The Year 2023: The Prototype of "The Big Short" - Sounding the Alarm for Economic Recession and Betting on a Decline in the S&P 500. Renowned hedge fund manager Michael Burry predicts a gloomy outlook for the stock market and the economy, stating that the United States will fall into a recession. He buys semiconductor stocks and takes advantage of the regional banking crisis to buy at low prices. Burry's predictions become reality as the inflation rate drops below 4%, but the economic recession has not yet occurred. He releases a series of concerning charts, warning investors. Burry has consistently reminded investors to be cautious of market bubbles and predicts the arrival of the "mother of all crashes" in 2021. He also warns shareholders of 3B Home Furnishings, which eventually files for bankruptcy. Burry's bet on the decline of the S&P 500 index proves successful, showcasing his economic insight.

The Prototype of "The Big Short" in 2023: Sound the alarm for an economic recession and bet on the decline of the S&P 500.

韦德布什证券公司的知名科技分析师预计，2024 年美国科技股将上涨 25%，纳指有望冲上 2 万点。分析师认为，云计算和人工智能技术的创新支出将推动科技股迎来新一轮牛市。预计苹果、微软和 Alphabet 等领先的科技公司将在 2024 年加速发展。纳斯达克 100 指数在 2023 年一路上涨，若艾夫斯的预测准确，该指数将再上涨 33% 以达到 2 万点。

韦德布什预计美国科技股今年上涨 25%，纳指冲上 2 万点

路透新加坡 1 月 2 日 - 全球最大的加密货币比特币周二上涨 3%，自 2022 年 4 月以来首次突破 45,000 美元，在 2024 年伊始便强势上扬。比特币 (BTC=BTSP) 当日早些时候一度触及 21 个月高点 45,386 美元，最新上涨 2%，报 44,980 美元。以太币 (ETH=BTSP) 上涨 1%，报 2,376 美元。(完)(编审 汪红英)

比特币 2024 年伊始大涨，自 2022 年 4 月以来首次突破 45,000 美元

Deputy Director of the Central Finance and Economic Affairs Office of China, Han Wenxiu, wrote that it is necessary to implement policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, promoting growth, and ensuring employment. It is important to cautiously introduce contractionary and restrictive measures and create favorable conditions for progress. Existing systems, mechanisms, and policy measures that do not meet the requirements of the new era should be promptly abolished.

Han Wenxiu discusses "seeking progress while maintaining stability": Caution in implementing contractionary and restrictive measures.

据调查的分析师们预测，特斯拉在 2023 年第四季度可能成功交付了近 48.32 万辆汽车。这意味着，特斯拉去年很可能已经突破了 180 万辆汽车的交付大关，这已是公司的历史新高。

分析师：特斯拉 2023 年汽车交付量将突破 180 万

港股汽车股走低，理想汽车跌 5%，蔚来汽车跌 4.7%，华晨中国跌超 2%，比亚迪股份跌近 2%，小鹏汽车涨幅收窄至 2.47%。

中国 12 月财新制造业 PMI 50.8，预期 50.3，前值 50.7。

截至发稿，网易-S 涨 6.12%、心动公司涨 4.12%、腾讯控股涨 2.04 %、哔哩哔哩-SW 涨 1.50%。消息方面，目前国产游戏已成为全球各大游戏排行榜单上的常客，日前 Sensor Tower 公布了手游出海榜单，有 37 家中国游戏厂商入围 11 月全球手游发行商收入榜 TOP100，合计吸金 18.7 亿美元。

港股游戏股延续近日涨势 网易涨超 6%

腾讯控股涨超 2%，股价一度重回 300 港元上方。

NTES-S opened more than 4% higher, with a gain of 4.2%, at HKD 146.5, with a turnover of HKD 50.62 million. There is news that NTES-S may collaborate again with game developer Activision Blizzard, which is positive for NTES-S. It is estimated that the collaboration will enhance NTES-S's profitability. Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on NTES-S's performance, believing that its current valuation is attractive and investors can take advantage of the low price to accumulate.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | NTES-S opens more than 4% higher, institutions believe that the potential re-collaboration with game developer Activision Blizzard is a positive development.

XPENG opened more than 4% higher and, as of the time of writing, rose 4.14% to HKD 59.05, with a turnover of HKD 21.2462 million. In terms of news, after surpassing 20,000 deliveries in October 2023, XPENG's delivery volume has continued to grow for three consecutive months, reaching 20,115 vehicles in December. After a brief downturn in the first half of the year, XPENG delivered a total of 141,601 new vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17%. In addition, on January 1st, XPENG's new flagship model, the XPENG X9, was officially launched, with a total of four configuration models available, priced between CNY 359,800 and CNY 419,800. On December 31st, XPENG's official WeChat account announced that pre-orders for the XPENG X9 had exceeded 30,000 units.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | XPENG opens more than 4% higher, annual sales exceed 140,000 units, and the XPENG X9 is officially launched.

港股恒指高开涨 0.51％，国企指数涨 0.64％，科指开涨 1.04%。科网股走强。

2023 年股市势头强劲，标准普尔 500 指数仅第四季就上涨了 11%。这可能会转化为新的一年的力量。“势头会带来动力，” 分析师表示。 “我还相信，能够推动市场上涨 (至少) 20% 的主题通常是超过一年的持久趋势。”

理解市场 | 美股 2023 年的强劲表现，可能推动 2024 年的涨势！

The price prediction range for Bitcoin in 2024 varies from $60,000 to $500,000, and analysts and traders are optimistic about the trend of Bitcoin. In 2023, the price of Bitcoin rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of about 152%. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced difficulties, with many cryptocurrency projects collapsing and exchanges filing for bankruptcy. In 2023, FTX exchange collapsed, its founder was accused of crimes, and the founder of Binance was accused, pleaded guilty, and resigned. A new round of Bitcoin bull market has begun, mainly based on the events of Bitcoin "halving" and the possible approval of Bitcoin ETF.

The "2024 Bitcoin Radical Predictions List" is out! Bulls roar that $500,000 is not a dream.

比特币现货日内涨幅一度扩大至 6%，现报 45380 美元/枚。

亚洲股市在今年首个交易日交投清淡，澳大利亚股市小幅走高，日本市场休市。美元基本持平，标普 500 指数期货基本持平，纳斯达克 100 指数期货几无变动。货币方面，美元兑欧元基本持平，兑日元下跌。比特币上涨至 44,482.12 美元，以太币上涨至 2,354.22 美元。大宗商品方面，WTI 原油期货涨至每桶 72.02 美元，现货黄金基本持平。以上为亚洲股市和货币市场的相关信息。

亚市早盘：亚洲股市交投清淡 澳大利亚股市小幅走高日本市场休市

Can the US stock market replicate the bull market of the past decade in the future? It's difficult, but there is a chance! Over the past ten years, the US stock market has performed strongly, delivering substantial returns to long-term holders. However, to replicate the glory of the past decade, there needs to be a miraculous growth in both earnings and valuations. Analysts point out that valuations tend to be high after a period of strong long-term performance, resulting in weaker expected returns in the future. Currently, stock prices are already at a high starting point, making it quite challenging to generate average returns. Although there is a possibility of stocks continuing to rise, mathematical calculations reveal the challenges within the current valuation range.

Can the US stock market replicate the bull market of the past decade in the future? It's difficult, but there is a chance!

目前看来，该改的已改、该罚的已罚，非银行支付机构的生存环境也有所改善，2024 年对蚂蚁而言格外友好，暂缓的上市进程或有望重新走上轨道。未来，蚂蚁将金融与非金融业务拆开上市，可能性甚高。

当蚂蚁不再姓 “马”

King of Glory esports events achieve a balance between profit and loss. The goal is to challenge 800,000 annual sales and 100,000 monthly sales by 2024. Tesla is expected to deliver or exceed 1.8 million vehicles by 2023. BIDU-SW announces the termination of the acquisition of YY Huanju. OpenAI's annual revenue exceeds $1.6 billion. A US judge once again prohibits Binance's former CEO Zhao Changpeng from leaving the country.

Breakfast | iPhone 16 approaches 7 inches for the first time, ANT GROUP changes to no actual controller.

蚂蚁集团完成解除马云控制权程序，人行批准支付宝变更为无实际控制人。这是一则企业重大事件，标志着创办人马云放弃集团控制权的相关程序已完成。蚂蚁集团发言人表示，该调整不会影响业务日常运作。该变动源于蚂蚁集团进行的投票权结构调整，旨在改变股东对蚂蚁集团的控制情况。

蚂蚁集团完成解除马云控制权程序 人行批准支付宝变更为无实际控制人

比特币突破 43000 美元/枚，日内涨 1.40%。

2024 年底，中国汽车市场迎来了一轮价格战，多家车企纷纷推出优惠政策以冲击销量。豪华品牌、合资品牌、自主品牌都参与其中，甚至有些豪华品牌的优惠幅度高达 20 万元以上。与以往不同的是，随着新能源时代的到来，自主品牌开始占据主导地位，汽车市场的降价策略也逐渐改变。这次降价潮是为了实现年度销量目标，尤其是对于未完成销量任务的车企来说，优惠幅度更大。比亚迪等车企正在通过优惠政策来冲刺年度销量目标。这次降价潮将给消费者带来更多购车机会。

2024，汽车价格战还得接着打

央行同意支付宝 (中国) 变更为无实际控制人。这次调整源于蚂蚁集团今年年初的投票权结构调整，不再存在单一或共同控制蚂蚁集团的情形。除了支付宝，恒生电子和国泰产险也因蚂蚁集团的变更而成为无实际控制人。调整后的股东权益结构更加稳健，有利于公司长期发展。

央行同意支付宝 (中国) 变更为无实际控制人 多家公司同步调整

消息人士表示，美国 SEC 可能会在下周二或下周三通知现货比特币 ETF 发行人，他们已获准推出现货比特币 ETF。

美国 SEC 可能于下周批准发行比特币现货 ETF

Goldman Sachs believes that if consumer goods profit margins return to normal and core services inflation no longer accelerates, the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE inflation in May next year will decrease to 2.0%, and in December it will decrease to 1.9%.

US inflation falls below 2%? Goldman Sachs: Yes, in 2024

中国保时捷市场交付量下滑 12%，仅为全球交付总量的 25%。保时捷的主要客户群体中国 “白富美” 们正在逐渐冷落该品牌，导致保时捷陷入内忧外患的困境。保时捷在中国市场失宠的原因是其没有及时应变于中国汽车市场的变化，尤其是对新能源汽车和智能化的需求。此外，保时捷缺乏量产纯电车型，而其目前推出的 Taycan 也面临销量下滑的问题。保时捷需要在中国市场加大创新和适应性，以重新吸引中国消费者的关注。

中国 “白富美” 不买保时捷了

据欧易行情显示，BTC 跌破 42000 美元，现报 41992.1 美元，日内跌幅达到 1.14%，

比特币跌破 42000 美元 日内跌超 1%

贵州茅台披露了 2023 年度生产经营情况，预计全年营收近 1500 亿元，净利增幅超 17%。这家股王公司自 2019 年以来逐年保持增长态势，2023 年前三季度营业收入增幅为 17.3%，净利润增幅为 19.09%。贵州茅台也实施了每股现金分红 19.106 元，共计派发了 240.01 亿元现金红利。贵州茅台将在 2024 年 4 月 3 日披露 2023 年年报。

“股王” 贵州茅台全年成绩单来了：预计全年营收近 1500 亿元，净利增幅超 17%

BlackRock and Valkyrie Investments have designated broker-dealers as authorized participants for their physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. This is a significant milestone in the competition to track the original cryptocurrency through ETFs. BlackRock has named Jane Street Capital and J.P. Morgan Securities as authorized participants for its proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust. Valkyrie has also hired Jane Street Capital and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. for the same role, and may add additional authorized participants. This is an important step towards obtaining approval from US regulatory agencies.

One step closer to official approval! BlackRock and Valkyrie confirm the authorized participants' information for the Bitcoin ETF in spot trading.

The three major US stock indexes fell together for the first time this week, but still rose for nine consecutive weeks, with an annual increase of at least 10%. The Nasdaq 100 rose more than 50% for the year, marking the largest annual increase since the dot-com bubble in 1999. The chip index rose 65% for the year, achieving the largest increase since 2009. NVIDIA's stock rose nearly 240% in a year. Chinese concept stocks rose more than 1%, outperforming the market for three days this week. NTES-S rose more than 4%, Bilibili rose nearly 3%, XPENG rose nearly 2%, and NIO fell nearly 4%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by more than 100 basis points at the end of the year, marking the largest two-month decline since 2008. The yield on the 2-year bond fell nearly 20 basis points for the year, reversing the two-year upward trend. The US dollar index experienced the largest quarterly decline in a year, falling more than 2% for the year, marking the first annual decline in three years. The Japanese yen fell nearly 8% in a year. The offshore renminbi rose above 7.09, reaching a seven-month high, before falling back by more than 400 points. Crude oil fell for three consecutive days to a two-week low, with a 20% decline in the fourth quarter, marking the first annual decline in three years. US natural gas fell more than 40% for the year, marking the largest annual decline since 2006. Gold fell from its record high for several consecutive days, but rose more than 10% in the fourth quarter. London copper rose for two consecutive months and rebounded for the year, while London nickel and London cobalt fell more than 40% for the year.

The US stock market's upward momentum came to a halt on the last trading day of 2023, but still achieved the longest consecutive weekly gains since 2004. Chinese concept stocks outperformed the broader market once again, while nickel, cobalt, oil, and gas suffered a sharp decline throughout the year.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by approximately 65% for the whole year, marking the largest annual increase since 2009. Although the index closed lower on Friday, it still remains at a level close to its historical high. Wolfspeed was the only component stock among the 30 stocks in the index that experienced a decline.

US chip stocks achieve best annual performance since 2009, led by NVIDIA and AMD

JD.com sounds the battle horn.

The top ten bullish stocks in A-shares continue to perform well, with gains exceeding 310%. Kaihua Materials takes the lead with a 573% increase. The industries and themes of the top stocks are relatively diversified, with listings in the areas of Northbound Trading, AI Computing Power, Optical Communication, and Mergers and Acquisitions.

China's Asset Inventory in 2023: The CSI 50 Shines Alone, Hong Kong Stocks New Oriental and Ideal Lead the Blue Chips

极氪 CEO 安聪慧发布了新能源轿车极氪 007，宣称要颠覆特斯拉的纯电轿车赛道。该车在测试中击败特斯拉等竞品，并以低于 Model3 的价格上市。极氪 007 配备了高压快充、续航 870 公里的电池以及智能化技术。安聪慧表示，极氪 007 不仅是为了抢夺 Model3 的市场份额，更是要掀翻特斯拉，成为纯电轿车王。极氪此举被视为突围的举措，希望从细分市场转型。

车圈又出了一位狂人

In 2023, artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have become one of the hottest investment themes on Wall Street. Despite the impact of high interest rates on investor enthusiasm, overall, AI stocks have significantly outperformed the market this year. The outstanding performance of individual stocks such as NVIDIA and Meta Platforms has driven the overall rise of OpenAI concept stocks by over 72%. In comparison, the S&P 500 index has risen 25% year-to-date, the Nasdaq index has risen over 44%, and the Dow Jones index has risen nearly 14%. The continued strong demand for AI chips has driven NVIDIA's performance growth. Although investor enthusiasm for AI stocks has cooled in the second half of the year, AI stocks have still achieved strong gains this year. OpenAI concept stocks have outperformed the three major US indices in every quarter, with particularly impressive performance in the first half of the year.

Year-end review of US AI stocks: "Shovel Seller" NVIDIA emerges as the biggest winner, US stocks still need to pay attention to AI trends next year

康乐卫士计划南下二次上市，拟赴港交所上市。康乐卫士成为全市场首家明确 “港 + 北” 两地的公司。乐普生物也在筹划新三板挂牌，且不排除北交所上市的可能性。市场关注 “北 + 港” 第一股归属问题。康乐卫士虽未实现商业化产品，但其 HPV 疫苗研发进展领先。万泰生物或将成为首家申报九价 HPV 疫苗上市的国内企业。沃森生物、瑞科生物和神州细胞的九价 HPV 疫苗以及默沙东的九价 HPV 疫苗也在进展中。北交所与港交所签订合作谅解备忘录，支持双方市场已上市公司在对方市场申请上市。

康乐卫士欲抢 “北 + 港” 第一股？国产 HPV 疫苗火热激战

内资持续加仓港股医药公司，成为避风港。2023 年，内资在港股医药公司的持股占比平均提升了 4.48 个百分点，平均持仓约 15.5%。股价跌幅较深、质地好的优质公司受到内资青睐。近期 A 股低迷，估值历史低位的港股医药公司成为内资新的投资选择。内资持续注入是信号，预计港股医药公司将逐渐走出价值洼地。

大跌两年之后，港股医药公司成为内资避风港

据京东黑板报，12 月 29 日，北京市高级人民法院对京东诉浙江天猫网络有限公司、浙江天猫技术有限公司、阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 “二选一” 案做出一审判决，认定其滥用市场支配地位实施 “二选一” 的垄断行为成立，对京东造成严重损害，并判决向京东赔偿 10 亿元。

京东发布关于京东诉阿里巴巴 “二选一” 案一审胜诉的声明

2023 年最后一个交易日，恒指连续四年下跌已成现实，预计 2024 年初恒指或有一段向上的升浪，但失落周期仍将持续。对于炒港股，如果能跟随节奏，利用期权部署多空仓，比美股更容易操作。而美股方面，预计将在 1 月初涨到尽头而回跌一段。

理解市场 | 港股会有 “年初效应” 吗？

ZX INC's stock price has risen by over 4%, reaching a new high since its listing at the end of September, with a cumulative increase of 233%. ZX INC's main business focuses on China's marketing and operation of online games. The mobile game market is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% in 2022. The value output of the gaming industry relies on the supply of new content, and currently, the supply recovery is strong. The gaming industry is entering a new development cycle. The fundamentals of the gaming industry are solid, with A-share and Hong Kong-listed gaming companies valued at 17x/13x and 16x/11x, respectively.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | ZX INC rises over 4% to reach a new high since the end of September, with a cumulative increase of 233%. Institutions believe that the gaming industry is entering a new phase of development cycle.

SHANGHAI, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Zeekr, owned by China’s Geely, has signed an agreement with a Singaporean company to distribute right-hand drive Zeekr 009 MPVs and Zeekr X urban SUVs to customers in the island nation, a Zeekr spokesperson for the automaker said on Friday.The automaker plans to begin delivering the cars in the second half of 2024, the spokesperson said.Zeekr has previously announced plans to sell cars in Europe, the Middle East and some Asian markets.

China's Zeekr to begin selling EVs in Singapore in second half of 2024

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to post its biggest yearly gain in a decade. Despite trading lower on the final trading day of 2023, the index reached a 33-year high in November. The strong performance can be attributed to the yen's weakness against the dollar and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stakes in local firms. The broader Topix index also saw gains, supported by Toyota Motor and Sony Group.

Japan's Nikkei set to post biggest yearly gain in decade

中国国家新闻出版署发布了《网络游戏管理办法》，并征求社会公众的意见。中国音像与数字出版协会游戏出版工作委员会组织会员单位对该办法进行研读，并提出修改意见和建议。意见将于 2024 年 1 月 8 日前通过电子邮件方式反馈给中国音数协游戏工委。

中国音数协游戏工委就《网络游戏管理办法》征求意见

八大券商预计，港股明年有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情！中信证券建议投资者关注高股息策略和行业景气度转好的消费电子和汽车产业链。中金公司认为财政政策对港股至关重要，稳定现金流板块、高端科技升级板块和中端优势行业出海板块是关注的核心主线。

理解市场 | 港股 2024 年能否迎来转机？这些板块值得重点关注！

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

港股汽车股多数上涨，小鹏汽车涨超 4%，蔚来汽车涨超 2%，华晨中国、吉利汽车、理想汽车涨超 1%。

Asset management company Richard Bernstein Advisors' Chief Investment Officer, Richard Bernstein, believes that small and mid-cap US stocks may present investment opportunities in the next 10 years, no longer limited to the current market hot sectors. He believes that, similar to the past, changes in market leadership will bring buying opportunities, and overlooked and unpopular sectors are expected to generate high returns. He points out that the current focus on "glamorous" stocks is not rational, and besides that, there are rare investment opportunities in almost anything. Unlike previous market rebounds, he believes that this time the market will be boosted by broader economic resilience and corporate profitability. This information is related to investment research.

A Huge Opportunity Overlooked by the Market? Experts: Small and mid-cap US stocks are experiencing a "once-in-a-lifetime" market trend

Gold has been extremely popular this year, with both Costco Wholesale and Walmart starting to sell gold online. Against the backdrop of high inflation, gold has become the new favorite of American consumers. Costco Wholesale sold over $100 million worth of gold in the first quarter, and Walmart has also started selling gold and silver. The actions of these retail giants have sparked a gold rush, and the price of gold continues to rise. Spot gold has risen 14% since early October, reaching a new record of $2,088 per ounce this week.

How hot is gold this year? Costco Wholesale and Walmart are both starting to sell gold bars!

恒指开盘涨 0.13%，报 17066.52 点，恒生科技指数涨 0.38%。哔哩哔哩、蔚来、小鹏汽车、百度、美团涨超 2%。