Morgan Stanley: Strong US dollar may threaten the rise of US stocks
Morgan Stanley's Chief US Stock Strategist Michael Wilson stated that the strengthening US dollar may threaten the rise of US stocks, potentially causing a slowdown in the stock market rebound. Despite the record highs in the US stock market this year, the Bloomberg US Dollar Index has risen by about 2% since early October. At the same time, a survey by US banks shows that fund managers have significantly increased their allocation to stocks, while reducing their cash holdings, reflecting investors' optimism about the Fed's rate cuts and the possibility of an economic soft landing
According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Stock Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar may be one of the few obstacles threatening the upward momentum of U.S. stocks. He said, "The strengthening of the U.S. dollar may once again lead to a slowdown in the stock market rebound." "This may be something we are currently paying attention to, which could affect the momentum of U.S. stocks repeatedly hitting new highs."
U.S. stocks have repeatedly hit new highs this year. As investors prepare for a new round of earnings season, the S&P 500 index set its 46th historical closing high of 2024 on Monday. However, at the same time, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has risen by about 2% since early October, as better-than-expected inflation and non-farm payroll data have led investors to reduce bets on the speed of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Michael Wilson stated that the strong momentum in U.S. stocks has expanded to different sectors, driven by central bank easing monetary policy, "This situation will continue until our economy is truly impacted, or liquidity is restricted."
Meanwhile, a "sell signal" for global stock markets was seen in a survey conducted by U.S. bank strategists led by Michael Hartnett from October 4th to 10th. The survey showed that fund managers significantly increased their allocation to stocks while reducing exposure to bonds, with the cash proportion in global investment portfolios dropping from 4.2% to 3.9%. In a report, the strategists stated that this is the largest increase in investor optimism since June 2020 due to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, China's stimulus plan, and a soft landing