After a rebound of over 60% from the low, the market is closely watching BYD's "overseas story"

Against the backdrop of this year's expected record-breaking car sales, Wall Street analysts say that BYD needs a convincing overseas growth story to stimulate its stock price to reach new highs.

As a global leader in the electric vehicle market, BYD has already sold over 1.1 million electric vehicles in the first nine months of this year. The company is set to release its latest financial report on October 30th. Market expectations currently indicate that BYD's quarterly revenue is expected to surpass Tesla's (USD 25.2 billion) for the first time, reaching USD 28.8 billion, setting a new historical high.

The company's stock price has already rebounded by 66% from its low point in February. Wall Street analysts believe that BYD's overseas sales are key to further driving the company's stock price up in the future.

Financiere de L Echiquier's Asia stock manager Kevin Net stated: "Exports are BYD's next major growth driver and may become a significant contributor to the company's growth starting next year."

Public data shows that BYD's overseas sales in the first nine months of this year are approximately 300,000 vehicles, making it challenging for the company to achieve its target of 450,000 vehicles for the whole year (market consensus expectation).

Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao stated that in order to achieve the 450,000 target, BYD's average monthly overseas sales in the fourth quarter need to reach 51,000 vehicles, a 54% increase from the monthly average of 33,000 vehicles in the first nine months of this year, requiring the company to go all out.

Tim Hsiao believes that achieving the overseas sales target is crucial for the ASEAN and Brazilian markets. Brazil currently accounts for 30%-35% of BYD's total overseas sales, while Thailand accounts for around 15%. The rapid growth in Indonesia is also worth noting. After its debut in January this year, BYD's sales in Indonesia have grown rapidly, with Indonesia becoming one of BYD's top three markets in August, surpassing Israel and ranking only behind Brazil and Thailand.

（Overseas market size in the first eight months of this year）

Nomura analyst Joel Ying is relatively optimistic, believing that although global demand for pure electric vehicles (BEVs) seems to be slowing down this year, BYD has maintained robust export growth so far.

Looking at the data provided by overseas national automotive associations, local demand for BYD (overseas retail sales) seems to be showing an encouraging upward trend. Currently, the company has approximately six overseas factories under construction or in the planning stage, including: 1) Thailand (having sold 3,500 Dolphin models in the past two months), 2) Brazil (production may start in the first half of 2025), 3) Hungary (operations expected to start by the end of 2025 or 2026), and 4) Indonesia / Mexico / Turkey Joel Ying optimistically stated that BYD has a complete overseas business plan and is actively advancing, with bright prospects to become a global car manufacturer. In the next decade, these factories will be key to BYD's expansion in markets such as ASEAN and Latin America