理解市场 | 比特币可能会 “卖光” ！怎么办？
上周比特币现货 ETF 净流量超过 3 万枚比特币，分析警告，按照这个速度，9 月份将发生 “卖方流动性危机”。需求达到一定阶段，供给没办法满足时，预计比特币价格受到的冲击可能会超出市场预期。
Industry analysis experts have warned that if investors continue to buy spot ETFs like this, Bitcoin may face a "seller liquidity crisis" in September.
Recently, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, predicted in a discussion post on the X social platform that there will be a turning point in Bitcoin supply within 6 months.
Ki wrote:
Last week, the net flow of spot ETFs for Bitcoin exceeded 30,000 coins. Known entities such as exchanges and miners hold about 3 million coins, with U.S. entities holding 1.5 million coins.
At this rate, we will see a seller liquidity crisis within 6 months.
When demand reaches a certain stage and supply cannot meet it, Ki predicts that the impact on Bitcoin price may exceed market expectations.
Once a seller liquidity crisis occurs, due to restricted liquidity for sellers and fewer order volumes, the next cyclical peak for Bitcoin may exceed our expectations.
Ki also showed the continuous upward trend in the amount of Bitcoin held by so-called "accumulation addresses" (Bitcoin wallets that only engage in inbound transactions). To reach the level of crisis outbreak, the amount of Bitcoin in these addresses needs to double. However, some media reports have indicated that with Bitcoin hitting new highs, the holdings of these "accumulation addresses" have recently decreased.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high for the fourth consecutive day this Thursday, breaking through $73,700 for the first time in history, but failed to sustain the momentum. After reaching the new high, it plunged by about $5,000 during trading, briefly dropping below $69,000.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, with a year-to-date increase of over 54%.
