Looking ahead to 2024, Bank of America believes that the market still faces nine major downside risks, including the resurgence of inflation, overly optimistic expectations for the economy, the lagging impact of high interest rates, a wave of junk bond maturities, a US economic recession, the bursting of the technology stock bubble, geopolitical crises, sovereign debt risks, and zero-day option expiration.

Bank of America: The Nine "Black Swans" of 2024

Micron Tech's stock performance has been significantly better than the S&P 500 index, rising nearly 77% in the past year. The company's management has demonstrated progress in increasing production and acknowledges past overspending issues. Micron Tech is still in the early stages of the artificial intelligence hype cycle and hopes to gain market share in the HBM memory market. However, the rise of Samsung Electronics may have an impact on the industry landscape. Supply chain insiders suggest that Samsung Electronics may encounter difficulties with advanced packaging in HBM, while Micron Tech's partnership with TSMC may give it an early advantage. Analysts predict that Samsung Electronics will surpass SK Hynix in the second half of 2024. Therefore, competition in the HBM market is expected to intensify.

Afraid to get on board? Micron Tech's upward trend may have another round

Morgan Stanley's senior portfolio manager, Andrew Slimmon, believes that as investor sentiment reverses and strategies shift, the US stock market is expected to continue its upward breakthrough. The stock market rally is expanding, with the S&P 500 index approaching historical highs. Investor optimism has reached its highest level in two and a half years, while pessimism stands at 20.9%. Wall Street analysts are also optimistic about the stock market and the economy, predicting the arrival of another "roaring twenties". However, Morgan Stanley strategists have warned that despite the consensus shifting towards a soft landing, the US economy may still unexpectedly fall into recession in 2024.

Morgan Stanley: Investor sentiment has reversed, and US stocks are expected to continue to break through.

小米集团港股转跌，此前一度涨超 2%。

On December 28th, the Hang Seng Index Company blog stated that due to the inflow of funds in November and the expected positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in mid-December, the total assets under management (AUM) of exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking the Hang Seng TECH Index increased by 18.7% MoM, reaching a new high of USD 15.8 billion. The Hang Seng Index Company mentioned that the market expects a possible interest rate cut in the United States next year, resulting in a flow of funds into the assets under management of the Hang Seng TECH Index. In theory, during a period of deceleration or policy shift in the US interest rate hike, the technology sector in the stock asset category may experience a larger rebound, as the stocks in this sector are mainly growth stocks and are more sensitive to interest rates under unchanged conditions. Therefore, risk-seeking investors may take the lead in making investment allocations ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Hang Seng Index Company: The scale of tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index ETP reached a new high of USD 15.8 billion at the end of November.

小米集团港股涨幅收窄至 0.5%，此前一度涨超 2%。

比特币回落至 43000 美元/枚下方，日内跌 0.88%。

港股若能喺今明兩日扭轉過去四個月跌勢，重返萬七大關，2024 年開局好大機會可以展開一個較為似樣啲嘅反彈，不過暫時 50 日線及 100 日線阻力仍大，過去多個月都係反彈至呢啲水平回頭，除非有更多利好政策及有新資金流入，否則反彈至 100 日線，未能進一步向上突破 18000 水平，港股仍難走出上落市偏弱格局。

港股結算重上萬七關 一月開局可再彈

英伟达股价年内飙升超过 200%，但它还远不是最牛美股！截至 12 月 26 日市值 10 亿美元以上的公司中，涨幅冠军是一家生物技术公司—— Soleno Therapeutics。

美股今年表现最好的股票上涨了 1900%！

The Supreme People's Procuratorate has issued the "Opinions on Fully Exerting the Function of Prosecution to Serve and Guarantee the High-Quality Development of the Financial Sector in Accordance with the Law". It emphasizes the need to strengthen the crackdown on financial crimes in high-risk areas, highlight the fight against various forms of illegal financial activities, and continue to increase efforts to prosecute money laundering and related crimes.

China's assets surge! Supreme People's Procuratorate and Social Security Fund make a significant statement.

小米集团董事长雷军：在未来 15-20 年内，我们希望成为全球五大汽车制造商之一。

Next year's economy and policies will focus on the issue of inflation. China's style of re-inflation mainly relies on supply and demand, real estate, and exports. However, due to employment pressure and uncertainty, the activation of demand is crucial. In addition to the expansion of fiscal and monetary aggregates, it is also important to create new demand, such as new infrastructure projects. Taking history as a guide, loose monetary policy, active fiscal policy, and supply-side policies are equally important. Currently, the performance of inflation is similar to that of 1998, with the high-tech sector leading the way and the consumer sector relatively lagging behind. More incremental policies need to be introduced next year.

Chinese-style "reinflation": How? What's the strategy?

市场传出，台积电 2 纳米先进制程研发顺利，有望推进 2025 年量产目标，台积电研发组织 12 月加发特别贡献奖金，慰劳研发人员。外界解读，主要反映研发部门协助台积电 3 纳米顺利放量，以及 2 纳米开发有显著进展与贡献。据传，此次加发特别贡献奖金 6000 元至 5 万、10 万元新台币不等，非人人有奖。对此，台积电昨日未正面回复相关消息，仅表示，公司一直以来秉持员工是公司最重要资产的理念，致力给予员工高于同业平均水准的薪酬与福利。

消息称台积电 2 纳米制程研发顺利，为研发人员加发至多 10 万元新台币奖金

港股中国中免盘中涨超 10%，A 股中国中免现涨 9.4%。

恒生科技指数涨超 4%，恒生指数涨 2.5%。

12 月 13 日，美联储召开会议，宣布保持利率稳定，但预计明年开始降息约 75 个基点。美联储对美国经济的评估已经转变，认为宽松政策有必要。如果经济增长率上升，宽松力度不及预期，有利于股票而不利于债券；如果通胀率上升，则对两者都不利。当前市场预期大幅宽松，但美联储的宽松力度不太可能超过预期。鲍威尔主席表示，重回 2% 的通胀目标还需要时间，但宽松政策不会对反通胀趋势产生负面影响。

美联储转变态度及其影响

今日，前海开源战略顾问王宏远再次喊话港股、A 股已见底。他表示，从历史上看，香港股市多次在牛市末期比 A 股率先见顶，在熊市末期比 A 股率先见底。香港股市见底已经 12 个交易日了，A 股市场见底已经 6 个交易日了。本轮香港股市见底的 2023 年 12 月 11 日，A 股市场见底的 2023 年 12 月 21 日。就在不久前的 12 月 22 日，他曾经有过类似发声。

前海开源王宏远喊话：A 股港股均已见底

MicroStrategy, a Bitcoin company, has purchased $620 million worth of Bitcoin to enhance its stock appeal and as a long-term investment. This move has attracted the attention of investors, as more and more people are optimistic that the U.S.'s top market regulatory agency will soon approve the trading of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As a result, MicroStrategy's stock price has surged by 8%. They have stated that Bitcoin will ultimately become an excellent store of value and plan to continue purchasing this digital asset.

Bitcoin's fire reignites! MicroStrategy splurges $620 million to snap up goods

Tesla's global deliveries in 2023 are expected to reach 1.82 million vehicles, a 37% increase, but may face greater challenges. Tesla plans to stimulate sales by lowering prices to cope with the slowdown in electric vehicle sales and achieve an average annual growth rate of 50% in the coming years. However, Tesla will face challenges in 2024 due to the loss of tax credits and the decline in profit margins caused by price reductions. In addition, while Tesla is undisputedly the leader in the electric vehicle market in the United States, it faces fierce competition from local companies in the Chinese market.

Tesla is expected to achieve record-high deliveries in 2023, but may face even greater challenges next year.

恒生科技指数涨超 2%，科网股多数走高，万国数据涨超 5%，哔哩哔哩、美团涨超 4%。

小米汽车官方微博在发布会前夕向中国新能源汽车先行者致敬，并得到蔚来、小鹏、理想等多个新能源品牌的回应。雷军在微博中表示对比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏、理想、华为等先行者的佩服和敬意。相关消息备受关注，小米发布会备受期待。

重磅汽车发布会前夕，雷军向汽车先行者们致敬

The unit price of NVIDIA's B100 board is about 10% higher than that of H100. Wistron is its largest supplier, accounting for 85% of the supply. Microsoft plans to purchase a large number of NVIDIA's cutting-edge B100 GPUs in 2024, instead of the previously purchased H100. According to the report, the computational power of B100 is estimated to be at least twice that of H100. It is expected that the demand for B100 will increase significantly, leading to an increase in the demand for advanced packaging technology such as CoWoS. NVIDIA's next-generation B100 architecture may adopt TSMC's 4nm process. Foxconn plans to become the second supplier of B100 boards. Currently, Wistron supplies 100% of NVIDIA's B100 boards.

Guo Mingchi: The unit price of NVIDIA's PCB is about 10% higher than that of H100, and Wistron's supply accounts for as much as 85%.

Wharton School of Business finance professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the US stock market is expected to rise by 15% next year, and believes that the risk of an economic recession is less than 50%. He expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates five to six times next year, bringing rates below 4%. Siegel stated that the current price-to-earnings ratio is about 20 times, but if technology stocks are excluded, the ratio would be close to 15 times, providing an opportunity for value stocks to outperform growth stocks by 2024. In addition, he pointed out that the US economic environment is favorable and there are no signs of an economic collapse. Overall, Siegel holds an optimistic view of the stock market next year.

"The Wharton Magician" Optimistic Forecast: Recession Concerns Eased, US Stocks Expected to Rise 15% Next Year

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

马斯克：社交媒体平台 X 正在研发游戏主机上的流媒体服务。

高盛通过对比标普 500 指数和除美股以外的全球股票指数发现，在过去 48 年中，美股有 27 年跑赢全球股指。 尤其以 97 年互联网科技泡沫前，和 08 年次贷危机后持续时间较久。当前从估值来看，美股已处于历史估值区间顶部，且上涨主要由几家大公司推动。而从每股收益来看，欧洲年化每股收益增长已明显优于美国。但美国在经济增长、劳动生产率的提升等方面仍表现不俗。尤其是 AI 投资热潮方兴未艾，将带来更多投资领域的发展，成为支持美股继续跑赢全球股市的动能。

高盛：美股何时开始跑赢全球股市的？

极氪近日发布品牌首款纯电轿车极氪 007，售价 20.99 万元起。预售至今，累计订单达 51569 单。该车搭载高压系统和智能驾驶系统，续航里程最高达 870km。极氪 007 还配备了 ZEEKR 007 OS 6.0 智能座舱系统，提供了多种智能驾驶功能。该车将于 2024 年 1 月 1 日开始交付，高速 NZP 功能已上线，城市 NZP 也将于 2024 年 6 月开启公测。

极氪 007 上市：搭载 800V 高压系统，首发浩瀚智能驾驶，售价 20.99 万元起

With the wave of the artificial intelligence boom in 2023, the semiconductor industry will finally welcome a new champion after 30 years, and NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in the field of artificial intelligence chips, will take the throne.

Breaking the 30-year pattern! NVIDIA's revenue this year may surpass Intel and Samsung Electronics, taking the top spot in the industry.

超 1222 亿港元！港股回购额创历史新高，历次回购潮后港股怎么走？

年终盘点 | 腾讯再成港股回购王！

央视网文章称，地方禁放烟花爆竹，无非是出于环保压力和安全隐患，但我国在环保方面已取得显著成效，而划定可燃放的时段和区域、做好安全措施，也已是各地的成熟经验。中国人辛劳了一年，应该享受过年的喜悦，应该有仰望绚烂烟花的权利。如今，在 2024 年春节来临前，各地应以全国人大法工委的声音为契机。全面禁放烟花爆竹，是时候终结了。

央视网：全面禁放烟花爆竹，是时候终结了

BATELAB, the first listing of its kind, announced that the company issued approximately 15 million shares at a price of HKD 27.47 per share, with a net proceeds of approximately HKD 351 million. As of the time of writing, the stock has dropped by 8.81% to HKD 25.05, with a trading volume of HKD 4.7357 million. It is reported that BATELAB is one of the leading providers of simulation IC pattern wafers in China. The company's deliverable products are simulation IC pattern wafers that come with complete circuits, and downstream customers can choose to package and test them through standard processes or use the packaging and testing solutions provided by the company to produce individual IC chips. According to Frost & Sullivan data based on 2022 revenue, BATELAB is the largest provider of simulation IC pattern wafers in China, with a market share of 1.7% of the total market size in China (RMB 21.3 billion). BATELAB's products have been applied in various fields such as automotive electronics, medical, industrial automation, industrial IoT, industrial lighting, instrumentation, communication, power, energy storage, and consumer electronics. The company has provided services to well-known brand manufacturers and industry-leading chip design companies, among many other downstream customers.

On the first day of trading, BATELAB made its debut on the stock market with an opening price that was 8.81% lower in the morning session.

恒指开盘涨 0.32%，恒生科技指数涨 0.2%。阿里健康、哔哩哔哩、理想汽车涨超 1%。

The price of Ethereum experienced a surge before the expected catalyst for an upward trend in January, prompting investors to buy this cryptocurrency. Data shows that Ether has recently risen by 6% and has increased by 95% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, Solana's SOL token has seen an increase of 82%. Two key events in January have caught the attention of investors: the "Dencun" upgrade of Ethereum and the progress of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) potentially approving a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Investors are optimistic that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could have a positive impact on an Ethereum spot ETF.

Many positive factors in January drove the price of Ethereum to soar, driven by buying pressure.

Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot Platforms have outperformed Bitcoin, with gains of over 800% and 400% respectively. Meanwhile, Coinbase and MicroStrategy have also seen gains of over 350% in their stock prices. Bitcoin mining companies are expanding their operations to increase production, and it is expected that if the approval for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is obtained, the demand for Bitcoin will significantly increase. Riot Platforms has announced the purchase of a large number of mining machines, while Marathon is acquiring new equipment to improve mining efficiency. Marathon's stock price has been rising for 11 consecutive trading days.

With an increase of 800%! Riding on the wave of Bitcoin's skyrocketing, shares of cryptocurrency miners like Marathon soar

The champion of the 2023 US stock market's growth is not Nvidia or Tesla. The stocks with the highest growth this year are Soleno Therapeutics and Carvana. Soleno Therapeutics has surged by over 1900% due to the company's announcement of a blockbuster product for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome. Carvana has seen a growth of 1030% as the company has made efforts to reduce its debt burden. Other notable performers include Affirm Holdings. Biotechnology, biopharmaceutical, and cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown outstanding performance this year. Analysts warn that the market momentum may change rapidly.

The champion of the 2023 US stock market's growth is announced, and it's neither NVIDIA nor Tesla.

A federal appeals court in Washington has temporarily halted the US International Trade Commission's (ITC) import ban on certain Apple smartwatches. Meanwhile, Apple is appealing the ITC's ban and requesting an extension of the suspension period during the appeal.

Apple's unexpected major victory! The US Court of Appeals temporarily suspends the ban on Apple Watch.

The New York Times accuses Microsoft and OpenAI of illegally copying and using millions of their articles to train large language models. They believe that their AI models have harmed the protection and monetization of news media content, posing a threat to high-quality news reporting.

Claiming billions of dollars! The New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement

在 12 月 27 日举行的中国电动汽车百人会论坛媒体沟通会上，中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长张永伟表示，我国新能源汽车市场仍会保持高速增长态势，预计 2023 年中国新能源汽车销量 900 万辆，2024 年有望达到 1300 万辆，渗透率将超过 40%。同时，新能源汽车行业会加速洗牌。张永伟表示，新能源汽车产业将愈发 “内卷”，新车型迭代周期将缩短。汽车产品生命周期缩短，同时汽车与 ICT 产业融合速度将进一步加快。对于车企而言，2024 年将是大浪淘沙的关键时期，行业洗牌会加速，有的企业获得成长机会，有的企业日子会更加难过。

中国新能源汽车渗透率 2024 年将超过 40%，行业洗牌有望加速

加密货币对冲基金 Alt Tab Capital 的联合创始人兼首席运营官 Greg Moritz 预计，加密货币市场将受到宏观和行业层面因素的共同提振，包括通胀企稳，美联储不再加息，以及比特币 “减半” 事件，这会减少供应。“总体而言，我们觉得今年是复苏年，” Moritz 表示，“明年真的是大放异彩，值得庆祝的一年。”

对冲基金：加密货币市场将受到宏观和行业层面因素的共同提振

MicroStrategy 本月通过增持，将比特币的总持有规模增加到 80 多亿美元。根据周三提交给美国证交会的文件，在 11 月 30 日至 12 月 26 日期间，该公司创始人 Michael Saylor 以 6.16 亿美元的现金购买了 14620 枚比特币，使其持有的比特币总数达到 189,150 枚，占 1958 万枚流通比特币的近 1%。

MicroStrategy 购买超 1.4 万枚比特币，持有量逼近流通比特币总数的 1%

美股主要股指盘初小幅上涨，道指和标普继续逼近历史高位。部分中概股回落，网易和蔚来等公司股价下跌。微软股价开盘跌超 0.2%，英伟达和特斯拉股价有所上涨。京东股价开盘下跌。

美股盘初小幅上涨，标普道指继续逼近历史高位，网易蔚来回落

On Wednesday, Bitcoin-related stocks rose. As of the time of writing, Bit Digital and Canaan surged more than 13%, Coinbase rose more than 4.7%, Marathon Digital rose more than 8%, and Riot Platforms rose more than 5%.

US Stock Market News | Bitcoin-related stocks rise, Coinbase up over 4.7%

Microsoft, Alphabet-C, and Amazon made a series of significant investments in the generative AI field last year, totaling approximately $27 billion, accounting for two-thirds of the total financing amount for emerging AI companies.

More VC than VC, this wave of AI startups has driven Silicon Valley giants crazy with investments.

余承东带领华为汽车军团推出了旗舰车型问界 M9，该车拥有多项黑科技和豪华配置，售价较高，但预订单和锁单量均突破万台。M9 有望在豪华细分市场引起巨大变革，挑战蔚来、理想等传统豪车品牌。此次发布的 M9 是华为汽车 BU 压箱底的集大成者，具备全屋智能和超大空间等特点，具备爆红潜质。这也是余承东继 M7 之后的又一次成功，证明了华为汽车在市场竞争中的实力。

余承东又赢了一次

Bitcoin rebounded, indicating that the U.S. securities regulatory agency may approve the ETF for direct investment in Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin rose by 2.1%, trading at around $43,000, and other cryptocurrencies also saw some gains. Bitcoin Cash rose by 14%. The founder and CEO of Grayscale Investments resigned as chairman, which may drive institutional demand for the Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust. The Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust surged by 18% on Tuesday. The market's interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments is still unclear. The U.S. SEC may approve spot Bitcoin ETFs before January 10th.

Expectations for spot ETF approval heat up, Bitcoin resumes its upward trend

JPMorgan Chase's profits in the first three quarters of this year exceeded the combined profits of Bank of America and Citigroup, firmly securing its position as the "king of Wall Street".

JPMorgan Chase single-handedly wins big, taking away 20% of the profits from the US banking industry

通威股份和大全能源两家硅料龙头企业在一个月内宣布投资 430 亿扩产。这一举动引起了市场的争议。有人认为这将进一步加剧光伏行业的过剩问题，但也有人认为通威和大全选择在目前低谷期扩产是明智的战略决策。通过逆势扩产，他们提高了自己在市场中的份额，加速了落后产能的淘汰，进一步加强了市场主导地位。通威股份宣布的 280 亿扩产项目对未来两年的供给影响不大。

通威大全再砸 430 亿，豪赌硅料 | 见智研究

国内消费品品牌集体出海，包括喜茶、蜜雪冰城、瑞幸在内的茶饮赛道品牌加大了海外市场的拓展力度。蜜雪冰城已在东南亚、越南、印尼等地开设近 4000 家门店。消费市场复苏偏弱，电商和茶饮赛道面临激烈竞争和价格战。相较于制造业出海，消费品出海阻力较小。在高端消费放缓的情况下，更具性价比的商品和服务消费仍有空间。

消费的第二增长曲线：出海

比特币突破 43000 美元/枚，日内涨 1.63%。