Rare! Apple's "Five Consecutive Declines"! The key will be the iPhone 15, which will be launched on September 22nd.

Revenue "three consecutive declines" have shaken investors' faith in Apple, and the stock price has seen a rare "five consecutive declines". The upcoming iPhone 15, which will be unveiled next month, will be the key to whether Apple can turn the tide.

As of the close of the US stock market on Monday, Apple's stock price has fallen for five consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of nearly 9%. Overnight, Apple fell 1.7%, compared to a 1.2% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Apple was the worst-performing stock in the Dow that day.

This round of decline intensified after Apple's third-quarter earnings report was released. Last Friday, Apple plummeted 4.8%, with a market value falling below $3 trillion, marking the largest single-day decline since September 29 and the first time the stock price has closed below the 50-day moving average since the beginning of the year.

Apple has always been the "king of constant victory" in the US stock market, with an annualized total return rate of 29% over the past decade, far exceeding the S&P 500's 12% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 11%. Why did one earnings report shake the faith?

Although the company's second-quarter earnings per share exceeded expectations, Apple's total revenue declined by 1.4% YoY, marking the first consecutive decline in three quarters since 2016. All hardware product lines except Mac computers declined, with iPad revenue plunging by 20%.

More notably, in the latest fiscal quarter, Apple was the only company among its competitors to experience two consecutive quarters of revenue decline. Moreover, the signals given by Apple during the earnings conference call were far from optimistic. Apple executives expect that assuming the overall economic outlook does not worsen, the company's performance in the third quarter will be similar to that of the second quarter.

In addition, Apple's high valuation has made investors hesitant. Currently, Apple's forward price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months is 28 times, higher than the 23.2 five-year average price-to-earnings ratio and significantly higher than the lowest price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8.

Apple urgently needs a new blockbuster product to prove itself and justify its high valuation, and the upcoming iPhone 15 is highly anticipated.

According to reports, the iPhone 15 will be launched on September 22, and the holiday quarter ending on December 31 will be an important observation period for demand. The sales performance of the iPhone 15 will greatly influence the future trend of Apple's stock price.

For Apple, the good news is that the low base effect of the same period last year due to supply chain disruptions, but the challenge lies in the fluctuation of exchange rates in overseas major markets, which may reduce Apple's overseas revenue.

Earlier this month, Guo Mingchi, known as the "most accurate Apple analyst," predicted that the demand for the iPhone 15 series will be lower than that of this year's iPhone 14 series. He pointed out that although shipments will decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, most of the zero components' shipment plans in the fourth quarter of 2022 have not changed significantly. Unless the demand for the iPhone 15 exceeds market expectations after its release, most suppliers will face growth pressure in the second half of the year due to the iPhone 15's lower demand compared to the iPhone 14.