Betting on nuclear energy! Private equity bets on "the next AI trading"

As the AI ​​boom continues to rise, the demand for electricity in AI infrastructure is increasing day by day. According to media reports, some of the world's largest private equity management companies are actively preparing to provide financing and invest in nuclear power plant projects.

Sources familiar with the matter revealed to Bloomberg News that Carlyle Group Inc. has been in contact with nuclear-related credit investments, while Brookfield Asset Management is considering increasing its investment in the nuclear energy industry. It is reported that Apollo Global Management Inc. is in negotiations to provide financing for the construction of the Hinkley Point nuclear power plant in the UK.

Analysis suggests that by providing financing for nuclear energy projects, alternative asset management companies such as private equity firms can channel a large amount of cash into assets with stable returns and growing demand. Climate goals, economic electrification, and the rapid growth in electricity demand for large AI computing capabilities are increasing investors' interest in this stable, low-carbon power source.

AI Electricity Demand Surges, Private Equity Funds Enter the Fray

Previously, due to years of stagnation in nuclear energy investments in the United States and Europe, some nuclear reactors were shut down due to the boom in shale gas leading to low natural gas prices, as well as the impact of wind and solar power prices. In addition, private equity capital is often plagued by delays in nuclear project construction and cost overruns.

However, the huge energy demand from the AI industry has led to a series of recent transactions. Last month, Microsoft announced a power agreement to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant; Amazon and Google are also investing in the development of small modular reactors.

Andy Champ, project manager for the GE Vernova and Hitachi Limited small modular reactor joint project in the UK, stated,

"We are seeing more and more private equity interest in nuclear energy, companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon need stable power supply, and wind and solar energy alone cannot meet this demand."

Champ also mentioned that nuclear energy can provide investors with the kind of regulated, secure, and profitable investment opportunities that attract them. UK nuclear power plants enjoy government-guaranteed prices or returns, and small modular reactors may also receive similar treatment, helping to reduce costs and accelerate deployment.

However, despite the increasing investor interest, challenges still exist. Safety issues continue to affect public support for new nuclear projects, and cost overruns and delays in nuclear projects are notorious. For example, Southern Co.'s Vogtle nuclear power plant, the first new nuclear reactor built in the United States in over 30 years, is scheduled to be completed in 2024, seven years behind schedule and over $20 billion over budget.

At the same time, the demand for electricity from tech companies has raised concerns about the impact on other businesses and households. Amazon recently purchased a $65 million data center campus in Pennsylvania and signed a long-term power agreement with a nearby nuclear power plant, causing dissatisfaction in the local community.

The US federal regulatory agency will hold a meeting this week to discuss the risks of electricity shortages and infrastructure costs that may arise from data centers being located near power generation facilities. If the investments required to support these expansions result in excessive costs for other consumers, so-called "hyperscale" tech companies may face resistance

Long Project Cycle, Expected Returns, Private Equity Likes It

According to a report released last week by Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, by 2020, the energy demand for "super-large-scale" enterprise data centers will be equivalent to adding the electricity consumption of three New York City to the U.S. grid.

Robert Bittencourt, a partner at Apollo, mentioned that existing power plants can expand their capacity to fill temporary power gaps as new projects come online. He stated, "If the U.S. nuclear power new construction market does indeed develop, its cash flow and long-term investment nature are very suitable for our capital pool, mainly for retirement funds."

Ben Higson, a partner in the Mergers and Acquisitions and Capital Markets team at Vinson & Elkins, also believes that private equity's interest in nuclear energy is partly due to "abundant idle funds" and clear investment expectations, even if the returns are lower than usual projects.

"We expect that in the coming years, private equity and other funds will be more willing to adopt this long-term perspective."

However, the world's largest private equity firm, Blackstone Inc., does not hold an optimistic view on the nuclear energy industry, as new nuclear power plants take a decade or longer to build, which they consider a lengthy wait. An anonymous executive at the company revealed to the media that Blackstone is still seeking opportunities in other areas of nuclear energy, including existing assets and service providers.

Investment managers, on the other hand, seem more optimistic. The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index, which tracks the performance of companies related to advanced reactors, public facilities, construction, and fuel industries, has nearly doubled in the past year.

Currently, private equity has entered the nuclear energy sector and invested in some startups developing new technologies. Ares Management Corp. invested in X-energy, which recently reached an agreement with Amazon, while venture capital firm Terra Talent invested in Kairos Power.

Brookfield Infrastructure Group is looking for new nuclear energy investment opportunities in response to the increasing commercial acceptance of such projects in the market. David Krant, CFO of Brookfield Infrastructure Group, told the media that the "biggest obstacles" in the nuclear energy sector currently lie in financing and risk sharing, with large-scale enterprises also participating in developing new electricity acquisition frameworks