CPI may undergo major revisions, the momentum of the US stock market is diminishing, SPDR S&P 500 narrowly hits a new all-time high, Arm surges nearly 50% after earnings report, and crude oil rises over 3%.

There may be a significant adjustment to the US CPI inflation data. The US Department of Labor will release the annual revised results for the seasonal adjustment factors of monthly inflation data. Some commentators have suggested that this year's adjustment may raise doubts about the progress of CPI inflation slowdown, as last year's substantial revision raised suspicions about the overall decline in inflation.

With the risk of a major adjustment to CPI inflation, the momentum of the US stock market has diminished. Major US stock indexes all experienced declines on Thursday. Some leading stocks that released their earnings reports made significant moves: Arm, a chip design giant, saw its stock surge over 60% as the AI boom fueled demand, with its revenue for the previous quarter and guidance for the current quarter far exceeding expectations; Disney, which reported higher-than-expected profits for the fourth quarter and announced a 50% increase in cash dividends and a $3 billion share buyback plan, rose over 10% and boosted the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Arm's positive earnings report led to gains in multiple European and American chip stocks, with ASML, the highest-valued chip stock in Europe, continuing its historic high for the past week, and Nvidia hitting a new intraday high but ultimately closing lower. New York Community Bancorp, a regional bank that experienced a V-shaped reversal on Wednesday, resumed its decline, as the bank's newly appointed chairman stated on Wednesday that the bank's liquidity and deposit base were strong, but investors' nervous sentiment did not ease.

Following the statements from several officials on Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials' speeches on Thursday continued to dampen market expectations of a recent interest rate cut. Richmond Fed President Barkin reiterated that the Fed has time to be patient with its decision on interest rate cuts, as the labor market is still strong and he hopes to see inflation continue to decline. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the previous week, which was released on Thursday and showed a greater-than-expected decrease of 9,000, strengthened the view that a rate cut in the near term is unlikely, as hinted by Federal Reserve officials.

With the setback in rate cut expectations, US Treasury prices continued to decline, pushing yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note approached the high point set earlier this week, and the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note, which is sensitive to interest rates, began to approach the high point set a month ago. The rise in US Treasury yields, particularly the pressure on low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen, pushed the yen to a two-month low, supporting a rebound in the US dollar index, which rose to nearly a three-month high set on Monday.

The market expects the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March and the total magnitude of rate cuts this year to continue to decline overall.

Following the robust demand for the record-breaking sale of 10-year US Treasury notes on Wednesday, the sale of 30-year US Treasury notes on Thursday, which reached a two-year high in terms of scale, showed strong demand. After the announcement of the sale results, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note narrowed slightly, while the yields on the 2-year and 30-year notes stabilized, maintaining an upward trend during the day.

In the commodity market, as the US dollar rebounded, various metals came under pressure and declined. After the release of US jobless data, gold extended its decline and hit a daily low, erasing all gains made earlier this month. Meanwhile, international crude oil resisted the pressure from the US dollar and accelerated its rise, with futures oil recording its largest daily gain in a month. The market is concerned about the situation in the Middle East conflict. According to Xinhua News Agency, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected Hamas' ceasefire proposal on Wednesday. According to CCTV, a Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo, Egypt on Thursday to follow up on ceasefire-related agreements with the support of Qatar and other countries. Some commentators believe that several shipping companies are concerned that the Red Sea situation will continue to disrupt oil transportation, and the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine may trigger algorithmic trading buying. Analysts also believe that drone attacks on Russian refineries in Ukraine and technical shutdowns will cause Russia's February exports to exceed planned levels, violating the OPEC+ production reduction agreement.

US natural gas prices continued to decline, hitting a new three-year low after closing below $2.0 for the first time in over three years on Wednesday. The slight decrease in the weekly US EIA natural gas inventory announced by the US Department of Energy on Thursday was lower than expected, and the total inventory is still 10.6% higher than the five-year average. Some analysts believe that although temperatures in some regions may drop next week and continue until the end of the month, there is not enough deviation from normal temperatures to support a bullish strategy for gas prices.

The three major US stock indices had mixed performances at the opening, with all of them experiencing declines during the trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened high, initially rose nearly 80 points or 0.2%, but turned negative in the morning session. It hit a daily low with a 0.3% decline towards the end of the morning session, but recovered slightly and turned positive in the afternoon session. The S&P 500, which opened slightly higher, initially declined but rebounded multiple times during the morning session, and fell nearly 0.2% towards the end of the morning session. The Nasdaq Composite, which opened slightly higher, initially declined by 0.1%, but quickly rebounded and maintained an upward trend, rising nearly 0.4% towards the end of the afternoon session.

In the end, all three indices rose for the third consecutive day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 48.97 points or 0.13% at 38,726.33, while the S&P 500 closed up 0.06% at 4,997.91, both hitting new closing highs for the second consecutive day and the third day of the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.24% at 15,793.72, also hitting a new closing high since January 3, 2022, for the second consecutive day and the third day of the week.

Small-cap stocks, mainly value stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, rose 1.5% after falling nearly 0.2% on Wednesday, reaching a high since January 30. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.16%, setting a new closing high for the second consecutive day since last Friday. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, rose 0.27%, also setting a new closing high for the second consecutive day since Monday.

Most of the Dow Jones Industrial Average components declined during the trading session, but by the closing, Disney rose 11.5% after announcing that it expects profits for the fiscal year 2024 to increase by at least 20% compared to the fiscal year 2023, increase cash dividends by 50%, repurchase $3 billion worth of stocks, and invest $1.5 billion in the game developer Epic Games, the creator of "Fortnite." Disney's performance far surpassed other gainers.

All three major US stock indices experienced declines during Thursday's trading session, while small-cap stocks, which fell against the market on Wednesday, rebounded. And Boeing, Verizon, Visa, and Walgreens all fell more than 1%.

Disney's stock soared 11% on the first trading day after its earnings report, reaching a new high in a year.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, there were six gainers and five losers on Thursday. The energy sector led the gains, rising more than 1% due to a surge in oil prices, while the utilities sector fell more than 0.8%, and the IT sector, which includes chip stocks, rose more than 0.1%.

Leading technology stocks experienced fluctuations during the trading day and closed with mixed results. Tesla initially fell in the morning but rose more than 2% to reach a new daily high at noon, closing with a gain of nearly 1.1%. It has risen for three consecutive days, continuing to move away from the closing low since May 2023, which was set on Monday, and reaching a new high since January 30th.

Among the FAANMG stocks, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, rose nearly 0.3%, continuing its six-day rally but still unable to recover from the sharp decline since its earnings report was released on January 31st. Microsoft initially fell in the morning but closed slightly higher, setting a new closing high since the rebound on Wednesday. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, closed slightly higher, rising for two consecutive days but still far from the closing high of a 20% surge after its earnings report was released last Friday. Apple fell nearly 0.6%, marking its first decline since the launch of Vision Pro last Friday. Amazon fell 0.4%, failing to approach the three-year high it reached after an almost 8% surge following its earnings report last Friday. Netflix, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell 0.1%.

Overall, the seven major technology stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, NVIDIA, and Tesla, fell slightly on Thursday.

The seven major technology stocks, including NVIDIA, fell slightly on Thursday.

The chip sector continued its two-day rally, outperforming the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX both rose more than 2% at one point during the afternoon session, closing up nearly 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. The former approached its closing high on January 24th, while the latter set a new closing high. Among individual stocks, Arm, which reported third-quarter revenue that far exceeded expectations, rose more than 60% in the morning and closed up 47.9%, reaching a new all-time high. ASML rose nearly 4.9%, while Qualcomm, Broadcom, and Texas Instruments all rose more than 1%. NVIDIA experienced multiple declines during the trading day, falling 0.9% at its lowest point in the morning, but rebounded and reached a new intraday high before closing with a decrease of nearly 0.7%, falling from the closing high set on Wednesday. AMD fell 0.9%. ARM's stock soared on the first trading day after the release of its earnings report.

The performance of bank stocks was mixed. The overall banking industry index, KBW Bank Index (BKX), fell by less than 0.1%, hitting a new closing low since January 18th; the regional bank index, KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), rose by nearly 0.3%, and the regional bank stock ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), rose by about 0.4%.

Among regional banks, New York Community Bancorp, which fell by 10.6% and 22.2% on Monday and Tuesday respectively, fell by nearly 6.5%, almost giving back all the gains it made on Wednesday, which was close to 6.7%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks continued to decline overall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by nearly 1.1%, marking a decline of over 1% for two consecutive days, moving away from the closing high since January 12th. Among individual stocks, by the close, JD.com fell by over 4%, Alibaba fell by nearly 4%, Tencent fell by nearly 3%, Baidu fell by about 2%, Pinduoduo and NetEase fell by over 1%, Nio fell by nearly 0.7%, XPeng and Bilibili fell by 0.1%, while TAL Education rose by nearly 10%, New Oriental rose by over 6%, and Li Auto rose by nearly 0.8%.

In Europe, the pan-European stock index, which fell on Wednesday, closed slightly lower. The performance of leading stocks that released their earnings reports varied, with healthcare stocks leading the decline and consumer goods stocks leading the rise. The STOXX Europe 600 Index continued to move away from the closing high since January 6th, 2022. Most major European country indices rose, with the German, French, Italian, and Spanish stocks rebounding after Wednesday's decline, while the UK stocks fell for the second consecutive day, marking the sixth day of decline in the past seven trading days.

In various sectors, the personal and household goods sector rose by 1.9%, led by Unilever, which saw steady revenue growth in the fourth quarter and initiated a €1.5 billion share buyback program, rising by nearly 3.2%. British American Tobacco, which provided full-year profit guidance higher than expected, expressed "active consideration" of selling part of its stake in Indian company ITC, and was seen by investors as likely to restart share buybacks, rose by 7.1%. Luxury goods giant Kering, which reported fourth-quarter sales in line with expectations and was believed by analysts to have no major negative surprises in its performance, rose by 4.9%. On the other hand, the healthcare sector fell by over 1.9%, dragged down by AstraZeneca, whose fourth-quarter profits fell short of expectations, and the oil and gas sector fell by nearly 0.4%, mainly due to Finnish biofuel producer Neste, whose fourth-quarter operating profit was lower than expected and projected lower sales profit for renewable products this year, falling by 11.9%. In other stocks, Adyen, the Dutch payment giant, whose 2023 earnings exceeded expectations, rose 21.3%, leading the gains in the STOXX 600 index and driving the Dutch stock index up 1.6%, hitting a new closing high since Tuesday. ASML, the Dutch lithography machine giant, rose 0.6%, hitting a new high for the sixth consecutive trading day, supporting a nearly 0.9% increase in the technology sector. On the other hand, Maersk, the shipping giant, whose projected 2024 earnings are lower than 2023, fell 14.7%, while its German-listed peer, Hapag Lloyd's, fell 9.2%. Novo Nordisk, the Danish-listed pharmaceutical company with the highest market value in Europe, fell more than 1%, experiencing its first decline in four days after its parent company announced the acquisition of Catalent, a key outsourcing manufacturer of its weight loss drug Wegovy, and failed to reach a new closing high on the first day.

US Treasury Yields Rise for Two Consecutive Days, 2-Year Yield Approaches One-Month High

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 4.09% in the Asian session, hitting a daily low of 4.0864%, but quickly rebounded above 4.10%. During the European and American trading sessions, it generally maintained an upward trend. In early trading, US stocks tested 4.17%, approaching the high of January 25th when it broke through 4.17% on Monday. After the announcement of the 30-year US Treasury bond yield at noon, the 10-year yield briefly fell below 4.14%, but then rebounded slightly. It still showed an upward trend during the day, reaching about 4.15% at the end of the bond market, an increase of about 3 basis points during the day.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below 4.41% during the European stock session, but quickly rebounded. In midday trading, US stocks rose to 4.46%, approaching the high of January 5th when it approached 4.48%. At the end of the bond market, it was about 4.45%, an increase of about 2 basis points during the day, and both the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields rose for two consecutive days after a two-day rise on Tuesday.

Despite steady sales of 30-year US Treasury bonds, yields for various maturities continued to rise overall on Thursday.

US Dollar Halts Two-Day Decline, Rises to Nearly Three-Month High, Bitcoin Surpasses $45,000 to Hit a One-Month High

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies including the euro, fell below 104.00 in the early Asian session, with a slight decline of 0.01% during the day. After a turnaround in the early European stock session, it maintained an upward trend. After the release of US jobless data before the US stock market, the gains expanded, reaching above 104.40, hitting a daily high, and rising nearly 0.4% during the day, approaching the high of November 14, 2023, when it broke through 104.60 on Monday. Thereafter, it gradually gave back most of the gains.

By the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the US dollar index was above 104.10, up 0.1% during the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose nearly 0.2%, rebounding after two consecutive days of decline, along with the US dollar index. After the release of US unemployment data, the US dollar index hit a daily high and rose to a near three-month high.

Among non-US currencies, the Japanese yen has fallen for two consecutive days, reaching a new low in over two months. The USD/JPY continued to rise after a morning rally in the Asian market, with US stocks approaching 149.50 in early trading, reaching a high since November 27th. It rose nearly 0.9% during the day and nearly 0.8% at the close of the US stock market.

The EUR/USD hit a daily low of 1.0740 before the US stock market opened, falling nearly 0.3% during the day. However, it rebounded as the US stock market rallied and rose less than 0.1% at the close of the US stock market, failing to continue its decline towards the low of 1.0720 on Monday, the lowest level since November 14th.

The GBP/USD approached 1.2570 before the US stock market opened, falling 0.4% during the day and approaching the low of 1.2520 on Monday, the lowest level since December 23rd. However, it rebounded and fell slightly at the close of the US stock market.

In the Asian market, the offshore renminbi (CNH) hit a daily high of 7.2026 before fluctuating and falling back. In the European stock market, it approached 7.22 to 7.2199 in early trading, approaching the intraday low since January 18th when it fell to 7.2245, a decrease of 173 points from the daily high. At 5:59 am Beijing time on February 9th, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.2152 yuan, a decrease of 24 points from the end of Wednesday's New York session, falling for two consecutive days after a four-day halt.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to rise, breaking through $45,000 for the first time in nearly a month before the US stock market opened. It rose to over $45,500 at noon, reaching a new intraday high since January 12th. It rose more than $1,100 and more than 3% from the daily low in the Asian market. At the close of the US stock market, it remained above $45,300, with a gain of over 2% in the past 24 hours.

Crude oil saw the largest monthly gain and reached a new high within the month, while US natural gas hit a new low in over three years.

International crude oil futures maintained an upward trend throughout Thursday, only turning downward before the European stock market opened. During the European and American trading sessions, it continued to rise. At the US stock market's midday high, WTI crude oil was above $76.50, rising more than 3.6% during the day, while Brent crude oil reached $81.90, up about 3.4% during the day.

In the end, crude oil rose for four consecutive days, with the largest closing gain since January 3rd. WTI March crude oil futures rose $2.36, an increase of over 3.19%, to $76.22 per barrel, reaching the highest closing level since January 30th. Brent April crude oil futures rose $2.42, an increase of 3.05%, to $81.63 per barrel, reaching the highest closing level since January 31st. Crude oil prices rebounded on Thursday, erasing the losses from the past week. Gasoline and natural gas futures in the United States continued to fluctuate. NYMEX March gasoline futures rose 3.5% to $2.342 per gallon, marking a four-day consecutive increase and reaching the highest closing level since October 2023. NYMEX March natural gas futures fell 2.54% to $1.917 per million British thermal units, marking a three-day consecutive decline and reaching the lowest closing level for the monthly contract since September 2020.

London base metals futures mostly declined on Thursday. London zinc fell by about 3%, hitting a five-month low, while London copper fell for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching the lowest closing level in nearly three months. London copper dropped more than 1%, closing below $8,200 for the first time since early November last year. London lead fell for the second consecutive day to a one-month low. London nickel, which had a slight rebound after two consecutive declines on Wednesday, fell to the lowest level since November 2020. London tin rose more than 1% for the third consecutive day, reaching a one-week high since the end of January. London aluminum remained flat and did not continue to decline to the two-week low set on Monday.

New York gold futures maintained a downward trend after a brief rebound during the early Asian session, with only a short-term increase during the early European stock market session. Before the release of US jobless data, gold fell to a daily low of $2,034.6, down more than 0.8% during the day.

In the end, COMEX April gold futures fell 0.19% to $2,047.9 per ounce, reaching the lowest level since January 29 after a two-day consecutive increase.

Spot gold briefly rose to $2,038.70 during the European stock market session, with a slight increase of nearly 0.2% during the day, but then turned downward. Before the US stock market opened, it fell below $2,020.30, down more than 0.7% during the day, and then rebounded. At the close of the US stock market, it was above $2,030, with a decrease of less than 0.1% during the day.

In the end, spot gold closed with a slight decline.