Both presidential candidates are not well-liked! Is Powell unlikely to be re-elected?

Basic lock-in of the Democratic presidential candidate Harris in 2018, when she was in the Senate, voted against the confirmation of Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, instead siding with progressive party members. Meanwhile, then-President Trump initially appointed Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, but he has always been hostile towards him.

Frank Kelly, senior political strategist at investment firm DWS, told Fortune: "Once Powell's term expires in 2026, the likelihood of him being re-nominated by Harris or Trump is very low, I think he knows that. It's interesting, he may not necessarily want to continue. He may retire after a great success (achieving a soft landing)."

When asked if Harris would re-nominate Powell, her campaign team did not immediately respond. Trump, on the other hand, has stated that he will let Powell complete his term, but did not say what he would do afterwards. His campaign team did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

During Powell's tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy performed strongly, but was later impacted by an economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the recession fading, U.S. inflation soared, reaching around 9% in the summer of 2022. However, Frederic Mishkin, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, believes that Powell's work in "controlling inflation without causing an economic recession" since then is a "great achievement," which may give him a chance to stay on after 2026.

He said that if Powell successfully achieves a soft landing, then "he does have a chance of being reappointed by Harris."

Trump nominated Powell in November 2017 after deciding not to retain Yellen. His nomination was confirmed by a vote of 84:13.

Four Republican senators opposed Powell's nomination, including Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who voted against along with Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, independent Bernie Sanders, and other progressive figures.

At the time, Powell was seen as a moderate pragmatist and a wise choice for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman. However, these progressive Democrats were likely wary of Powell's reluctance to commit to further regulating big banks. Kelly also said they believed Powell did not adequately consider the factors of low-income families in the Fed's economic analysis. Meanwhile, the Republican senators who voted against Powell did not support the Fed's stimulative monetary policy.

Now, with Harris basically locking in the Democratic presidential candidate, her fate is once again intertwined with Powell's.

This time, Harris is trying to praise the economic achievements of the Biden administration - historically strong job market, cooling inflation, strengthening unions, while also distancing herself from an unpleasant fact that ordinary Americans still feel pessimistic about the economy According to the Associated Press, Harris is expected to adopt tax policies similar to Biden's, raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Although Harris has started to express her own views on economic issues, she continues Biden's focus on working-class and middle-class voters. However, Harris's economic platform in the early 2020 primaries shows that she may be more inclined towards expansionary fiscal policies than Biden.

Mishkin believes that in terms of monetary policy and cooperation with the Federal Reserve, Harris may also take a laissez-faire attitude similar to Biden and most recent presidents.

He said, "Trump completely violated this, he had strong opinions about Powell, whom he appointed himself."

During his presidency, Trump broke decades of precedent that presidents should not interfere with monetary policy. Instead, Trump chose to criticize and sometimes insult Powell during his tenure.

Trump increased pressure in 2019 as he believed Powell was too slow in cutting interest rates. In September of the same year, Trump called Federal Reserve staff "boneheads." Trump's barrage of criticism raised genuine concerns that he might try to dismiss Powell, which would be unprecedented.

Until recently, Trump continued to attack Powell. In February, he accused Powell of being "political" and lacking the independence needed to manage the Federal Reserve. Trump said in an interview with Fox Business, "In my opinion, he's trying to lower rates, maybe for someone to get elected, I don't know."

In April this year, The Wall Street Journal published a report detailing a plan by Trump allies to weaken the Fed's independence, allowing the president to be involved in setting interest rates. At the time, Trump's campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles stated that the report should not be "considered an official report."

Powell has long maintained that he and other Fed officials do not consider political factors when deciding on monetary policy.

At this week's Fed meeting, Powell may provide further guidance on rate cuts, with the current market widely expecting a cut in September as long-term inflation continues to fade. If timed correctly, a rate cut could support economic growth in the face of signs of a cooling economy, meaning Powell will successfully navigate the delicate art of economic balance.

Mishkin said, "Praise should be given where it's due."