DJT plummets 22%, has the U.S. election reversed?

Source: HeHe YouMing W

The U.S. election also relies on jokes to fool the retail investors. Last night, the latest news showed that Harris is significantly leading Trump by over 10% in three swing states:

In Arizona, among early voters, 56% support Harris, while 44% support Trump, giving Harris a 12-point lead over Trump. In North Carolina, among early voters, 55% support Harris, while 43% support Trump, also giving Harris a 12-point lead over Trump. In Georgia, among early voters, 55% support Harris, while 45% support Trump, giving Harris a 10-point lead over Trump. These data are very important because these three states are key swing states. In total, there are seven swing states in the U.S. that can determine the outcome of the presidential election. In previous polls, Harris and Trump were tied overall in the seven swing states, with Trump only clearly leading Harris in Nevada. Among the other four swing states, Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, the most among swing states. In the past five presidential elections, Democrats have won Pennsylvania four times, with Trump winning it only in 2016, ultimately winning the U.S. election.

Last night, NBC News also updated the early voting data, showing that Harris is significantly leading, especially in Pennsylvania, where she is also far ahead of Trump.

From the early voting and the latest polls, especially in the swing states, it feels like Harris and Trump have switched places. Voting for president in the U.S. is somewhat like trading stocks in a big market; jokes are flying everywhere, fooling retail investors into taking the bait, and nothing is really reliable—only the final results matter.

I see that the relatively authoritative polling website RCP still shows Trump with a slight lead over Harris. However, both sides are indeed quite close, and whoever can win the swing states will win the election.

A friend reminded me yesterday to be cautious if Harris comes to power, as the election results could be difficult to produce, and a repeat of the Capitol Hill riots in 2021 is not impossible. If that really happens, it would lead to a significant drop in U.S. stocks and a rebound in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Yesterday, I started to reduce my positions in stocks related to Trump's victory. Unfortunately, my TRS cannot trade after hours. When I woke up yesterday morning and saw DJT and Coinbase closing with a high volume doji, I already felt it was a short-term top signal. If I could trade after hours, I would have closed my remaining positions yesterday morning. However, it’s okay; I sold all my DJT and Coinbase shares at the market open last night. Speculative money, a little profit is better than none, and it feels quite sneaky Of course, Harris is not guaranteed to win, but at least she can slightly reverse the expectations of Trump's imminent inauguration from a few days ago. If Harris really wins, it would be bearish for the U.S. stock market because she advocates for tax increases. However, Harris does not advocate for comprehensive tariff increases, which would be beneficial for the export sector of ordinary Chinese consumer goods. But now there is a very peculiar logic: if Trump comes to power and starts a trade war, China would need to vigorously stimulate domestic demand. Therefore, if Harris takes office, will the fiscal stimulus intensity decrease?

In this tumultuous period, just by looking at the color of our cover (blue as the main color and yellow as a supplement), you should know that I recommend a very low position. Let's wait for the U.S. election matters to pass and see the situation after mid-November before continuing to gamble.

I sincerely hope Harris wins because the Democratic Party's set of leftist thoughts and policies is extremely nonsensical. They will weaken America's strength from within over the next five years. The U.S.-China confrontation is actually very difficult for us because China is a manufacturing economy while the U.S. is a consumption-based economy. We are the party B confronting party A, the merchants confronting the customers, which is naturally challenging. Although Trump's actions are quite absurd, the Republican Party's small government approach, limiting government power, cutting government budgets, and reducing taxes for businesses is actually beneficial for the U.S. economy in the long run.

I have always believed that the U.S. economy may fall into recession next year. If it's Trump, the U.S. stock market could drop by 20%-30%, and then there would be monetary easing to rescue the market, which would then rebound. But if it's Harris, she might patch things up in various ways, applying band-aids to cover up economic issues, dragging it out for a while longer. In the end, it could either lead to stagflation or a more severe recession, causing the U.S. stock market to drop even more.

That would be the time for us to pick up money in the U.S