Hong Kong Stock Market Review: Policy-driven

Recently, the market has been driven by policies, for example, in the photovoltaic industry where there is severe overcapacity, but this morning the market opened sharply lower.

Domestic production capacity exceeds more than half of global demand, so it can only rely on severe internal competition. Currently, the only way out is through supply-side reforms. Based on the industry's nature of continuous investment, it is difficult to maintain technological development advantages under long-term loss-making conditions. Stricter regulations may still need to be introduced.

On the other hand, the wind turbine industry is also one of the industries severely affected by price wars, but this year's bidding and corporate performance show signs of stability. For example, Goldwind, a leading wind turbine company, narrowed its losses in the wind turbine business from 10 billion in the first three quarters of last year to 3 billion in the same period this year. The overall gross profit margin was -3% last year, and the company expects it to increase to 6% this year and reach 8% by 2025.

The reduction in losses is partly due to sales growth, stable bidding prices in China this year, and the continuous growth of high-margin offshore wind power and export business. The company expects the overall proportion to increase from 18% this year to 40% next year.

In terms of gross profit margin, it is expected to be 3% domestically this year, much lower than the 11-15% for exports and over 10% for offshore wind power. It is worth noting that under continuous losses, overseas wind turbine giants GE Vernova and Siemens Gamesa are both reducing their presence outside of Europe and America, providing Chinese manufacturers with opportunities. However, there are signs of low-price competition from Chinese manufacturers in the export market.

Although most companies are losing money in the wind turbine business, overall profitability can still be maintained with support from other businesses such as wind farm development. Therefore, whether developing more profitable export businesses will give companies more confidence to engage in price wars again is a question that needs to be considered.

In addition, with the official launch of Apple AI, related supply chain stocks have also performed well today, and there have been many news reports about mobile agents recently. Although iPhone sales were previously downgraded by analysts, if subsequent applications and updates exceed expectations, and with the current advanced internet dissemination, sales may be boosted at any time.

In any case, it seems that mobile phones are the easiest and most commercially promising way for AI agents to land, and it is believed that the main beneficiaries will probably be mobile phone manufacturers