantages in the increasingly competitive market. A preventive approach can solve a tricky problem with weight loss therapies, including existing medications: once patients stop taking the medication, their weight rebounds. Researchers believe that the body prompts people to consume more food to return to their "set point" weight, so if obesity is prevented from the beginning, things will be much easier.

If Novo Nordisk successfully develops a preventive obesity drug, it will face significant issues such as who is willing to take the drug and who is willing to pay for it.

Alexander believes:

If Novo Nordisk wants to treat people with a healthy body mass index, they need to find a genetic testing method to identify patients at higher risk of obesity and related diseases.

Without such genetic testing, the company may target people with a BMI of 25 to 27, which would still add "millions" of potential patients to the market.

In the near future, the market will focus on Novo Nordisk's expansion of Wegovy's supply to meet the growing demand. Field predicts that Wegovy's sales will reach $4.2 billion this year and $7.3 billion next year. She forecasts that Ozempic's sales will reach $13.3 billion in 2023 and $16.5 billion in 2024. Shareholders are also excited about Novo Nordisk's late-stage product pipeline, which includes a pill version of Wegovy and CagriSema, with trial data showing better weight loss effects for CagriSema.