Zhitong
2024.09.13 13:01
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A milestone in innovation is inevitable! The gold bulls firmly believe that the price of gold will soar to $3000

With major central banks around the world easing monetary policies and intense competition in the US presidential election, the bullish sentiment on gold is expected to drive prices up to $3000 per ounce. Spot gold once hit a historical high of $2572.81 per ounce, rising over 24% due to safe-haven demand. Citigroup Research predicts that gold prices will reach $3000 in mid-2025 and $2600 by the end of 2024. The market is watching the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for gold due to low interest rates. Global central banks actively cutting rates are adding momentum to the rise in gold prices

According to the Wisdom Financial APP, as major central banks around the world ease monetary policies and the intense competition in the U.S. presidential election, gold bulls firmly believe that the price of gold will soar to a new record, with expectations to reach the milestone of $3000 per ounce.

On Friday, spot gold briefly hit a historical high of $2572.81 per ounce, poised to achieve the strongest annual performance since 2020. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with strong buying from central banks, have driven the price of gold up by over 24% so far this year.

Aakash Doshi, Head of North American Commodities Research at Citigroup, stated that driven by U.S. rate cuts, strong ETF demand, and over-the-counter physical demand, the price of gold may reach $3000 per ounce by mid-2025 and $2600 per ounce by the end of 2024.

Last week, the World Gold Council stated that global physically-backed gold ETFs saw inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August.

As the Federal Reserve's next interest rate meeting approaches on September 18, market attention is currently focused on the U.S. potentially cutting rates for the first time since 2020. Low interest rates are often favorable for gold as it is a non-yielding asset.

CME's FedWatch tool shows that investors currently estimate a 59% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S., with a 41% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, mentioned that if upcoming data shows risks to economic growth and a weak job market, it will increase the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November or December. This would boost the momentum for gold price increases and potentially push the price above $3000 sooner.

Currently, major central banks worldwide are actively cutting rates, with the European Central Bank announcing a second 25 basis point rate cut just last Thursday.

Joseph Cavatoni, Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, stated, "We are also assessing other factors that stimulate Western investor demand, including the upcoming U.S. election which may increase uncertainty, and gold as a tool to hedge immediate event risks."

The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5 may drive up gold prices, as potential market volatility could prompt investors to turn to safe-haven gold.

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, mentioned that reaching the $3000 per ounce target is possible, adding that this scenario could be driven by post-election political turmoil.

Investment banks and analysts are increasingly bullish on gold, with Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs showing the highest confidence in gold's recent rally, stating that gold remains their preferred tool to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, mentioned that geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and potential changes in monetary policy, especially after the U.S. presidential election, collectively provide reasons for the bullish outlook on gold as a hard asset.

Macquarie Bank in Australia raised its gold price forecast this week, currently expecting the quarterly average peak price of gold in the first quarter of next year to reach $2600 per ounce, with the potential to soar to $3000 Analysts at Macquarie stated: "Despite the challenges facing the fiscal outlook in developed markets, the structural outlook for gold remains positive. However, it can be said that the gold price has already factored in many factors, and there may be cyclical headwinds later next year."