Jibang Consulting: NVIDIA will launch Blackwell Ultra and B200A next year, which will increase the consumption ratio of HBM3e 12hi to 40%
Jibang Consulting predicts that NVIDIA will launch products such as Blackwell Ultra and B200A, increasing its procurement share in the HBM market to over 70%. By 2025, the proportion of HBM3e 12hi products in HBM3e is expected to exceed 40%. NVIDIA's HBM capacity is expected to double by 2025 as AI chip and single-chip capacity increase. While other manufacturers are also starting to mass produce HBM3e, NVIDIA's product shipments will drive the growth of HBM consumption in the market
According to the latest HBM report from Jibang Consulting obtained by Zhitong Finance APP, with the iteration of AI chips, the capacity of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) carried by a single chip has significantly increased. NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is currently the largest buyer in the HBM market, and it is expected that after the launch of products such as Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025, its procurement share in the HBM market will exceed 70%. HBM3e 12hi is a key focus in the market in the second half of 2024. It is estimated that the upcoming Blackwell Ultra in 2025 will use 8 HBM3e 12hi chips, GB200 may also be upgraded, in addition to the planning of B200A. Therefore, it is estimated that the share of 12hi products in HBM3e in 2025 will increase to 40%, with potential for further growth.
Jibang Consulting stated that taking NVIDIA's Hopper series chips as an example, the first-generation H100 had an HBM capacity of 80GB, while the H200 to be released in 2024 will increase to 144GB. With the growth of AI chips and single-chip capacity, the overall consumption of HBM in the industry has significantly increased, with an estimated annual growth rate exceeding 200% in 2024, and HBM consumption doubling again in 2025.
According to a recent supply chain survey by Jibang Consulting, NVIDIA plans to offer a reduced version of the B200A to OEM customers, which will use 4 HBM3e 12hi chips (12-layer stack), half the amount of other B-series chips. TrendForce Jibang Consulting pointed out that even though the HBM capacity of the B200A is smaller, it does not affect the overall market's HBM consumption, as chip diversification helps increase the purchasing willingness of small and medium-sized customers.
NVIDIA's share of HBM3e consumption is expected to exceed 85% in 2025.
Jibang Consulting stated that although SK hynix and Micron began mass production of HBM3e in the second quarter of 2024, the shipment of NVIDIA's H200 will drive NVIDIA's consumption share in the overall HBM3e market, estimated to exceed 60% for the full year of 2024. In 2025, with the full adoption of HBM3e on the Blackwell platform, increased product layers, and the rise in single-chip HBM capacity, NVIDIA's overall consumption of HBM3e in the market will further increase to over 85%.
As the industry enters the HBM3e 12hi stage, the technical difficulty increases, and the verification progress becomes more crucial. The order allocation ratio may be affected by the sequence of verification completion. Currently, the products of the three major HBM suppliers are all in the verification stage, with Samsung leading in verification progress and actively increasing its market share. This year's production capacity is roughly determined, with the main production capacity still focused on HBM3e 8hi (8-layer stack), therefore, the growth in output of HBM3e 12hi will mainly contribute to 2025.