US oil rose 14% in a single month, Goldman Sachs: Record demand combined with Saudi production cuts, the oil market has emerged from pessimism.
WTI crude oil has risen by 14% since July, potentially achieving the largest increase since January 2022. Brent crude oil has accumulated a growth of over 12% in July, and Goldman Sachs predicts that it could rise to $86 per barrel by the end of the year.
With the market gradually tightening, oil is expected to have its best month in a year and a half.
WTI crude oil has remained above $80 per barrel after five consecutive weeks of gains, pushing prices to their highest level since April. Since July, it has risen by 14%, potentially marking the largest increase since January 2022, and achieving the best performance in July in nearly twenty years.
Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby recently stated in a report, "Record-high demand and Saudi supply cuts have exacerbated the situation of supply shortage."
Goldman Sachs stated that the market has emerged from pessimism and reiterated its forecast that Brent crude oil prices will rise to $86 per barrel by December of this year.
As of now, Brent crude oil is trading at $84.24 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of over 12% in July.
After a series of increases, U.S. oil has wiped out its year-to-date decline. The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will end its monetary tightening cycle have boosted market sentiment. The heavily anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll report released this week may indicate a healthy outlook for oil demand.
Previously, due to low market sentiment, the two major oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, joined forces several times to support oil prices.
Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russia will cut crude oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August, and Saudi Arabia also announced an extension of its voluntary production cut action until August.
As crude oil prices break through recent highs, speculators have increased their bullish bets on oil, and the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil have reached the highest level in three months.
According to reports, the next OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMCC) meeting will be held on August 4th (some sources say August 3rd), and its statement may once again affect market sentiment.