Evercore: The "Golden Age" of investment is over, and the future path to making money is through stocks.
The "golden age" of widespread decline in interest rates over the past 40 years has come to an end, and the way to make money in the coming decades will be through investing in stocks.
According to Dolphin Research, Ralph Schlosstein, the honorary chairman of Evercore ISI, stated that the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening policy launched last year marked the end of the "golden age of investment," forcing Wall Street traders to reconsider how to allocate their portfolios.
"The past 40 years can be considered the golden age of investment. I don't think we will see such a thing in the next 10 or 20 years," Schlosstein said on Wednesday. "If you take a step back, we have experienced 40 years of generally declining and very low interest rates. I think that period is over."
Since the global financial crisis, investors have enjoyed extremely low interest rates for over a decade following significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, this era of cheap funding came to an end in March 2022 when the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle. In order to curb inflation, the central bank raised the federal funds rate by 525 basis points.
"Generating returns will become more challenging," added Schlosstein. "The way to make money in the coming decades will be through stock investments," he said. "But personally, I attach great importance to private equity because I believe that private equity owners are more proactive in addressing corporate strategy or human resource deficiencies than public companies."
Schlosstein stated that due to the nature of his wife's role as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom, he cannot hold individual stocks, so he has invested most of his assets in index funds. He said that if it weren't for these assets, he would invest in cash.
Investors will closely watch Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank for clues about the policy outlook. Federal Reserve officials raised borrowing costs to the highest level in 22 years last month. While this speech may not be as dramatic as recent keynote speeches, Powell's remarks come at a time when policymakers are entering what he calls the most challenging phase of combating inflation - assessing how much tightening is needed and the uncertain impact on the economy.
Schlosstein said that Powell will neither be a hawk nor a dove, but will maintain a "middle ground." "What sets him apart is that he doesn't say much," he said. "If there were fairways in Jackson Hole, he would be there."
Schlosstein added that he believes the Federal Reserve will not cut rates before the first half of next year, and the U.S. economy will maintain higher rates for a longer period of time, which the market has not yet fully digested. "The economy still has considerable strength," he said. "Because they used the word 'transitory,' they dug themselves into a hole. I think they will be very cautious about declaring 'mission accomplished' too quickly. I think they are prepared to take the risk of a mild recession."