"September Curse" Coming True? | Overseas Major Asset Weekly Report
The seasonal weakness in September has once again manifested in the US stock market. Non-farm data fell short of expectations, with the addition of new jobs in August lower than expected, further exacerbating economic pessimism. The Nasdaq and S&P fell by nearly 6% and over 4% respectively during the week. Tech stocks and AI stocks were sold off by investors, with chip stocks falling by 12% for the week, marking the worst performance in four years. In addition, European stocks, oil prices, and the US dollar index all performed poorly, with WTI oil prices hitting a low not seen in over a year
The "September Curse" was fulfilled in the first week (9.2-9.6). September has always been the worst-performing month for the U.S. stock market in terms of seasonality, and this time seems to be no exception. From a fundamental perspective, important non-farm data made it difficult for the market to "get its wish", as the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2% as expected. However, the addition of 142,000 new jobs in August was lower than the expected 165,000, and the previous value was also significantly revised downwards, adding to signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
Economic expectations turned pessimistic again, with the Nasdaq 100 falling nearly 6% for the week, marking its worst weekly performance in nearly two years, while the S&P index fell over 4% for the week, its largest weekly decline in a year and a half. Investors accelerated selling of tech stocks, AI stocks, and chip stocks, with a 12% decline for the week, the worst in four years. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 3.52% for the week, marking the largest weekly decline since early August.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, more sensitive to interest rates, fell below 3.60% to a two-year low, with a cumulative weekly decline of 28 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 20 basis points for the week, ending a 26-month long inversion with short-term yield rates. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.5% for the week.
WTI October crude oil futures closed at $67.67 per barrel, hitting a new low in over a year. It fell 7.99% for the week. Brent November crude oil futures closed at $71.06 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 9.82%. Spot gold briefly fell below $2500, ending the week with a slight decline. Silver fell 2.14% for the week.
