金十数据 11 月 20 日讯，据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 12 月维持利率在 5.25%-5.50% 区间不变的概率为 100%。到明年 2 月维持利率不变的概率为 100%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 30%，维持利率不变的概率为 70%。

美联储 12 月维持利率不变的概率为 100%

The narrative of a soft landing dominates the US stock market, speculative trading is prevalent, and small-cap stocks have surged 5% in a week. Junk bonds have seen the largest inflow of funds in three months. However, several institutions believe that the market's assessment of the US economy may be overly optimistic.

Small-cap stocks and junk bonds are soaring, is the market "all in" on a soft landing in the United States?

有代表喜笑颜开地说 “进去了就还可以”，当然也有 “考前” 信心满满，出场后却遗憾表示 “差一块钱”

国谈 DAY2：AZ、齐鲁 20 分钟谈完，华领、拜耳 “鏖战” 2 小时，华东的 GLP-1 谈成了吗？肿瘤药明天将开启大战

OpenAI 前总裁、核心 AI 科学家 Greg Brockman 在社交平台上梳理了与 OpenAI 前 CEO Sam Altman 被董事会罢免的细节。他表示，他对董事会的决定感到震惊和悲伤。经过 Ilya 的通知，Sam 被解雇，并且 Greg 也被从董事会中除名。

Altman 被罢免原因来了？OpenAI 内乱解读

After this sale, GEELY AUTO will still hold 78.7% of Volvo's shares. According to reports, the sale price of GEELY AUTO's shares is approximately SEK 37 per share, with a total sale amount of approximately USD 350 million. Volvo's financial report released last month showed that the company's adjusted operating profit in the third quarter was SEK 19.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%, far exceeding expectations.

Volvo's European stocks plummeted by 11%, hitting a historic low, after previously experiencing a discounted sale of shares by Geely Auto.

Qube Company has stated that it does not hold £670 million in short positions on HSBC HOLDINGS. The disclosed short position in the public register of the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK was due to an error in submission. Stuart Brown, the Chief Operating Officer of the company, stated in an email announcement that the company does not have a net short position on HSBC.

Hedge fund Qube's massive short position on HSBC? Company responds: Reporting error, no net short position on HSBC!

US e-commerce giant Amazon is reportedly laying off hundreds of employees in its smart voice assistant Alexa division, and has announced plans to invest more resources in developing generative AI capabilities. This move highlights the pressure the company is facing in the face of competition from generative AI technologies such as ChatGPT.

Priority AI Battle! Amazon Alexa Department Shrinks, Hundreds of Layoffs Expected

Founder Securities pointed out that TSV is the core process in the HBM industry chain, and there will also be an increase in demand for plating, testing, and bonding. The growth in AI computing power demand has opened up the market space for HBM, and it is expected that the market size will reach 12.74 billion US dollars by 2026, with a CAGR of 37%.

Understanding the HBM Industry Chain in One Article

Alibaba's Variation

金十数据 11 月 17 日讯，从接近特斯拉的业内人士处获悉，在接连三次涨价后，特斯拉将于下周再次上调中国市场售价。（蓝鲸财经）

特斯拉下周将继续上调中国市场售价

已经有不止一位网友发现，自己的 ChatGPT 已经在悄悄测试该功能。

ChatGPT 被曝测试新功能：学习所有历史聊天，还能重置记忆、“阅后即焚”

Microsoft is undoubtedly one of the best companies in the world, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should buy its stock.

Microsoft: How to balance between competitive advantage and valuation?

Buffett may be considering Japanese banks, insurance companies, and automakers as his next investment targets.

Should we continue to buy Japanese stocks? Berkshire Hathaway has issued yen bonds for the second time this year, with a total value of 122 billion yen.

港股收盘，恒指收跌 2.12%，科指收跌 1.62%；国美零售涨超 80%，新股药明合联涨超 35%，阿里巴巴跌近 10%，哔哩哔哩跌近 7%。

沃尔沃汽车欧股股价下跌 12.6%。此前，吉利计划出售约 3.88 亿美元的沃尔沃汽车股份。

* 大摩削阿里目标价至 110 美元 剔出首选股

* 大摩削阿里目标价至 110 美元  剔出首选股

短剧赛道仍在早期阶段，收入贡献和增长空间还需验证。

短剧出海，原来欧美也愿意为 “土味” 买单？

HONG KONG, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Hong Kong-listed shares of China’s Alibaba Groupplunged 10% on Friday, wiping about $20 billion off its market value, after the company scrapped plans to spin off its cloud business.

QUOTES-Reaction to Alibaba's scrapping of cloud unit spin-off

金十数据 11 月 17 日讯，美银证券调低阿里巴巴港股目标价 17%，由 133 港元降至 110 港元，主要因为调低 2024-2026 年 3 月底止年度盈利预测 5-7%，但重申评级为买入，基于现市价约为 2024 年经调整预测市盈率 8 倍及 2025 财年市盈率 7 倍，同时认为阿里将受惠内地经济可能已触底，美银指，截至 2023 年 9 月底止第二财季季绩，基本符合市场及该行业绩，但公司暂停分拆，及马云家族可能出售约 1000 万股美国 ADR 持股，令市场大感意外，因此将令投资者关注公司未来增长策略，虽然公司指暂不分拆受美国限制晶片出口影响，美银认为显示阿里在云业务发展面临挑战及不明朗。另外，考虑到双 11 表现及公司未来策略重点，因此调低盈测，最新估计 2024 财年经调整盈利为 1222 亿元人民币。

美银证券削阿里巴巴港股目标价 17% 至 110 港元 重申买入

金十数据 11 月 17 日讯，商务部部长王文涛与美国商务部长雷蒙多举行会谈。双方同意，两国商务部将于明年一季度举行商贸工作组对话首次会议；支持在两国开展的省州经贸合作和贸易投资促进活动；共同推动中美企业合作对接项目取得实效，并增设项目办公室；共同推动建立中美政府间标准和合格评定对话机制。双方讨论并同意两国专家于 2024 年 1 月就强化行政许可过程中的商业秘密和保密商务信息保护问题进行技术讨论。

中美双方同意，两国商务部将于明年一季度举行商贸工作组对话首次会议

金十数据 11 月 17 日讯，野村发报告指，下调腾讯目标价 6%，从 472 港元至 445 港元，评级买入。野村指，腾讯的视频账户（VA）广告很可能是未来收入的驱动力。腾讯第三季度营收同比增 10%，盈利稳健增长 39%。VA 是一大亮点，广告收入环比显著增长，符合预期，主要由于用户花费的时间增加，尽管广告量保持不变。预计 VA 广告可能占第三季腾讯广告收入的 13%，到 2025 财年可能达到 30% 左右。野村认为市场对腾讯小游戏业务的关注是错误的，因为尽管运营了几年，但该业务始终只占其收入的一小部分。腾讯开发小游戏的想法是丰富微信生态的内容库，同时能够通过第三方小游戏运营商获得的收入分得一些利益，从而产生一些现金流。

野村下调腾讯目标价 6% 认为 VA 可能是未来收入驱动力

Modern has become the first car manufacturer to allow consumers to buy cars on e-commerce platforms. This plan will be implemented next year.

Breaking the traditional distribution model! Hyundai Motor wants to "sell cars online" on Amazon.

特斯拉投资者、格伯川崎财富投资管理公司 CEO 罗斯·格伯周四表示，马斯克已不配担任特斯拉公司的 CEO，并将这一指责与马斯克最近在 X 上的一条所谓的 “反犹” 言论联系起来。格伯在一次采访中表示：“他现在的所作所为不像特斯拉的 CEO。他的行为和他对品牌造成的损害绝对是不可容忍的。” 格伯此前在 X 上发帖称，由于马斯克的言论，他计划换掉他的 Model Y，用一辆 Rivian 来取代。他持有特斯拉约 42 万股股票。

特斯拉投资者痛批马斯克：他已不配当 CEO

金十数据 11 月 17 日讯，杰富瑞发表报告指，阿里巴巴截至 9 月底止季度收入按年增长 9%，至 2,248 亿元人民币，符合市场预期、较该行预期高出 2%，因应美国出口管制，不再推进云智能分拆工作。公司提出 AI 支援的三年计划，长远计划完整，维持买入评级，目标价由 181 港元下调至 140 港元，以反映控股折让估值转变。该行指，阿里有多重增长推动力，核心平台业务属强劲现金牛，在内地消费升级下，保持增长趋势，亦受惠稳定的执行能力及科技优势。各生态平台高度协同，有助加快在低端城市拓展，提供本地服务。云业务亦具有清晰的市场领导地位。

杰富瑞下调阿里目标价至 140 港元 因美出口管制放弃分拆云智能

OpenAI 创始人，被称为 “ChatGPT 之父” 的山姆·奥特曼在接受记者采访时表示，自己很高兴看到政府间在 AI 领域的合作，相信这种合作一定会取得成果。

OpenAI 创始人奥特曼：对 AI 领域的政府间合作很有信心

一个搞电商一个搞内容，一个主打实惠，一个瞄准中产 Z 世代，但创始人都曾受段永平指点的网易和拼多多，似乎拿到了同一本 “武林秘籍”——在性价比、细分类目突围、技术布局产业未来的打法上不谋而合。

网易、拼多多为什么能成为今年涨最多的中概股？

金十数据 11 月 17 日讯，杰富瑞发布研究报告称，维持京东集团买入评级，策略调整为京东打下坚实的基础，预计明年将实现高质量增长，目标价 312 港元。集团第三季收入符合预期，同比增 1.7% 至 2477 亿人民币，非通用会计准则纯利胜于预期，达 106 亿人民币。用户频繁和订单数量均持续增长。报告指出，“天天低价” 对于京东而言是正确的方向，其生态系统透过将商家分类为 1P 及 3P，为使用者提供最佳的体验。而生态系统的长远成功，有赖于 3P 商家及 3P 订单快速增长等指标。电子及家电类今年第三季及首 9 个月的增长高于行业水平，因其有强大的市场占有率及供应链能力。

杰富瑞：维持京东集团买入评级 目标价 312 港元

* 瑞银下调阿里目标价至 120 美元 评级「买入」

* 瑞银下调阿里目标价至 120 美元  评级「买入」

恒生科技指数跌超 2%，恒生指数跌 1.7%，科网股股跌幅居前，阿里巴巴跌超 8%，百度跌超 4%，美团跌近 3%，腾讯控股、京东均跌近 1.5%。

阿里巴巴跌近 8%，此前公布财报；京东健康跌 3.5%。

恒指低开 1.39%，恒生科技指数跌 1.63%

Google's large-scale model Gemini has been delayed until the first quarter of next year, and the development difficulty may be greater than expected.

Surpassing GPT-4 is difficult? Google's "most powerful model" release postponed to the first quarter of next year.

中信证券认为，未来 12~18 个月，美股科技板块有望处于相对确定的业绩上行周期，生成式 AI 亦有望逐步带来业绩增量贡献，这将是该行适当容忍短期市场波动、持续看好美股科技板块中期表现的最核心支撑！

美股科技股，明年继续涨？

Blue Pool Capital, a family wealth fund co-founded by Jack Ma and Joseph Tsai, has participated in a $200 million Series D funding round for Tabby, a Middle Eastern shopping and online consumer credit platform. This investment values Tabby at $1.5 billion, and the company is also planning to go public on the Saudi Stock Exchange. Tabby was established in Dubai in 2019 and provides a service similar to mainland China's "Huabei," allowing consumers to receive goods before making payments. As of March last year, Tabby had over 1 million active users and served more than 3,000 brands.

Jack Ma's family wealth fund invests in Tabby, an online consumer credit platform in the Middle East.

通用汽车旗下自动驾驶公司 Cruise 当地时间 11 月 16 日暂停了一项允许员工将公司股票套现的内部计划，理由是在一起行人事故导致公司上个月叫停自动驾驶业务后，该公司需要重估该业务价值。Cruise 首席执行官 Kyle Vogt 表示，公司将重新评估员工股权计划，业务暂停推后了公司的商业化和创收时间表。

通用汽车旗下 Cruise 取消员工持股套现计划

ChargePoint announced that its third-quarter revenue will be lower than expected due to pressure in its core markets in North America and Europe. The company reported preliminary revenue for the third quarter of $108 million to $113 million, compared to the previous expectation of $150 million to $165 million.

ChargePoint 盘后跌超 30%! Q3 初步营收不及预期

ChargePoint 的股价在盘后交易中下跌超过 30%！第三季度初步营收未达预期。

The S&P 500 index is approaching a key technical level, but the rebound is sluggish.

Bouncing with unsteady steps! US stocks hit a key resistance level, making it difficult to continue the upward trend?

11 月 16 日晚，阿里巴巴发布截至 9 月 30 日的 2024 财年二季报。在分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴董事会主席蔡崇信、CEO 吴泳铭重新 “点将”，明确了阿里全新战略的优先级。其中包括：暂缓盒马鲜生 IPO，不再推进云智能集团的完全分拆。与此同时，阿里第一批战略级创新业务——1688、闲鱼、钉钉、夸克四大板块浮出水面。据吴泳铭透露，上述战略级创新业务将以独立子公司的方式运营，打破以往在集团内的定位限制，用更独立的策略去面对最广阔的市场，集团将以 3 至 5 年为周期进行持续投入。

阿里巴巴排兵布阵 “新战略大图”

Meta 推出了两项基于人工智能的视频编辑新功能，可用于在 Instagram 或 Facebook 上发布视频。第一个功能名为 “Emu Video”，可以根据纯文本、纯图像或组合的文本和图像输入来生成视频。另一款名为 “Emu Edit”，用户可以通过文本指令进行自由形式的编辑。

Meta 推出基于人工智能的视频编辑工具

According to the media, Apple's previous target time for launching its self-developed baseband chip has been postponed to next year, and later extended to spring 2025. Now it seems that this goal may not be achievable, and it may take at least until the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. Currently, Apple's baseband chip is still in the early stages of development, and researchers believe that the initial version may lag behind competitors by several years.

Apple's "Chip Swap" plan for 2025 may fall short as the company has invested billions of dollars but still lags far behind its competitors.

Alibaba's management team announced during the second quarter earnings conference call that Alibaba Cloud will no longer pursue a complete spin-off, and the listing of Hema will be temporarily suspended. At the same time, Alibaba will implement an AI-driven strategy prioritizing public cloud, increase investment in AI-related hardware and software, especially in the Taobao and Tmall businesses. In the future, Alibaba will leverage the Choice business to drive platform growth and has announced the first batch of strategic innovative businesses.

Alibaba conference call: Strategic considerations do not involve the separation of Alibaba Cloud. Instead, an AI-driven approach and a priority strategy for public cloud will be adopted. The first batch of strategic innovative businesses has been announced.

Alibaba's spin-off listing faces obstacles.

Alibaba has disclosed on the official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a notice of proposed securities sale, document number 144, which shows that JC Properties Limited and JSP Investment Limited, companies under the Ma Yun family trust, plan to convert their respective holdings of 5 million Alibaba ADS into freely tradable shares and plan to sell them next Tuesday (the 21st), involving a market value of approximately 8 million dollars.

Ma Yun's family trust holding company announces plans to reduce its stake in Alibaba by 10 million ADS shares.

阿里巴巴：董事会批准 2023 年年度现金股息每 ADS 1 美元。

36 氪获悉，11 月 16 日，阿里巴巴集团财报披露，鉴于多方面不确定性因素，不再推进云智能集团的完全分拆。同时，阿里巴巴将坚决加大对阿里云的持续战略投入，确保阿里云专注于 “AI+ 云计算” 发展战略，打造 AI 时代技术领先的云计算服务。

阿里巴巴：坚决加大对阿里云战略投入，不再推进完全分拆

Nov 16 (Reuters) - China’s Alibaba Group Holdingreported second-quarter revenue on Thursday that was in line with analysts’ estimates as the country’s retail sector recovers from the effects of pandemic-fueled lockdowns.
The Chinese e-commerce giant posted revenue of 224.79 billion yuan ($31.01 billion) in the quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 224.32 billion yuan, according to LSEG data.
($1 = 7.2481 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Alibaba quarterly revenue in line with expectations

阿里巴巴美股盘前跌超 5%，公司第二季度营收 2,247.9 亿元。

阿里巴巴：盒马鲜生的首次公开募股计划已暂停，我们正在评估市场情况。

国泰君安表示，造车初期流量 + 生态 + 渠道协同是小米汽车的优势所在，作为具备强大流量群体的消费电子龙头，小米客户基础叠加智能生态和渠道优势令小米汽车表现值得期待。

小米造车版图有多大？多家公司回应合作关系，券商看好车机生态协同

In the third quarter, net revenue from gaming and related value-added services reached RMB 21.8 billion, representing a YoY growth of 16.5%.

CLOUD MUSIC's Q3 revenue growth of 11.6% met expectations, with a steady performance in the gaming business. Although CLOUD MUSIC's revenue declined, gross profit improved. | Earnings Report