In the midst of bullish sentiment, Guo Mingji from Tianfeng International poured cold water on NVIDIA, while Wooden Sister also sold at high prices.

Nvidia's explosive earnings report has led many analysts to enthusiastically affirm the validity of artificial intelligence, boosting their confidence and even prompting some analysts to set a target price of $1100. However, amidst the excitement, renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities poured cold water on the situation.

Kuo believes that Nvidia's projected Q3 revenue of $16.5-17.5 billion falls short of the expectations of the investors he has spoken to. Additionally, the slowdown in AI chip shipments and the significant decline in ChatGPT traffic are also unfavorable for Nvidia's stock price, at least in the short term.

Kuo's specific points are as follows:

• Based on the assumptions of CoWoS shipments and payment conditions for Nvidia, the investors I have spoken to were expecting Nvidia to project Q3 revenue of $16.5-17.5 billion. Therefore, when the media reported that Nvidia's earnings forecast exceeded market consensus, it was actually below the expectations of these investors.
• From a fundamental perspective, the QoQ growth rate of Nvidia's CoWoS shipments in Q4 is expected to significantly slow down to approximately flat. I believe that this is not a positive signal, especially for some short-term traders, considering that the stock price has already risen significantly.
• Another short-term factor affecting AI stock prices is the lack of evidence for a sustainable and profitable AI service model when ChatGPT traffic is significantly declining. In addition to Nvidia's AI chip shipments, this issue will gradually increase its impact on AI stocks in the foreseeable future.
• It is expected that more investors may take profits from AI supply chain stocks that have already risen significantly in the short term. However, as the positive trend of AI continues, investors may not have many other better options for industry investments, so they are still actively seeking beneficiaries whose stock prices have not yet reflected the positive trend of AI.

The earnings report released this week shows that Nvidia's Q2 revenue was $13.507 billion, a YoY increase of 101%, ending the trend of three consecutive quarters of decline. This far exceeded Nvidia's previous guidance range of $10.78-11.22 billion, which was already higher than market expectations. Analysts expected a YoY increase of about 65% to $11.04 billion. Nvidia also forecasts that its Q3 revenue for the fiscal year 2024 will be $16 billion, with a fluctuation range of 2%, equivalent to a guidance range of $15.68-16.32 billion.

With Nvidia's earnings report exceeding expectations, Morningstar, the last major financial research institution to give Nvidia a "sell" rating, has also "surrendered." Morningstar has abandoned its "sell" rating on Nvidia, upgraded it to "hold," and raised its target price from $300 to $480 per share.

Prominent investor "Miss Wood" was not impressed by Nvidia's impressive earnings report. She sold millions of dollars worth of Nvidia stocks within three days, stating that the valuation has already been reflected and she insists on selling on rallies. Miss Wood said:

I believe that Nvidia, which can provide the basic tools needed for AI in the next five years, will be in a very favorable position. However, everyone knows this, and Nvidia's value has already been evaluated accordingly. Based on Nvidia's revenue this year, its price-to-sales ratio is approximately between 25 and 27 times, depending on individual estimates. From the performance of NVIDIA's stock price after the release of its earnings report, it seems that the truth is once again in the hands of a few, at least in the short term. NVIDIA surged more than 10% after hours on Wednesday, breaking through $510, and had a 7% increase at the opening on Thursday, but almost closed lower. The downward trend continued on Friday, with a drop of about 4.4% at one point, reaching around $450, faring much worse than the overall U.S. stock market that day.