FXStreet: What changes will there be in the September Fed Dot Plot?
The September Federal Reserve dot plot forecast shows that several banks expect to cut interest rates three times in 2024, each time by 25 basis points, totaling a 75 basis point cut. Danske Bank and Barclays Bank also predict further rate cuts in 2025, with 6 times and 125 basis points respectively. Overall, the main reasons for the rate cuts are the decline in inflation forecasts and the rise in unemployment rates
[Jinshi Compilation: What changes will be seen in the September FOMC Dot Plot?]
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Bank of Canada: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, higher than the median expectation of 25 basis points shown in the previous dot plot.
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Danske Bank: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, in 2025 there will be 6 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, and in 2026 there will be no interest rate cuts, with the final rate at 3.00-3.25%.
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Barclays Bank: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, in 2025 there will be a decrease of 125 basis points, reflecting a decline in inflation forecasts in the next two years and a significant increase in unemployment rate forecasts this year.
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Nordea Bank: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, followed by another 100 basis points cut next year, totaling a decrease of 175 basis points.
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Bank of Montreal: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, with a decrease of 125 basis points next year, and the long-term or "neutral" level may be raised. Some participants expect a rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year.
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Economist Gregory Daco from Ernst & Young: The dot plot indicates that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, with a cumulative decrease of 75 basis points, and an expected decrease of 100 basis points in 2025