The outlook for oil prices is grim! On the eve of OPEC's production increase, American oil giants are aggressively ramping up production

As OPEC considers increasing production, major oil companies in Europe and the United States report significant output growth, bringing greater downside risks to oil prices.

In the latest quarterly financial reports, giants like Exxon Mobil and Chevron indicated varying degrees of production increases. Specifically:

Exxon Mobil's oil and gas production increased by 24% year-on-year, driven by a $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources;

Chevron's production grew by 7%, with the company halving its capital expenditures, yet its oil and gas output is still up 27% compared to a decade ago;

Royal Dutch Shell and British BP increased their production by 4% and 2%, respectively, despite their net-zero emissions targets being more aggressive than their American counterparts.

The growth in production from U.S. oil giants is primarily attributed to the Permian Basin, where third-quarter crude oil output is expected to hit a record high, with year-on-year growth and efficiency improvements surprising analysts.

The widespread increase in production among the giants has put pressure on oil prices. Weak global crude oil demand has led to a 12% drop in oil prices over the past six months, and if OPEC continues to implement its plan to restore previous production cuts, prices may decline further.

Nick Hummel, an analyst at Edward D. Jones & Co in St. Louis, stated: “Exxon Mobil and Chevron are sticking to their core oil and gas strategies while expanding production in some of the best assets globally. The short-term outlook for oil and gas is weak, especially as OPEC prepares to release more oil into the market.”

Previously, it was reported that OPEC plans to increase oil supply to the market starting in December, restoring the planned supply of 180,000 barrels per day. However, some analysts believe that the increase in U.S. production (currently about 50% higher than Saudi Arabia) may prevent OPEC from increasing output.

Macquarie stated in a report that this oil, along with new supplies from Guyana, Brazil, and other regions, could mean “by 2025, there will be 5 million barrels per day of production capacity that is currently not being produced.” They noted that this is in the context of “relatively weak” demand growth.

The agency expects that unless significant geopolitical events occur, Brent crude oil will fall from the current price of about $73 per barrel to below $70.