金十数据 11 月 14 日讯，10 月以来多家村镇银行发布公告，调整定存挂牌利率，其中，中长期存款利率下跌幅度较大。不过，值得注意的是，尽管村镇银行存款利率有所下降，但相比其他类型银行，其存款利率仍然相对较高。从我国银行存款利率整体来看，中信证券明明团队表示，截至 9 月，1 年期存款平均利率为 1.988%，已经跌破 2% 的整数关口。但是面对当前较为复杂的经营环境，银行后续仍有动力推动存款利率下行。东吴证券固收李勇团队认为，当前存款利率整体呈现出下调频率变高、期限越长下调幅度越大的特点。基于这一特征和当前的宏观环境，存款利率有再次下调的空间。（每经）

分析师称存款利率仍有下调空间

恒指高开 0.4%，报 17495.10 点；恒生科技指数涨 0.59%。理想汽车涨 4.1%，小鹏汽车、携程集团、快手等涨逾 1%。

利润率的连续季度改善！高盛表示，美国企业的利润率改善将支撑本财报季表现强于预期，即使营收超出预期的比率低于历史长期平均水平。

美股本次财报季，最大的亮点是什么？

UBS believes that the US economy will enter a recession in the second quarter of next year. "By March, the Federal Reserve will be concerned about very high real interest rates."

The boldest investment bank! UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will "cut interest rates by 275 basis points" next year, four times the market consensus.

招联首席研究员董希淼表示，中国货币政策工具箱中的工具仍然较多，货币政策进一步调整的可能性和必要性均存在。四季度或继续加大政策实施力度，继续推动政策利率下行、降准、适度降低存款利率，压降银行资金成本。

性能飙升 90%，Llama 2 推理速度翻倍，大批超算中心来袭！大科技公司们又要开始囤货了。

老黄深夜炸场，世界最强 AI 芯片 H200 震撼发布！

The market is digesting Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating outlook to negative, waiting for the October CPI and PPI inflation data and the funding decision on whether the US government will shut down on Saturday. The S&P Nasdaq Composite Index failed to maintain its intraday gains, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the second consecutive day to its highest level in nearly eight weeks. Nvidia matched its longest winning streak since 2016, while Tesla rose more than 4% to achieve its largest increase since the beginning of the month. Eli Lilly approached its all-time high. The China concept index rose 1.8% and closed up 0.8%, with Baidu and Bilibili both rising more than 1%, and Tencent and Xiaopeng Motors both rising more than 2%. After Moody's downgrade of the outlook, US long-term bond yields performed relatively strongly, reflecting a "duration premium". The US dollar initially rose above 106 and then fell, while the Japanese yen initially fell to a one-year low of 152 and then rebounded, and the offshore renminbi rose above 7.29 yuan. Spot gold rose and approached $1950, while London copper rose 1.6% and moved away from its two-week low. OPEC is optimistic about demand in the next two years, and oil prices rose more than 1% to a one-week high.

S&P and Nasdaq turned down, while Nvidia continued to rise for the ninth day in a row. Chinese concept stocks performed strongly, leading the way. The increase in US bond yields was erased during the trading session.

In the UK, the average discount for electric cars in October was 11% lower than the suggested retail price. In Germany, where car manufacturers rarely offered discounts last year, some companies are now offering up to 20% off for their best-selling models. In the United States, the sales of discounted electric cars have doubled in the past 12 months.

"The market is no longer booming!" The global electric vehicle industry has entered a "winter mode", with discounted sales to increase sales volume.

NVIDIA has made a major upgrade to its popular H100 GPU to solidify its market-leading position. The company has launched the new H200 GPU, which has the ability to use HBM3e high-bandwidth memory and integrates 141GB of memory. The inference speed on Llama 2 is twice as fast as the H100. Major computer manufacturers and cloud service providers are expected to start using it in the second quarter of next year.

NVIDIA launches new AI chip H200, performance soars, stock price expected to rise for the ninth consecutive time.

TSMC's revenue in October saw its first year-on-year growth since February this year. With the continuous surge in demand for AI chips, the current market has a strong demand for TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging, indicating a turning point in the chip market.

TSMC sees a long-awaited surge! Is the semiconductor industry on the verge of a new dawn?

After Moody's downgraded the US rating last week, US stock futures fell; European stocks were boosted by healthcare stocks and rose across the board, with Novo Nordisk hitting a one-month high; OPEC slightly raised global demand, and oil prices rose slightly.

US stock futures are down, while European stocks are generally up. Novo Nordisk rose 3% at one point, reaching a one-month high, and oil prices have seen a slight increase.

小鹏汽车：收购滴滴智能汽车开发业务资产的首次交割已于 2023 年 11 月 13 日发生，首次交割后，标的集团各成员公司均已成为本公司的全资附属公司，而标的集团的财务业绩将被并入本集团的合并财务报表中。

中国 10 月社会融资规模增量 18500 亿人民币，预期 19500 亿人民币，前值 41200 亿人民币。

中国 10 月 M2 货币供应同比 10.3%，预期 10.3%，前值 10.3%。

中国 10 月新增人民币贷款 7384 亿人民币，预期 6550 亿人民币，前值 23100 亿人民币。

Morgan Stanley believes that the smartphone industry will recover from 2024 onwards by incorporating edge artificial intelligence. In 2025, a new product cycle will begin, and at that time, Apple will emerge as the biggest winner.

Morgan Stanley: AI Ignites a "New Product Cycle" for Smartphones

高盛发表研究报告指，“双 11” 期间包裹数量增长 23% 至 24%，预期中国互联网行业的总体 GMV 将达到中高个位数增长。该行指，由于双十一横跨的日数愈来愈长，令 GMV 的高峰更加平坦，与整个季度相比，双十一的增长趋势更加温和。该行提到，直播仍然是快速增长的管道，但料将处于更严格的监管环境。价格竞争力仍然是焦点所在。该行认为，多元化的营销管道及淘宝、天猫和微信之间加强合作，预算将更倾向于具有交易能力的平台。另外，各个公司在电子商务中正采用生成式人工智能。双十一期间，该行预期阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多的 GMV 增长分别为 1%、3%、20%，又认为阿里巴巴和京东与产业之间的增长差距持续基本保持不变，显示今年第四季的增长势头与最近几个季度相似。高盛指，仍然最看好电子商务这个子行业，包括阿里巴巴、拼多多及快手。

高盛：预计阿里、京东及拼多多 “双 11” GMV 分别同比增长 1%、3% 及 20%

JD-SWR, Tencent, and Alibaba, three major technology stocks, will release their quarterly earnings on Wednesday (15th) and Thursday (16th).

Fubon Wealth's Xu Qimin: Bullish on mobile gaming stocks in the short term, optimistic about A-share market in the medium and long term.

Economists predict that restrictive monetary policies will continue to exert pressure on the global economy next year, with a few countries possibly experiencing mild recession. There are opportunities in fixed income assets, and the overall strategy remains defensive.

Morgan Stanley's Global Market Outlook for 2024: Economic slowdown, monetary easing, and multiple challenges for the market.

摩根士丹利策略师在给客户的报告中称，预计美国的股票和债券明年将跑赢新兴市场。我们预计美国盈利增速将在 2024 年初触底然后反弹，美国相对于其他地区的经济增长可能会保持强劲，而新兴市场的增长可能会令人失望。摩根士丹利预计标普 500 指数到明年年底将达到 4,500 点。

摩根士丹利看好美国资产 2024 年的表现

港股医药外包股午后调整，方达控股跌超 3%，泰格医药跌超 2%，药明康德、药明生物、金斯瑞生物科技均跌近 1.5%。

According to market sources, due to a lack of buyers, Goldman Sachs has lowered the asking price for a Hong Kong office building it owns by at least one-third, or approximately HKD 900 million.

Goldman Sachs significantly lowers the asking price for its holdings of Hong Kong office buildings.

小摩认为，很多股票的估值已接近历史最低点；收入预期调整仍将是最重要的股价驱动因素。而阿里、腾讯目前股价未反映的因素包括：1）淘宝越来越受消费者和商家青睐。2）腾讯小游戏平台在中国网络游戏市场的使用时长和收入份额正在上升。

阿里、腾讯们财报前！市场反映了什么？未反映什么？

“对 AGI 何时到来做一个对数正态分布的预测，其中 2028 年是均值，2025 年是众数，但前提是不发生核战这类疯狂的事件。

2028 年人类将迎来 AGI：DeepMind 联合创始人长文预测未来 AI 发展

日本媒体当地时间 11 月 12 日援引一项最新调查报道，大阪府摄津市部分居民血液中有机氟化合物含量偏高，健康受到威胁。调查人员分析，这可能与当地河流和地下水中全氟和多氟烷基物质含量超标有关。近期，日本关西地区多座城市的河流和地下水检测出全氟和多氟烷基物质超标，大阪府摄津市是其中之一。今年 9 月以来，当地一个由医生和研究人员组成的市民团体组织居民参加血液检测，结果显示，87 名受检居民中，31 人血液中含有高浓度的全氟和多氟烷基物质。

日本大阪府部分居民血检异常 疑与水体受污染有关

If Hong Kong seizes this opportunity, I believe that the innovative pharmaceutical sector in the Hong Kong stock market will have even greater appeal to investors, especially in terms of liquidity. There is no need to worry.

Home by the river: Hang Seng Index is waiting for the US stock market to provide guidance in the short term.

华尔街见闻从供应链独家获得的权威市调机构统计数据显示，小米 14 系列，自 10 月 31 日首销至 11 月 10 日，全渠道总销量高达 144.74 万台，创下小米高端旗舰销量纪录。小米 14 系列助推小米于 W44（10.30-11.5）在中国智能手机市场销量市占率环比升幅第一，提升高达 8.9 个百分点，同时也拿下安卓销量份额第一。

小米 14 系列上市销售 10 天全渠道销量高达 144.74 万台

According to an internal media report citing information from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the CSRC has requested Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited to supplement its overseas issuance and listing filing materials. Sources say that this is a routine procedure during the IPO application process for companies. Cainiao submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) on September 26th.

"New Stock News" According to reports, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has requested Cainiao to supplement the materials for overseas issuance and listing filing.

恒生科技指数盘初快速拉升，一度涨逾 1.9%。

恒指高开 0.35%，恒生科技指数涨 0.6%。小米涨 2.4%，B 站、商汤、联想、快手等涨逾 1%。

美股市场数据反映反弹动力强劲，基金经理预计美股将继续上涨：““我们将寻找增持股票的机会。”

美股正在观望：年底行情会有吗？

Over the weekend, reelshort, a short drama platform under Chinese online media company Zhongwen Online, has once again gained tremendous popularity. It has reached the second place on the overall download chart in the United States and the first place on the entertainment chart. At the same time, it has also entered the top ten in 40 countries. The concept of short dramas is worth paying attention to.

Zhitong Decision Reference | Hang Seng Index continues to decline, bearish momentum weakening

据悉印度考虑降低电动汽车关税以吸引特斯拉投资。

印度考虑降低电动汽车关税以吸引特斯拉投资

2024 could be the "catalyst year" for edge artificial intelligence.

AI is set to become a revenue-generating tool, and Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Apple.

摩根士丹利经济学家预测，随着通胀降温，美联储将在未来两年大幅降息；高盛分析师预计降息幅度较小，且会较晚才会开始。以美国首席经济学家 Ellen Zentner 为首的摩根士丹利研究人员周日在他们的 2024 年展望中表示，美联储将于 2024 年 6 月开始降息，然后在 9 月以及第四季之后的每次会议上降息，每次降息 25 个基点。他们表示，到 2025 年底，政策利率将降至 2.375%。同时，高盛预计，美联储将在 2024 年第四季首次降息 25 个基点，到 2026 年中期每季降息一次，总共降息 175 个基点，利率最终会落在 3.5%-3.75% 范围。这是根据经济学家 David Mericle 对 2024 年的展望得出，该展望也是在周日发表。高盛的预测更接近美联储的预测。根据政策制定者的预估中值，美联储 9 月的预测显示，明年将降息两次，各下调 0.25 个百分点，到 2025 年年底，政策利率将在 3.9%。

高盛和摩根士丹利对美联储降息的预测有分歧 相差 125 个基点

Goldman Sachs pointed out that global hedge funds increased their bearish positions on financial stocks to the highest level in nearly five years last week, but did not mention the underlying reasons.

Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds' bearish positions on US financial stocks increased to a five-year high last week.

12 晚在社交网络上流传一张聊天截图，图片头像为 “马化腾”，称 “用阿里云不如用腾讯云啊朋友们”。腾讯云方面表示，该截图是假的。12 日下午，阿里云多个相关服务均出现了问题，包括天猫精灵、阿里云服务器产品控制台、淘宝消息系统、饿了么、夸克等。

“马化腾” 称用阿里云不如用腾讯云？ 腾讯云回应：假的

光大证券认为央行或在年底之前择机降准。本阶段降准有助于降低金融机构的资金成本，缓解其净息差的压力，增强金融支持实体经济的可持续性。而且，降准的政策红利经银行体系传导至借款人后，还具有促进融资成本下降的作用。

降准的概率明显上升

美股三大股指期货周一小幅低开，其中标普 500 指数期货数跌 0.17%。

The target of delivering 20 million vehicles in 2023 may be difficult to achieve, and there are potential risks in non-automotive businesses. Tesla is both an asset and a risk.

First coverage, first bearish view! HSBC's heavyweight research report on Tesla

The Silent Majority: Without these 10 large-cap stocks, the US stock market's performance this year would be "zero growth".

Small businesses are still very sensitive to changes in the credit cycle.

The end of the interest rate hike cycle, investors are starting to bet on large-cap technology stocks.

Morgan Stanley believes that the US stock market still lacks technical and fundamental support, and last week's surge was mainly influenced by the decline in bond yields. The current market situation appears to be more like a bear market rebound rather than the beginning of a sustained rebound, especially in the face of weaker profit expectations and macroeconomic data.

Is this overseas "stock and bond rally" too strong and too fast? Without fundamental and technical support?

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently announced the sale of $140 million worth of the bank's own stocks, which has attracted attention. In fact, Dimon is not the only top executive on Wall Street who is selling their own bank stocks, as there are many other executives from the six major banks who are doing the same.

Selling their own bank stocks, not only JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon among Wall Street executives

The two major stock indices in the Tokyo stock market had mixed performances on November 10th. Blue-chip stocks such as SoftBank, Renesas, Nissan, Honda Motor, and Sony experienced significant declines, dragging down the overall market. Although the Japanese stock market has seen significant gains this year, there are concerns that it is now facing more and more unfavorable factors, including a lack of support from company performance and the peak of US bond yields. The upward trend is at risk of reversing, leading some investors to turn to the A-share market for bargain hunting.

Blue-chip stocks plummet, is the rally in the Japanese stock market coming to an end?

Amazon's "secret weapon" is likely to make its debut in December, replacing OpenAI. The moment is coming?

Amazon's new large-scale model, Olympus, is revealed! With 20 trillion parameters, it surpasses GPT-4 in an instant.

应美国总统拜登邀请，国家主席习近平将于 11 月 14 日至 17 日赴美国旧金山举行中美元首会晤，同时应邀出席亚太经合组织第三十次领导人非正式会议。

中芯国际联席 CEO 赵海军表示，公司正在拓展汽车（电子）领域高压、大功率等领域，未来计划在成熟节点上深耕细作，把每个产品跟客户一起做到第一梯队的水平，而且是多样化。

中芯国际业绩说明会：中国有大量本土产能需求，特殊工艺收入占 60%

Ideal has completely transcended the circle of new forces.

加密货币贷款机构 Celsius Network 的重组计划获得了美国破产法院的批准，该计划将把加密货币返还给客户，并成立一家由 Celsius 债权人所有的新公司。美国纽约一家破产法院在当地时间 11 月 9 日公布的一份命令中签署了重组计划。重组后的公司将由包括对冲基金 Arrington Capital 在内的财团 Fahrenheit 管理。