S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, with AI stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom reaching new highs, while NVIDIA falls from its peak

With the turbulent political situation in Europe and the Bank of Japan's hesitation on policy normalization, coupled with the ongoing risks of a potential financial crisis in Europe and yen exchange rate, a large amount of funds are flowing into the US stock and bond markets. Investors are flocking to AI/technology, driving Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, the three "3 trillion-dollar giants," to take turns hitting historical highs. The S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have risen for 7 out of the past 8 weeks, repeatedly setting new records.

On Monday, US stocks continued to strengthen, led by the technology sector, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs again, while other indices such as the Russell 2000 and the Dow also rose. Most sectors saw gains, with the technology and non-essential consumer goods sectors performing the best, while defensive sectors like utilities, real estate, and healthcare performed the worst.

The Bank of England's interest rate decision this week saw investors partially shake off last week's negative sentiment, leading to a rebound in the euro and most European stocks. The rebound in the French stock index outperformed Germany, Italy, and the UK, but European bonds continued to decline, with the yield on French 10-year government bonds rising by more than 7 basis points. The US dollar weakened, with most US bond yields rising by more than 5 basis points.

Following speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Harker, both 2026 FOMC voters, US bond yields rose, while precious metals (gold, silver) fell. Harker stated that if the economic situation meets expectations, the Fed may cut rates once in 2024, but in the face of uncertainty, it is possible for the Fed to cut rates twice or not at all, depending on the data. Kashkari mentioned that the central bank may not cut rates until December, needing more evidence to prove that the inflation rate is falling to 2%.

After hawkish comments, expectations for rate cuts today have decreased slightly.

In addition, the New York Fed's manufacturing index performed better than expected, recording -6 (expected -9), the highest value in four months. The index measuring manufacturers' input prices fell to nearly a year low, but the market reaction was limited.

International crude oil futures surged on Monday, with US oil rising more than 2.39% at one point, moving away from a three-week low. Factors such as the weak US dollar, optimistic expectations of oil demand growth and inventory decline from institutions like IEA and EIA, Saudi Arabia's assurance of flexible production adjustments in the fourth quarter based on market conditions, OPEC+ member countries like Russia and Iraq committing to production quotas, strong Chinese manufacturing investment growth reaching 9.6%, as well as geopolitical risks such as Hezbollah launching attacks on Israel from Lebanon, all contributed to the rise in oil prices.

The market is focused on US retail sales in May on Tuesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and PMI flash readings on Friday. The US stock and bond markets will be closed on Wednesday, June 19th for Juneteenth. Fed Chair Powell will attend a Senate committee hearing on July 9th related to FOMC monetary policy.

U.S. Stock Indexes Rise Across the Board, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Hit New Highs Again, Most European Stocks Rebound, French Stocks Outperform German and British Stocks

On Monday, June 17th, major U.S. stock indexes turned higher across the board, collectively rising. Large-cap tech stocks supported the S&P 500 index, with the Nasdaq hitting a new high again, showing the largest increase among major indexes. Information technology was the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, with semiconductor manufacturers performing exceptionally well.

At the close, the S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all hit historic closing highs, while the Russell small-cap index halted a two-day decline and the Dow Jones Industrial Average halted a four-day decline:

• The S&P 500 index rose by 41.63 points, or 0.77%, to 5473.23 points. The Dow Jones rose by 188.94 points, or 0.49%, to 38778.10 points. The Nasdaq rose by 168.14 points, or 0.95%, to 17857.02 points.
• The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 1.24% to a new high, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology component stocks, rose by 1.14% to a new high. Among the component stocks, Autodesk, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Xilinx, Lam Research, Qualcomm, KLA, Applied Materials, ASML, AMD, GlobalFoundries, and Apple led with gains of at least 2%, while ten component stocks declined, with NVIDIA down by about 0.7% ranking seventh from the bottom, AMD down by about 0.8%, Ansys down by over 1.7% ranking third from the bottom, Marvell Technology down by about 2%, and Atlassian down by 2.17%.
• The Russell 2000 index rose by 0.79%, and the VIX fear index rose by 0.71% to 12.75.

Nasdaq led the gains, rising by over 1.5% intraday, but profit-taking emerged towards the end of the session.

Last week, major U.S. indexes saw mixed movements, with the Dow Jones dominated by blue-chip stocks and the small-cap Russell 2000 index declining for the third week in four, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to historic highs, marking the seventh week of gains in the past eight weeks. This week, investors will assess whether this upward trend can continue and whether there are any concerns about the market outlook.

Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investment Company, said, "Today's market performance is a continuation of last week's situation. For some time, a series of factors have shown optimistic sentiment. Economic data is beginning to show signs of stronger and more stable growth, indicating economic resilience. Of course, people are also optimistic about the possibility of rate cuts."

However, JPMorgan warned that if technology fails to further drive the overall economy, the stock market may experience a pullback. Marko Kolanovic, the company's Chief Global Market Strategist, told clients, "We believe that technology will continue to be a key driver of economic growth in the coming years, and we do not think its impact on corporate profits will suddenly become profound, so we remain cautious in this regard."

**Tech stocks excluding NVIDIA all rose.** Tesla performed the best, closing up 5.3%, leading among the "Big Seven Sisters", with Apple up 1.97%, Microsoft up 1.31%, Meta up 0.49%, and Google A and Amazon up to 0.2%.

**Most chip stocks rose, with many individual stocks hitting new highs.** The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.60%, reaching a historical high at the close. The semiconductor industry ETF SOXX also rose 1.58% to a new high. However, NVIDIA initially hit a new high of over 1.4% before falling, closing down 0.68%, and the NVIDIA double long ETF fell by over 1.3%. KLA, Broadcom, TSMC, Applied Materials, Micron Technology, Xilinx, and Qualcomm all hit new closing highs. Broadcom rose 5.41%, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of hitting a new closing high, with a closing market value exceeding $850 billion; Micron Technology rose by about 4.6%, hitting a new closing high again after a day; Qualcomm rose by 3.2%, also hitting a new closing high again after a day; TSMC ADR rose by over 2.7%, hitting a new closing high;

**Most AI concept stocks rose.** Dell rose 5.22%, AMD rose 5.08%, Palantir rose 6.15%, Snowflake rose 2.75%, Oracle rose 2.3%, CrowdStrike rose 1.3%, C3.ai rose 0.59%, while NVIDIA concept stocks SoundHound.ai fell by 3.16%, BigBear.ai fell by 2.94%.

**Popular Chinese concept stocks had mixed performances.** The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.05% at 6048.76 points. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.36%, the China ETF-iShares MSCI (MCHI) rose 0.83%, and the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 0.56%.

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Haitong Securities fell by 6.74%, Tencent Music fell by over 4.3%, Astronergy Solar fell by over 3.4%, Qutoutiao fell by about 2.9%, Beike fell by over 2.1%, New Oriental, Autohome, Li Auto fell by over 1.9%, Baidu, Yum China, Daqo New Energy, ZTO Express, NetEase, Trip.com fell by up to 0.6%, DouYu, Miniso, Kanzhun, JinkoSolar, TAL Education, HollySys Automation rose by up to 0.9%, Huazhu, Sohu, Reddy Medicine, JD, Alibaba, Vipshop, Noah Wealth, XPeng rose by up to 1.81%, Nio rose by over 2.3%, Bilibili rose by over 6.6%, Yidao rose by 7.2%, LUKOIL rose by over 7.7%, Zhongjin Medical rose by over 9.8%, Yikatong Technology rose by over 11%, GigaDevice rose by 19.61%.

**Retail investors' collective stocks declined.** Game Station fell for the second consecutive day, closing down 12.13% today. BlackBerry fell by 1.71%, AMC Theatres fell by 2%, and Gaussin Electronic fell by 0.5%.

On the news side:

NVIDIA: Jeff Kilburg, Chief Investment Officer of KKM Financial, stated that after a significant increase in NVIDIA's performance this year, it may face downside risks, and now is the time to be cautious about NVIDIA. He said, "It has always been a stellar stock, holding it is very reasonable, but I think at some point, when we talk about actual performance, we need to note that NVIDIA's stock price has risen by 800%, so there may be an adjustment."

TSMC: TSMC plans to raise the prices of 3-nanometer manufacturing process by 5% starting next year, and advanced packaging by 10%-20%. It is expected that the capacity shortage will continue until 2026.

Micron Technology: Bank of America released a research report stating that it raised the target price for ARM and Micron Technology, as the AI ​​wave generated is shifting towards consumer devices including PCs and smartphones.

Tesla: Tesla has lowered the price of the Model 3 Long Range all-wheel drive version. Musk claims to be working on the Tesla Master Plan 4.

Apple: After a year, Apple will close the Pay Later program that allows customers to pay in installments, signaling the company's retreat in providing more financial services internally. On June 17, the company announced that it will no longer offer new loans through Pay Later, a service that allows users to pay in four installments for amounts up to $1,000. Prior to this, Apple announced that third-party services from Affirm Holdings Inc. and Citi will be included in the upcoming iOS 18 software.

Qualcomm: According to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Qualcomm may become the exclusive system-level chip supplier for Samsung's Galaxy S25 (compared to about 40% supply share for Galaxy S24).

GameStop (GME) CEO Ryan Cohen introduced at the shareholders' meeting: the company is focusing on profitability and avoiding speculation.

The Bank of England's interest rate decision this week, investors shake off last week's negative sentiment, most European stocks rise, all major exchanges and most industry sectors rise, and the French stock index closes up more than 0.9%, outperforming the German, Italian, and British stock indexes:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.09% at 511.49 points. It rose to 514.63 points during the session, then quickly fell to 508.78 points, hitting a new intraday low since May 6. The Euro Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.85%, ending a two-day sharp decline and moving away from the lowest closing level in nearly four months. The FTSE All-World 300 index closed up 0.12%.

The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.91%, moving away from the lowest closing level since January 25, showing some recovery from last week when the index fell by over 6.2%, marking the largest weekly decline since March 2022 Meanwhile, the German DAX 30 index rose by 0.37%, bidding farewell to the lowest closing level since May 3 last Friday. The Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 0.74%. The UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.06%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 index dropped by 0.3%.

Chip stocks strengthened in European stocks. Among the "Eleven Warriors", ASML European stocks rose by 1.72%, while Novo Nordisk fell by 1.06%. Outside of the "Eleven Warriors", chip stocks ASM International rose by 2.28%, STMicroelectronics rose by 0.84%, and BE Semiconductor Industries rose by 0.2%. In addition, Ferrari's automotive stocks rose by 1.47%.

Reports indicate that in November 2022, due to the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, the British stock market weakened at one point, allowing France to seize the title of the largest stock market in Europe. However, now, turmoil in French elections has led to a sharp decline in the stock market, allowing the UK to once again claim the title of the largest stock market in Europe.

Most U.S. Treasury yields rose by more than 5 basis points, while European bond yields continued to decline, with French 10-year bond yields rising by more than 7 basis points

At the close, most U.S. Treasury yields rose by more than 5 basis points. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by 5.89 basis points to 4.7634%, trading in the range of 4.6999%-4.7676% during the session. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose by 5.42 basis points to 4.2751%, trading in the range of 4.2266%-4.2925% during the session.

On June 17, Home Depot issued $10 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds, while more than ten other companies collectively raised over $10 billion.

In addition, the three-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.88 basis points, the five-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.13 basis points, and the seven-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.67 basis points. The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.84 basis points, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.30 basis points.

U.S. Treasury yields rise

The 10-year German bond yield, as the benchmark for the Eurozone, ended a four-day decline, rising by 5.3 basis points to 2.414%, bidding farewell to the new low since April 12 last Friday at 2.342%. The two-year German bond yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 2.814%, ending a four-day decline. The 10-year bond yields of France, Spain, Italy, Greece, and the UK rose by 7.5 basis points, 1.7 basis points, 1.4 basis points, 1.1 basis points, and 5.9 basis points, respectively Analysis pointed out that after the speeches of Kashkari, a voting member of the Federal Reserve, and Harker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2026 FOMC voter), the US bond yields rose on Monday. In addition, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank stated in a report that the political turmoil in Europe is expected to continue until July 7th. If the spreads between investment-grade and high-yield US dollar bonds reach the upper end of the 90 range and around 340 basis points respectively, credit investors should start buying on dips. If political concerns ease, higher-rated securities and banks are likely to be the first to attract buying interest.

The ICE US Dollar Index fell by 0.2%, the Japanese Yen fluctuated downward by 0.2% throughout the day, the Euro rose by 0.2%, Bitcoin futures rose by about 1.4%, and Ethereum futures surged by over 3.2%.

The DXY, which measures against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.19% to 105.349 points, with an intraday trading range of 105.647-105.306 points.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped by 0.02% to 1266.67 points, with an intraday trading range of 1269.18-1266.27 points.

The US dollar rose overnight and retraced gains during the US trading session, ending slightly lower.

Among Asian currencies, the US dollar rose by 0.21% against the Japanese Yen to 157.72. Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) against the US dollar was at 7.2701 yuan, up 10 points from the New York closing on Friday, trading overall in the range of 7.2730-7.2672 yuan.

The Euro rose by 0.20% against the US dollar, the British Pound rose by 0.13% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell by 0.07% against the Swiss Franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.07% against the US dollar, the New Zealand Dollar fell by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose by 0.01% against the Canadian Dollar.

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies rose. The CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract was at $66,540.00, up 1.37% from the New York closing on Friday.

The CME Ethereum futures DCR main contract was at $3,525.50, up 3.24% from the previous Friday.

Bitcoin returned above $66,000, erasing last Friday's plunge.

Influenced by optimistic expectations of oil demand, oil prices rose by about 2%, breaking away from three-week lows, while US natural gas fell by over 3.2%.

WTI July crude oil futures closed up $1.88, up more than 2.39%, at $80.33 per barrel, marking the first time since May 17th that it closed above the psychological $80 level. Brent August futures closed up $1.63, up more than 1.97%, at $84.25 per barrel, marking the first time since the end of April that it closed above $84 The more active trading in WTI crude oil futures saw a maximum increase of $1.93 or 2.5% in intraday trading, pushing towards the $80 integer mark. International Brent crude oil saw a maximum increase of $1.90 or 2.3%, consecutively breaking through the $83 and $84 price levels.

Crucial resistance level for crude oil prices near $81

Analysis indicates that the optimistic outlook for oil demand growth in the coming months has boosted oil prices. Reports released last week by OPEC+, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggested an improvement in oil demand in the second half of the year, which would help reduce inventories. As a result, both major benchmark oil prices recorded their first weekly gains in four weeks. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has assured that the production increase scheduled to start in October will be flexibly adjusted based on market conditions. Saudi Arabia is also increasing its focus on countries violating production quotas to bring output down to a reasonable level. OPEC+ member countries like Russia and Iraq have committed to adhering to production quotas, all of which contribute to supporting oil prices.

Moreover, analysts point out that favorable economic data released by China on Monday has benefited oil demand. In the first five months of this year, China's manufacturing investment grew strongly by 9.6%. Additionally, analysts from AEGIS hedge fund mentioned on Monday that the rising geopolitical risk premium has also supported oil prices. The Israeli military stated on Sunday that an attack by Hezbollah militants from Lebanon into Israel could lead to a serious escalation of the situation, raising concerns about a larger conflict in the Middle East.

European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures and ICE UK futures both rose before falling back, with declines exceeding 3% at the close. U.S. natural gas contracts for July saw the deepest decline of over 4% and fell below $2.80, marking the fourth consecutive day of moving away from a six-month high, with a 12% narrowing in year-to-date gains.

Gold bulls' attempted rally failed due to rising U.S. bond yields and Fed officials' speeches, gold price slipped and failed to hold above 2335, London zinc closed up over 1.7%

COMEX August gold futures fell by about 0.60% to $2334.9 per ounce at the close, failing to hold above 2335. COMEX July silver futures rose by about 0.18% to $29.525 per ounce at the close.

Gold price decline

Analysis suggests that gold prices fell due to the rise in Treasury yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. On one hand, after a significant drop last week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded slightly today, reducing the attractiveness of zero-yield gold to investors. On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated on Sunday that there is a "reasonable expectation" for one rate cut by the Fed this year, expected to take place in December In addition, analysts pointed out that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cuts, and the sensitivity of macroeconomic positions to unexpected data will remain high in the short term. The gold price may consolidate between $2300 and $2400 until the next major fundamental catalyst appears, which may not happen until July.

London industrial base metals mixed:

The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" fell by $76 to $9666 per ton. London aluminum fell by $16 to $2502 per ton, London nickel fell by $108 to $17467 per ton. London tin fell by $170 to $32148 per ton. London zinc, on the other hand, rose by $48, with an increase of over 1.73%, to $2816 per ton. London lead rose by $17 to $2156 per ton.

In addition, domestic black futures were mixed during the night session. Caustic soda futures closed flat. Coke futures rose by up to 0.15%, while asphalt, fuel oil, and coking coal rose by up to 0.58%. Shanghai lead futures rose by over 1.5%, while aluminum oxide fell by over 0.8%. Shanghai tin and nickel main contracts rose by 0.31% and fell by 0.35%, respectively