Hurricane "Blowout" Last Jobs Report Before Election Day Will Guide the Fed's Next Move?

The employment report on Friday will be the last report the Federal Reserve will see before the policy meeting next week, but this report is difficult to interpret.

Zhītōng Cáijīng APP noted that the floods and power outages caused by hurricanes Helen and Milton have paralyzed many businesses, which may have an impact on employment figures for October. In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated last week that as of October 12 (the survey week for the report), a total of 44,000 workers (mostly from Boeing) were on strike.

Overall, the median forecast for an increase of 110,000 jobs in October will be one of the smallest increases since the end of 2020, less than half of the September increase. Economists' surveys show a wide range of forecasts, ranging from a decrease of 10,000 to an increase of 180,000.

With less than a week until the presidential election, it is unclear how American voters will interpret this warning-filled data. However, this report may become another ammunition for former President Trump and Republicans, who have harshly criticized the economic policies of Democratic challenger Vice President Harris.

Economists' forecasts for non-farm employment in October have the widest range in nearly a year.

As inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target, Fed officials are now paying more attention to the labor market, which has been gradually cooling. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, said policymakers will calmly respond to these data and focus on lowering interest rates that are currently seen as having a restraining effect on the economy.

"Only significantly unexpected employment or inflation data would make them deviate from this path," Zandi said. The threshold for them to not fulfill the current interest rate cut commitments made to the market is quite high.

Fed Governor Waller said earlier this month that the employment report is "difficult to interpret," but he expects hurricanes and the Boeing strike to lead to a decrease of more than 100,000 jobs. These data were released during the traditional "quiet period" before the Fed's policy meeting on November 6th to 7th, and the market currently expects the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point during the meeting.

Hurricane Helen made landfall on September 26, while Hurricane Milton made landfall on October 9 - a time when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was surveying businesses to count employment figures. However, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker said it may be too late to have a significant impact on October's data Impact of hurricanes on US employment

The employment report consists of two surveys - one is a household survey and the other is an establishment survey - each with different standards for measuring employment.

In order for severe weather to reduce BLS's monthly payroll (based on the survey of establishments), employees must be involuntarily unemployed for the entire pay period, including the 12th day. Even if the person technically still has a job, they will not be counted as employed.

However, the household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate does not exclude these individuals. It also reports the number of people who have jobs but are unable to work due to weather conditions, so economists and Federal Reserve officials may rely more on this dataset.

According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Regardless of the final outcome, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics often comments on the impact of storms on the data, and state-level data released two weeks later will show the impact on areas affected by the storm, such as North Carolina, Florida, and others - helping to provide further clarity.

Anna Wong and her team at Bloomberg Economics stated, "We expect the October US non-farm employment report to show the first negative employment data since December 2020... Most of the weakness is due to weather-related disruptions, but we also see a slowdown in cyclical industries. Excluding temporary factors and adjusting for exaggeration, basic employment growth may be below the speed required for a stable unemployment rate."

In addition to impacting the job market, hurricanes may have also dampened the overall economy in the early fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs' Walker said that economic growth typically cools in the month of a natural disaster and the following month before rebounding.

Walker said, "Hurricane Ida is the deadliest hurricane since Hurricane Katrina, affecting nearly 10% of the US population at a major disaster level, with estimated comprehensive physical losses of around $90 billion, despite high uncertainty."

Goldman Sachs expects GDP to decline by 0.3 percentage points this quarter due to the impact on industrial production, retail sales, and construction, before rebounding by a similar magnitude in early 2025. The government will release the first estimate of third-quarter GDP on Wednesday, with the third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate expected to reach 3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong consumer and business spending, matching the previous quarter