The supply chain is in disarray, with investors worried about the demand for iPhone 16

On Monday, due to investors' concerns about the demand for iPhone 16, stocks related to Apple Chain generally fell.

Apple's stock price fell by more than 3.85% at one point, hitting a low of $213.92 since August 9th. TSMC ADR fell by about 3% at one point, ending the trend of three consecutive trading days of gains. AMD fell by 10.48% at one point, closing at $119.21, approaching the low of $107.62 on August 5th. Micron Technology fell by 5.81% at one point. Infineon Technologies Frankfurt stock price fell by 2.2% at one point.

Earlier, Guo Mingji, known as the most accurate analyst for Apple, stated that the pre-order sales volume of the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend is estimated to be about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the iPhone 15 series last year, with the key being the lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series. Guo Mingji compiled data on the pre-order sales, average delivery time, and pre-order shipment volume of each iPhone 16 model from the Apple website to make this estimate.

An article on the Wall Street News website also pointed out signs of weak sales of the iPhone 16 series. The article indicated that on September 14th, the e-commerce pre-sale performance of the iPhone 16 series showed that the iPhone 16 Pro Max was sold out on multiple platforms within seconds. However, this "popularity" is based on the "price reduction upon full release of the series" and the pre-sale breaking price.

Guo Mingji stated that one of the key factors for the decline in demand for the iPhone 16 series is that the main selling point, Apple Intelligence, was not released with the iPhone 16. In addition, the intense competition in the Chinese market continues to affect the demand for iPhones.

Last week, Apple held an event called "Glowtime." However, the first batch of iPhone 16 with Apple Intelligence functionality will only be released in the form of a test version next month. The most anticipated feature of the iPhone 16 series is the Apple Intelligence functionality.

In contrast to the unfavorable situation mentioned above, before the release of the iPhone 16 series, Guo Mingji repeatedly expressed optimism about the market sales performance of the iPhone 16 series.

Wall Street Banks Mention Decrease in Demand

Analysts from Barclays, JP Morgan, and Bank of America also wrote in their latest reports that compared to last year, the delivery times may indicate a decrease in consumer demand for the latest iPhone Pro models.

Barclays analysts stated:

Based on our conversations with distributors and analysis of pre-order data from major e-commerce websites in China, the total pre-order volume in the past few days has decreased year-on-year, with a low proportion of Pro models. Pro model sales have decreased by double digits year-on-year, while Base and Plus model sales have recorded growth

The Chinese version of Apple Intelligence is not expected to be launched until 2025, which may dampen people's early enthusiasm for the iPhone 16.

Macroeconomic conditions and competition continue to weigh on iPhone sales in China. Apple has had to rely on significant discounts to help boost sales of the iPhone 15 in China.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley use early delivery times in key markets as a demand indicator, stating in their report:

Early delivery times indicate that demand for the base model of the iPhone 16 in the first week (pre-order week) is consistent with the iPhone 15 series, while early demand indicators for the Pro model are slightly weaker compared to the iPhone 15 series.

Analysts at Bank of America, tracking iPhone shipment dates on Apple's own website and various carrier websites, stated:

The delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models have been extended, but on average have decreased compared to this stage in last year's pre-order cycle.

While extended delivery dates can reflect demand for the iPhone, other factors such as supply, inventory, distribution, and pricing may also impact delivery dates.

Apple has reduced the selling price of the iPhone 16 in Australia and India