Overnight Surge of 850 billion! Lilly vs. Novo Nordisk, the Battle of Weight Loss Drugs Begins

The next generation of Medicine King has arrived.

Lilly, Novo Nordisk, these two weight loss drug companies, once again skyrocketed by more than 14% overnight, with a total increase in market value exceeding $120 billion, surpassing ¥8.5 trillion.

The combined market value of the three largest medical companies in A-shares, Mindray + Hengrui + Sinopharm, is still several billion more.

Lilly has also become the world's first pure pharmaceutical company with a market value exceeding $500 billion. Compared to Pfizer, which has taken the spotlight during the COVID-19 period, pharmaceutical investors value the long-term potential and sustainability of a drug more.

And all of this achievement by Lilly and Novo Nordisk is due to the "miracle weight loss drug."

Lilly's Q2 report greatly exceeded expectations, and the weight loss drug Tirzepatide shocked the market with its rapid growth.

Compared to the growth of global pharmaceutical companies, Lilly deserves to be the brightest star this year.

In the Q2 report released last night, Lilly's dual-target (GLP-1R/GIPR) weight loss drug Tirzepatide shocked the market with its rapid growth, becoming the fastest-growing drug in history.

Tirzepatide sold a total of $1.55 billion in the first half of the year, and sales in the second quarter alone reached $980 million, a quarterly growth of 72%. Lilly even further raised its annual sales forecast for Tirzepatide to $4 billion.

The growth rate of Tirzepatide can only be described as "terrifying."

In the five quarters since its approval, sales volume has almost doubled every quarter, and this was achieved only under the indication of diabetes. It is worth noting that Semaglutide, known as the "miracle weight loss drug," only sold $150 million in its fifth quarter on the market.

This terrifying growth process certainly involves many off-label (off-indication) weight loss patients purchasing the drug, after all, the attraction of more than 20% weight loss is too great for those who pursue beauty. However, from a commercial perspective, it has not yet launched a promotional campaign for weight loss, and the potential demand explosion may exceed expectations for a long time.

In the FDA's updated drug shortage list on August 2nd, intermittent shortages of various specifications of Tirzepatide were reported, and the reason was increased demand.Unlimited Demand, for a very long time in the future, the only constraint on the sales of Terlipressin is production capacity.

Jianzhi Research mentioned in the article "FDA Warning: Severe Shortage of Weight Loss Miracle Drug | Jianzhi Research" that the shortage of Semaglutide in the United States has caused a chain reaction, even affecting the previous generation of outdated product Liraglutide. Now, the shortage of Terlipressin has plunged the entire market into a state of insufficient production capacity.

The reality of weight loss patients and diabetes patients competing for medication will continue.

Eli Lilly also mentioned in the performance meeting that in order to ensure the use of the previous generation of Dulaglutide (a GLP-1 drug similar to Semaglutide) for the treatment of diabetic patients, they have suspended issuing new prescriptions for Dulaglutide to new diabetic patients. This is also to avoid the situation where existing Semaglutide patients, due to the shortage of medication, are forced to switch from once-a-week Semaglutide to once-a-day Liraglutide.

However, the shortage of Terlipressin may ease in the fourth quarter. Because Terlipressin is produced by a synthetic method, it is relatively easier to expand production compared to Semaglutide.

Eli Lilly has invested billions of dollars in the new diabetes production bases in North Carolina and Indiana.

Chief Financial Officer Anat Ashkenazi) stated that once the North Carolina base goes online at the end of this year, the production capacity of Terlipressin and Dulaglutide will double compared to last year.

But can doubling the production capacity meet market demand? Looking at Novo Nordisk's experience of consistently underestimating market demand, Eli Lilly may also repeat the same mistakes.

Novo Nordisk releases data on reducing cardiovascular risk, potential Semaglutide patients increase significantly

Novo Nordisk seems to have deliberately chosen the same day to announce the blockbuster news about Semaglutide.

The results of the Phase 3 clinical trial for the third major indication of Semaglutide were announced: a 20% reduction in cardiovascular disease risk!

This once again drove the market crazy, further expanding the imagination of the future market space for GLP-1 drugs, with the stock price soaring by 17% and the market value surpassing 400 billion US dollars.

In the SELECT cardiovascular outcomes trial, Novo Nordisk recruited 17,604 adults aged 45 or older, overweight or obese, with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but no history of diabetes. After 5 years, they finally concluded that the risk was reduced by 20% compared to the placebo.

This is undoubtedly a large-scale clinical trial, conducted in more than 800 locations across 41 countries worldwide, which is believed to have set records in terms of cost and time.

Although numerous studies have previously shown the correlation between obesity and various cardiovascular diseases, semaglutide is the first drug clinically proven to reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases as a weight-loss medication.

This result has raised high hopes for Novo Nordisk and has also been reflected in the market's excitement.

It is worth noting that the impact of these clinical results goes beyond expanding the scope of drug applications. More importantly, it may affect the reimbursement scope of US health insurance, which has a far-reaching impact on Novo Nordisk's revenue.

According to a new survey by KFF, approximately 45% of surveyed US adults expressed interest in taking "safe and effective weight-loss drugs". However, only 16% of adults remain interested in taking weight-loss drugs without insurance coverage.

Jianzhi Research mentioned in the article "FDA Warning: Severe Shortage of Weight-Loss Miracle Drug" that Wegovy, the weight-loss version of semaglutide, is a completely self-funded product in the US market. Without insurance, the annual cost of using Wegovy could exceed $16,000.

This means that the question of whether health insurance covers these expenses limits 29% of potential weight-loss consumers in the United States.

However, the United States is already discussing the inclusion of weight-loss products in health insurance coverage.

Recently, more than 10 members of Congress have proposed the "Treatment and Reduction of Obesity Act", which aims to strengthen government support in combating the obesity epidemic and include obesity in health insurance coverage. Manufacturers such as Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Boehringer Ingelheim have all expressed strong support for the passage of this bill.

Now that semaglutide from Novo Nordisk has produced clinical results that are beneficial in reducing cardiovascular risks, it will further accelerate the process of including weight-loss indications in the US health insurance coverage. The sales ceiling for semaglutide will be raised once again.

The success of Simi in weight loss and reducing cardiovascular diseases has led the market to extrapolate linearly. On the one hand, other products like Elpopeptide are also expected to succeed in this indication. On the other hand, what is more worth noting is that the probability of Simi Glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1) succeeding in other indications caused by obesity has greatly increased.

In addition to diabetes, weight loss, and cardiovascular diseases, Simi Glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1) is also being developed clinically in the fields of NASH, chronic kidney disease, and Alzheimer's disease.

Jianzhi Research once introduced in the article "The Next Billion-dollar Market for Weight Loss Drug GLP-1 - NASH" that Simi Glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1) is the most likely GLP-1 drug to be approved for NASH.

For example, Merck's dual-target drug has already conducted head-to-head clinical trials with Simi Glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1), which means that Merck also believes that Simi will be the first to be approved.

Because once Simi is approved first, the medication guidelines for NASH indications will change. If other companies in research still use placebos as the clinical control group, they will face the risk of not being able to market their products.

The market has given the most optimistic expectations to the weight loss drug. From the perspective of products, whether it is Simi Glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1) or Elpopeptide, they have just begun their glorious growth path. However, whether the capital market is too optimistic about the two companies is something that investors need to consider at present.