Fasten your seatbelt! The next 10 days are crucial for the global market

In the next 10 days, a series of heavyweight events will intensify, will the market enter a roller coaster mode?

This Wednesday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury will announce the "quarterly refinancing" plan for U.S. debt. On Thursday and Friday, the U.S. September PCE price index and October non-farm payroll report will be released. At the same time, the U.S. stock earnings season is at its peak, with the "Mag 7" including Google, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon set to announce their third-quarter results this week.

Next week, the market will also face the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the Federal Reserve currently in a quiet period before the policy meeting.

It is worth noting that according to Xinhua News Agency, the 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of China will be held in Beijing from November 4th to 8th. The Chairman's meeting proposed that the meeting will review draft laws on preschool education, revisions to the mineral resources law, draft energy laws, and revisions to anti-money laundering laws.

The successive heavyweight events are expected to impact the U.S. stock market and even the global market. Analyst Cameron Crise warns that the market needs to be prepared for potential sharp fluctuations.

Whether you focus on the macro or micro level, it's best to stay steady this week. Five out of the seven major U.S. tech giants will announce their earnings from Tuesday to Thursday, and Lilly will also release its earnings. This means that 6 out of the top 10 S&P companies will deliver market-moving news. Coupled with PCE and non-farm data, this could lead to potential sharp fluctuations.

So far this year, just five large tech companies - Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon - have contributed about 46% of the S&P 500's gains. With the current unprecedented concentration in the U.S. stock market, the earnings data of large tech stocks this week will affect the overall market sentiment ahead of the U.S. election.

For the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicators - the PCE price index and the October non-farm payroll report - they may be key factors affecting the Fed's November interest rate decision. Against the backdrop of cooling U.S. inflation, several Fed officials have recently emphasized that the health of the U.S. labor force will be a focus of attention.

The Fedwatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on November 7th has risen to 96%, with a probability of staying put at 3.7%.

The market's expectations for a Fed rate cut have weakened, and U.S. bonds have recently faced massive selling. The next 10 days will also be crucial for the U.S. bond market. The U.S. Treasury announced on Wednesday the size of the upcoming bond issuance, with the market expecting the department to maintain a stable bond auction size in the next quarter.

The U.S. election has also added uncertainty to the U.S. bond market, with some investors speculating that if Trump wins, it will push up U.S. bond yields. His tax cuts and tariff policies could exacerbate inflationary pressures and keep interest rates high Currently, expectations for Trump's victory are rising. According to recent forecasts from The Economist in the UK, Trump is expected to win 276 electoral votes in next month's election, while the US Vice President and Democratic candidate Harris is projected to receive 262. The estimated probability of Trump winning is 54%.

Sinead Colton Grant, Chief Investment Officer at New York Wealth Bank, stated: "This is a very crucial period, and a lot could happen in the next two weeks."