Cui Dongshu: Strong global trend for new energy passenger vehicles in 2023, with a 60% market share in China from January to June.

According to the Zhongtong Finance APP, on August 5th, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, published an article on his personal WeChat public account stating that the global trend of new energy vehicles in 2023 is relatively stable. From January to June 2023, the sales volume of general new energy vehicles reached 9.54 million units, of which hybrid vehicles accounted for 2.32 million units, or 24%. The trend of global new energy passenger vehicles, excluding conventional hybrids, is even stronger. Due to the impact of a high base and the gradual withdrawal of subsidies in various countries, the trend of global new energy passenger vehicles in 2023 is relatively strong, reaching 6.05 million units from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 45%. In June, it reached 1.28 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43%.

Commercial vehicles account for only 3% of the global new energy vehicle market, with passenger vehicles being the main segment. China's performance in the global new energy passenger vehicle market, accounting for 60% from January to June 2023, is impressive. China's new energy vehicle exports are also strong in 2023, which is a result of the strong industrial chain in China, leading to dual growth in the domestic market and exports.

I. Global Trend of New Energy Vehicles

1. Composition of the Global General New Energy Vehicle Market

In 2012, there were 1.58 million general new energy vehicles worldwide, which only increased to 1.79 million units by 2015, showing slow growth. With the accelerated development of new energy vehicles starting in 2016, the number of general new energy vehicles exceeded 2 million units in 2016, reached 3.17 million units in 2017, surpassed 4 million units in 2018, reached 5.15 million units in 2020, and reached 9.77 million units in 2021. Among them, conventional hybrids reached 3.19 million units. In 2022, the sales volume of general new energy vehicles reached 14.11 million units, of which hybrid vehicles accounted for 3.72 million units, or 26%. From January to June 2023, the sales volume of general new energy vehicles reached 9.54 million units, of which hybrid vehicles accounted for 2.32 million units, or 24%.

2. Structure of Global New Energy Vehicles

From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of hybrids continued to decline and gradually stabilized. The proportion of hybrid passenger vehicles in general new energy vehicles decreased from 93% in 2012 to 79% in 2015, and then decreased by 10 percentage points each year. The market share of hybrids declined by 1 percentage point in 2019, but began to decline rapidly in 2020. By 2022, the share dropped below 26%, and at the beginning of 2023, it rebounded to 27%. 2023 will see a strong sustained trend in pure electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market, while plug-in hybrid vehicles will gradually improve, and hydrogen energy will continue to weaken.

3. Global New Energy Vehicle Market Landscape

From January to June this year, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 5.87 million units, while the sales volume of commercial vehicles reached 170,000 units. The sales volume of electric pickups in the United States during this period was not significant, but it will be a key focus for us in the future.

II. Trends in Global New Energy Passenger Vehicles

1. Performance of Global New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2023

In 2020, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.86 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 41% compared to the same period in 2019.

In 2021, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.34 million units, showing an unexpectedly strong growth of 122%.

In 2022, the global new energy passenger vehicle market showed a strong trend, reaching 10.39 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 64%.

In 2023, the global new energy passenger vehicle market continues to show a strong trend, with sales reaching 6.05 million units from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 45%. In June alone, sales reached 1.28 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 43%. The growth rate is still relatively fast compared to previous years.

2. Market Trends of Global New Energy Passenger Vehicles

In the first half of 2020, the global new energy vehicle market faced pressure from a high base, but starting from July, it entered a low base period, laying the foundation for the continuous growth of the new energy market.

From 2021 to 2022, the market showed an accelerating upward trend, with even stronger growth on a low base. In 2023, the global new energy vehicle market started from a lower base, and by June, it had basically recovered with strong high growth.

The deceleration trend of new energy vehicles in 2023 exceeded expectations. The adjustment of China's new energy policy had a significant impact in January, but it has gradually recovered from February to June. In the previous few years, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles had already surpassed a growth rate of 40%.

3. Market Trends of New Energy Passenger Vehicles in Different Regions of the World According to the data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM): China's passenger car sales in 2021 reached 3.31 million, surpassing Europe's 2.18 million and North America's 700,000, highlighting China's advantage in new energy vehicles.

According to the data from CAAM: China's sales in 2022 reached 6.5 million units, significantly surpassing Europe's 2.48 million and North America's 1.06 million, further demonstrating China's advantage in new energy vehicles.

According to the data from CAAM: China's sales from January to June 2023 reached 3.65 million units, continuing to outperform Europe and North America, highlighting China's advantage in new energy vehicles.

From the regional market trends of new energy vehicles, Europe consistently outperformed China in 2020. The European new energy vehicle market remained stable at a high level in 2021-2022, while China's new energy vehicle market showed strong growth starting from 2021. The U.S. market for new energy vehicles remained relatively sluggish and stable.

China's new energy vehicle sales experienced a significant decline in 2023, while Europe saw policy withdrawal and the U.S. market remained strong. The future of the Chinese market will continue to develop well.

4. Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in Various Countries

The overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles worldwide is showing a rapid upward trend. By the fourth quarter of 2022, it had reached 17%, and from January to June 2023, it reached 14%. Among them, China's penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 27%, Germany reached 19%, Norway reached 71%, the United States only reached 8.6%, and Japan only reached 3%. Therefore, the imbalance in the development of new energy worldwide is extremely evident.

As China continues to strengthen its development of new energy, and the United States increases its encouragement policies for new energy, the global new energy vehicle market enters a new stage of strong development.

III. Characteristics of the Global New Energy Passenger Vehicle Structure

1. Trends in the Global New Energy Passenger Vehicle Market

The European new energy market in 2021 was affected by the pandemic, resulting in weak growth. In 2022, it was still affected by the pandemic, and the European market share decreased significantly compared to 2021. In 2023, the European market share slightly increased. Recent growth in China's new energy passenger vehicles has outpaced the global average growth rate, with China's share of the global new energy passenger vehicle market experiencing a significant reversal in 2020. In 2021, China maintained a strong 52% share for the entire year, which is expected to exceed 60% in 2022. From January to June 2023, China's share of the global market reached 60%.

European countries have experienced significant fluctuations in market share. At the end of 2022, countries like Germany saw a surge in market share, but this quickly declined at the beginning of 2023 due to subsidy withdrawals. Countries like Japan and South Korea, which were less affected by policy changes, saw slower increases in market share. The new energy market in other Asian regions has shown average growth.

2. Product Structure of Global New Energy Passenger Vehicles

In recent years, the proportion of pure electric vehicles has increased, reaching 74% in 2022. The hydrogen energy market has been severely depressed, while the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles has declined. A pattern similar to traditional vehicles in the mid-to-high-end segment has gradually emerged. In 2023, the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to increase significantly to 28%, while pure electric vehicles may temporarily decline.

The global new energy vehicle market is characterized by the growth of SUVs, a decline in sedans, and a weak performance of MPVs. Overall, the high-end segment has shown outstanding performance, putting significant pressure on traditional fuel vehicles.

3. Product Structure of Global New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2023

In 2023, the global new energy vehicle market will be dominated by pure electric vehicles in China. Plug-in hybrids will have a stronger presence in the European market, where the market structure shows a clear balance between pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Non-car-producing countries like Norway have a stronger focus on pure electric vehicles.

In the early stages, China had a strong presence in the A00-level electric vehicle segment, while this year, both China and European countries have a higher proportion of A0-level vehicles. Overall, the mainstream market consists of economy-level electric vehicles (A0+A00), with China's economy-level electric vehicles accounting for 45% of the country's pure electric vehicle market, maintaining its dominant market position. Germany, France, and Italy also have a strong presence in the economy-level electric vehicle segment.

The global market has a higher proportion of B-level electric vehicles, while the proportion of A-level vehicles is relatively low. This is also a characteristic of Tesla's global strategy.