HTSC: Why is Bitcoin reaching a new high? What changes should we pay attention to next?

Zhitong App learned that HTSC has released a research report stating that on March 11th, Bitcoin surpassed $72,000, breaking the previous high of $69,000. The bank believes that the main reasons for this round of Bitcoin price increase include: 1) On January 10th, the SEC officially approved the issuance of Bitcoin spot ETF, attracting a cumulative inflow of over a trillion US dollars in the past two months; 2) By the end of April, Bitcoin's issuance will undergo another halving, prompting some market funds to position themselves early. Looking ahead, it is recommended to pay attention to: 1) the possibility of Ethereum ETF approval; 2) progress of virtual asset spot ETFs in regions like Hong Kong; 3) the impact of price increases and market changes on leading exchange companies; 4) changes in the market landscape of the mining industry after the halving.

HTSC's comments are as follows:

Change One: Bitcoin spot ETF: Cumulative inflow of over a trillion US dollars, Blackrock/Fidelity shares increased by 1/10, the US SEC approved 11 asset management companies including Blackrock, Fidelity, and Grayscale to apply for the issuance of Bitcoin spot ETF. Compared to futures ETFs, spot ETFs have lower costs as they do not erode profits with extension costs. According to TheBlock, since the beginning of the year, a total of over a trillion US dollars has flowed into 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs. As of March 11th, Blackrock (46.84%), Grayscale (31.64%), and Fidelity (23.82%) were the top three in terms of fund flow in the market. In terms of management scale, the current top three are Grayscale ($27.5 billion), Blackrock ($12.7 billion), and Fidelity ($7.9 billion). Currently, 7 institutions have submitted applications for Ethereum spot ETFs to the SEC, and on January 26th, CSOP Hong Kong submitted a Bitcoin ETF application to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. It is recommended to follow the subsequent approval progress.

Change Two: After FTX went bankrupt and Binance was fined, Coinbase's exchange market share significantly increased. In early 2022, the top three cryptocurrency exchanges were Binance, OKX, and FTX, while the top three in annual total trading volume in 2022 were Binance, OKX, and Coinbase. Coinbase is the first publicly listed compliant cryptocurrency exchange regulated by the SEC. In November 2022, FTX declared bankruptcy, and in November 2023, Binance reached a settlement with the US Department of Justice, paying a $4.3 billion fine. Subsequently, Coinbase's market share significantly increased. In February 2024, its market value exceeded that of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reaching $50 billion. Through an analysis of Coinbase's 2023 financial report, the bank observed that Coinbase's main businesses include cryptocurrency trading, cryptocurrency subscriptions, and services. Since its establishment, Coinbase has actively embraced regulation, leading its peers in terms of licenses and other aspects. Change Three: Pay attention to the halving of issuance, the impact on the mining machine industry chain According to Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin white paper "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" in October 2008, the maximum issuance of Bitcoin is 21 million coins. Every 210,000 blocks generated, the mining reward will be halved. At the average speed of one new block every 10 minutes, the expected date of the fourth halving will be in late April 2024. After the halving, the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 coins per block. The most direct impact of the halving of block rewards is that the mining income of miners using mining machines will be halved. According to CoinDesk, in the year following the past three halvings, the price of the currency rose by 8069%/284%/559%.

Risk Warning: Risks of cryptocurrency price fluctuations; risks of cryptocurrency and blockchain regulation; Web3 application landing falling short of expectations.