CICC: Low probability of US economic recession, but market volatility may persist

The research report stated that, at present, we reiterate that the fundamental resilience of the US economy remains strong, and recently stimulated by the relaxation of financial conditions, consumer and investment enthusiasm remains unabated. Looking ahead, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts easing the pressure of high short-term interest rates on small businesses, the probability of an economic recession is relatively low. However, we caution that due to factors such as unwinding of yen carry trades, geopolitical risks, the US presidential election, and tightening US dollar liquidity, the probability of sustained high market volatility is high