百度去年第四季预计保持稳定增长，核心业务总收入可能按年增长 8% 至 277 亿元人民币，利润率保持稳定。广告收入可能按年增长 7%，但电商平台的广告支出转为价格补贴部分抵销该增长。云计算收入料将恢复 11% 的按季增长。由于芯片供应的不确定性，里昂将 2024 和 2025 年收入预测下调约 1%，并将目标价从 170 美元下调至 158 美元。每年约 40 亿美元的自由现金流亦可支持股票回购。

里昂：降百度目标价至 158 美元 料上季增长维持稳定

市场消息：快时尚公司 Shein 投资者正试图出售私募市场交易中的股份，对该公司的估值低至 450 亿美元。

On January 25th, HKEX CEO Charles Li attended the Asian Financial Forum and stated that Hong Kong had only recorded 73 IPOs last year, a historical low. However, considering the relatively weak global economic performance, the IPO level was still considered satisfactory. At the same time, in the past six weeks, 20 new stocks have been listed in Hong Kong, indicating that companies' investment intentions are increasing. On the other hand, under the linked exchange rate system, the rise in US interest rates will directly affect the Hong Kong capital market. In addition, inflation expectations, geopolitical issues such as the Middle East conflict, and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, economic recession, and inflation control are the focus of the capital market this year.

Champions League Rise: In the past six weeks, 20 new stocks have been listed in Hong Kong IPO, indicating that companies' investment intentions are currently strengthening.

美国股市创历史新高，相较于全球股市，美股估值溢价较大。一些投资者将目光投向海外以寻求超额回报。尽管美国股票表现优异，但标普 500 指数与其他国家股票指数的估值差距接近 20 多年来的最大值，使得一些投资者认为国外投资机会更具吸引力。虽然标普 500 指数在科技公司方面表现突出，但其远期盈利预期接近 20 倍，远高于长期平均水平。相比之下，MSCI 全球指数的市盈率较低。根据世界银行预测，2024 年美国国内生产总值...

分析 - 创历史新高的美股与全球同类股票相比更加昂贵

跨境 ETF 多数下跌，标普 ETF 跌近 7%，印度基金 LOF 和日经 ETF 跌超 5%，海外科技 LOF 和标普 500ETF 跌超 2%。

特斯拉近期宣布降价，引发汽车圈内的价格战紧张氛围。此次降价是特斯拉对 Model 3 和 Model Y 的多次调价中的一部分，降幅总体高于涨幅。此举可能对其他车企造成压力，需要提振销量。2024 年预计价格战仍将延续，头部新能源车企增速可能承压。电池成本的下降也为车企进一步降价提供了空间。奥迪 A4 售价不到 30 万元，被认为是特斯拉将价格战玩到极致的例证。价格战仍在继续，车企面临是否继续降价的问题。

宝马 3 系降价 10 万，奥迪 A4 卖不到 30 万，2024 年车企再打价格战

The growth of data and AI software revenue by 1% is seen as a significant signal of transformation.

AI business has doubled, IBM expects annual revenue growth to exceed expectations

恒生指数涨超 2%，恒生科技指数涨 1.2%，中字头股、科网股纷纷活跃，中国石油股份涨约 7%，中芯国际涨约 5%。

金十数据 1 月 25 日讯，交银国际将哔哩哔哩目标价调低至 13 美元或 101 港元，维持买入评级。交银国际维持第四季度用户/营收成长预期。该行预计哔哩哔哩第四财季流量增加 10%，营收年增 3%，与市场预期一致，并预计毛利率将年扩大 6 个百分点至 26%，经调整归母净亏损 5.8 亿元，较去年同期延续收窄趋势。交银国际维持第四财季手游收入预期，同比减少 6%。重点独家代理新游《炽焰天穹》/《三国：谋定天下》已获版号，关注上线进展。

交银国际：降哔哩哔哩目标价至 101 港元 维持买入评级

大摩维持特斯拉股票评级为 “增持”，目标价 345 美元。预计特斯拉 2024 年销量增长将降至 15%。特斯拉可能会继续测试较低的交易水平。特斯拉 2024 财年的资本支出预计至少为 100 亿美元。

大摩维持特斯拉 345 美元目标价，预计今年销量增长不到去年一半

Apple's smartphone shipments in China decreased by 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year, but Apple became the top smartphone maker in the market. Huawei's shipments, on the other hand, increased by 36.2% in the same quarter, making them the fourth largest smartphone maker in China with a 13.9% market share. Overall, China's smartphone market saw a 1.2% increase in shipment volume for the quarter, reaching 73.63 million units. For the full year, shipment volume was 271 million units, a decrease of 5%.

Apple smartphone shipments in China shrink 2.1% in fourth quarter - IDC

After a five-day consecutive increase, on Wednesday, Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 broke through 4867 points, achieving an index level that Bloomberg analysts predicted would take nearly 11 months to reach in just 24 days.

In just 24 days, the US stock market has already surpassed the "Wall Street annual target". Is it rising too fast?

Deutsche Bank predicts a slowdown in the US economy, which could lead to a market correction in the coming months. The bank's chief investment officer stated that the US economic growth rate this year could be 0.8%, lower than expected. It is expected that the stock market may decline by 5% to 10% in the short term. Citigroup also warned that Nasdaq futures positions are close to the highest level in three years, posing a risk of profit-taking. Despite this, there are still investors who believe that the stock market will continue to rise. The current focus is on the US fourth-quarter GDP data and the inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve.

Deutsche Bank joins Citigroup in bearish view: The timing is ripe for a 10% decline in US stocks.

Apple is working tirelessly to "recruit and buy horses" to bring AI into the next generation of iOS operating systems, enabling the generation of AI to run on mobile devices instead of being supported by cloud services in data centers.

Apple accelerates "AI on-device" and focuses on tackling "large models on mobile devices"

Earnings reports from AI chip giants have brought continuous good news, signaling the strong demand for AI and causing a surge in technology stocks. Overnight, AMD and Alphabet-C reached new historical highs, while Microsoft and Meta Platforms achieved consecutive all-time highs for two days.

Strong earnings reports recharge "AI faith", technology stocks "explode" European and American stock indices

Citigroup has added PayPal to its 30-day negative catalyst watchlist, believing that the company's recovery in gross transaction volume will take longer than expected. Ashwin Shirvaikar, an analyst at Citigroup, wrote in a note to clients, "Exiting low-margin contracts is one potential way to address this situation, which would result in slower growth in total payment volume. Investors may interpret this change as a negative performance, but it is a necessary step." He believes that given the current uncertainty, the new management team may choose not to provide full-year guidance, which could be seen as another negative surprise. It is reported that the catalyst watchlist will expire on February 24th. PayPal's stock price fell 2.72% in Wednesday's trading. Seeking Alpha rates PayPal as "neutral" in its quantitative rating, while the average rating from platform analysts and Wall Street is "buy".

The future market is not optimistic. Citigroup has listed PayPal on its 30-day negative catalyst watchlist.

小红书、京东和支付宝都加入了春晚流量大战。小红书与央视春晚合作，提供笔记和直播分享平台。京东也确认将重返春晚。支付宝推出 “集五福” 活动，试图在春节期间获取更多用户流量。这些互联网大厂都积极参与今年的春晚，争夺流量大战的胜利者。

京东小红书支付宝，血拼春节档

中国央行降准超预期，传递出两个重要信息：一是货币政策将推动名义增长回升和通胀中枢正常化，重点关注资本市场运行环境；二是降准可提振市场预期、满足短期和中长期流动性需求、降低银行负债成本。

政策解读 | 中国降准超预期，更重要的信号是央行两个表态！

Tesla stated that the "next wave of growth will be triggered by the global expansion of the next generation of vehicles." However, Tesla spends more time talking about Optimus Prime than electric cars, and they believe that humanoid robots may eventually become the company's largest business.

Tesla Phone Conference: Tesla praises "Optimus Prime", "boasts" AI efficiency as the most advanced, expects new vehicle to start production by the end of 2025

贝莱德旗下比特币现货 ETF 从 Coinbase Prime 收到 6495 枚 BTC。美国 SEC 主席表示，对比特币现货 ETF 的批准不应过度解读。特斯拉去年第四季度未出售或买入比特币。分析师指出，GBTC 成交量再次下降，可能是抛售趋势力竭迹象。美国 SEC 去年实施了 46 项加密货币相关执法行动，创历史新高。币安鼓励用户在 2024 年 1 月 31 日之前将卢布兑换成其他货币。加密借贷平台 Nexo 中止向保加利亚寻求 30 亿美元赔偿的调查。美国比特币现货 ETF 总资产净值为 251.7 亿美元，灰度占比约 80%。印度尼西亚 2023 年的加密货币税收收入下降 63% 至 3170 万美元。美国所有比特币现货 ETF 连续 8 个交易日资金净流出 1.06 亿美元。国际能源署预计，未来三年数据中心、加密货币和 AI 的全球电力需求将增加一倍以上。美 SEC 进一步要求 Ripple 提供相关证据，并寻求对其进行处罚。

每日数字货币动态汇总

CHALIECO's stock price surged by more than 19%, with a trading volume of HKD 5.15 million. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders, in order to guide them to pay attention to the market performance of listed companies and improve shareholder returns. The reduction in domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots and the tightening supply are expected to maintain a strong aluminum price. Therefore, the bank recommends electrolytic aluminum companies with scale advantages, low costs, and growth potential.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | CHALIECO surges over 19%, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders.

港股三大运营商拉升，港股中国联通涨超 5%，中国电信涨近 4%，中国移动涨超 2%。

* 恒指升幅扩至逾百点 重上万六水平

* 恒指升幅扩至逾百点  重上万六水平

The continuous rise of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 in the US stock market has exceeded analysts' year-end expectations, causing concerns among the bulls. The stock market has been driven up by the optimism fueled by the rise in the stock prices of NVIDIA and Microsoft. However, the speed of the rise in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 has raised concerns among some seasoned professionals that a speculative bubble similar to the late 1990s may occur. They are worried that there may be a "melt-up" dominated by technology stocks, ultimately leading to a market crash.

Sound the alarm! The rapid rise of the US stock market has veteran bulls worried about a repeat of the 1990s crash.

港股新能源汽车股震荡走低，蔚来跌超 7%，小鹏汽车跌超 6%，理想汽车跌超 5%，长城汽车、比亚迪股份跌超 3%。

* 高盛料人行首季及第三季下调政策利率 次季及第四季降准

* 高盛料人行首季及第三季下调政策利率  次季及第四季降准

中金发布研究报告，维持阿里巴巴-SW“跑赢行业” 评级，目标价 109 港元。报告下调公司 2024 和 2025 财年净利润预期。马云和蔡崇信增持阿里股份。阿里巴巴回购普通股，流通股净减少 3.3%。阿里巴巴-SW 股价上涨 7.32% 至 72.6 港元，投行买入评级，目标均价 105.49 港元。阿里巴巴-SW 港股市值 14791.7 亿港元，排名零售行业第 1。以上信息由中金发布的研究报告整理生成。

中金发布研究报告称，维持阿里巴巴-SW“跑赢行业” 评级，目标价 109 港元

“利润水平，尤其是纳斯达克的利润水平，正日益受到关注，持仓和利润都在扩大，平均多头头寸的利润接近 5%，增加了获利回吐的风险，并为短期内的持续反弹创造了潜在的阻力。”

理解市场 | 美股短期内为何可能下跌 10%？

恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至超 1.5%，恒指跌 0.3%。

德银全球首席投资官克里斯蒂安·诺尔廷周四表示，美国经济今年的增长率可能为 0.8%，远低于 2023 年 2.3% 的预期增速。随着这种减速渗透到股市，短期内可能会出现较当前水平下跌 5% 至 10% 的情况。

德银：美国今年经济增长将大幅放缓，股市短期内或下跌 10%

特斯拉公司推出的人形机器人擎天柱在首尔移动展亮相，马斯克表示其可以带领特斯拉成为人工智能巨头。特斯拉发布第四季度财报，马斯克回应了其要求特斯拉 25% 投票权一事，表示特斯拉在人工智能推理领域效率最高，但对渗透特斯拉机构股东的激进分子持谨慎态度。马斯克还提到，人形机器人擎天柱有潜力远远超过特斯拉其他产品的价值总和，部分擎天柱很有可能在明年交付。马斯克强调特斯拉正在确保擎天柱的安全性。

特斯拉人形机器人最早明年交付，马斯克：价值潜力远超其他产品总和

港股内房股拉升，富力地产涨超 12%，新城发展、越秀地产涨超 5%，龙湖集团涨超 4%。

The stock prices of XPENG-W and Li Auto-W fell in early trading, dropping by over 6% and 3.75% respectively. In addition, Tesla's fourth-quarter adjusted revenue was lower than expected, causing its stock price to decline in after-hours trading. UBS released a research report pointing out that the Chinese electric vehicle industry is facing challenges in price competition. Large companies such as BYD and CATL will become market consolidators, while smaller, loss-making companies will face greater difficulties. The deteriorating refinancing environment will also limit companies' investments in research and development and market positioning.

Hong Kong Stock Market Update | XPENG-W drops over 6%, leading the decline in automotive stocks. Tesla's fourth-quarter adjusted revenue falls below expectations.

SK 海力士公布了亮眼的第四季度财报，营业利润首次扭亏为盈。由于高端存储芯片需求上升，AI 存储芯片 HBM3 和大容量移动 DRAM 销售额大幅增长。SK 海力士成为韩国市值第二高的公司，是高带宽存储芯片市场的领导者。投资者看好 AI 发展推动对下一代 DRAM 的新需求。尽管半导体市场低迷，但行业高管预计市场将逐步反弹，特别是随着 AI 技术的发展。SK 海力士计划增加资本支出，优先考虑高带宽内存和其他战略产品。三星电子公布的业绩令人失望，显示出市场的压力，但该行业前景仍然乐观。

芯片市场开始复苏？SK 海力士一年来首次扭亏为盈

BTFP 到期不续或 “埋下伏笔”。若流动性风险在三月集中爆发，降息不足以平息风波，接下来美联储只能结束 QT，甚至重启 QE。

美联储官宣 “终结、加息”！“三月大戏” 即将上演？

港股开盘，恒指开涨 0.57%，科指开涨 0.03%。科网股涨跌不一，百度涨约 2%，东方甄选跌超 6%。

The new model is priced at $25,000 and adopts a more efficient and cost-effective "unpacking process".

Tesla: The goal is to launch the next generation of cars by the end of 2025, and Tesla is currently in between two "waves of growth".

SK 海力士：2024 年将继续削减传统芯片产量。

Sales of colorectal cancer early screening products have exceeded 1 billion yuan, but the market is more concerned about the company's cash flow and accounts receivable.

Noah's 1 billion target for a single product has been achieved, but the market is more eager for positive cash flow?

在特斯拉 2023 四季度及全年业绩电话会上，特斯拉 CEO 马斯克表示，“坦率地说，如果不建立贸易壁垒，中国车企几乎会摧毁世界上大多数其他汽车公司，他们非常好。” 马斯克表示，我们没有看到与中国汽车制造商合作的明显机会，除非允许他们使用特斯拉的充电网络或许可其使用自动驾驶技术。

马斯克财报会 “再吹” 中国车企：全球最有竞争力

SK 海力士四季度运营利润 3460.3 亿韩元，好于分析师预期的亏损 1699.1 亿韩元，Q3 亏损 1.79 万亿韩元。毛利润率为 20%，为连续第三个季度回升。

AI 需求火爆！ SK 海力士四季度意外盈利，HBM3 增长超过五倍，正在开发 HBM4

特斯拉：预计今年电池业务的增速料将超过电动汽车的增幅。

在电话会上，马斯克提到 FSD 自动驾驶时称特斯拉是 AI 应用效率全球最高的公司。他表示新的汽车制造系统将被用在奥斯汀超级工厂制造的下一代车型上，然后将其推广到墨西哥新工厂以及其他超级工厂。他指出，其他汽车制造商对特斯拉 (TSLA) 授权 FSD 的兴趣不大。在被问到有关马斯克最近的 AI 声明的问题时，马斯克表示，他推动加强控制是基于对人工智能变得过于强大的危险的担忧，以及激进投资者可能会对潜在危险技术的决策产生不当影响。据称，Cybertruck 的需求已经 “摆脱困境”，但没有透露任何细节。马斯克强调，擎天柱人形机器人正在快速发展。展望未来，马斯克认为 Optimus 最终可能成为公司最大的业务。最后，马斯克表示，他猜测特斯拉 (TSLA) 可能成为全球最有价值公司。目前，特斯拉市值为 6610 亿美元，是美国第十大公司。

特斯拉财报电话会热点：AI、超级工厂计划、Cyber​​truck 和 Optimus 机器人

NVIDIA, AMD, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet-C reached historic highs, while Bitcoin fell to $40,000. Tesla's fourth-quarter EPS was lower than expected, and no specific delivery targets were given. Boeing's Max aircraft production expansion was halted by regulatory agencies. Tesla may deliver humanoid robot "Optimus" next year. Jack Ma replaced SoftBank as Alibaba's largest shareholder.

Breakfast | SPDR S&P 500 hits four-day high, NVIDIA and other star stocks reach new highs, Tesla's earnings report guidance is not optimistic.

马斯克表示，Cybertruck 今年的产量已几乎售罄。他说:“这是生产受限的情况，而不是需求受限的情况”，“我们可以大幅提价，但感觉不对。”

马斯克称 Cybertruck 今年产量几乎售罄

马斯克在财报会上表示，特斯拉可能会举办另一次 AI 日活动。马斯克说:“我们发现，我们的一些竞争对手一帧一帧地看我们做什么，然后我们发现这些东西被复制了”，“电池日也是一样。” 马斯克补充说，举办这些活动的主要目标是招聘。

马斯克称特斯拉可能举办另一次 AI 日活动

历次降准降息后的市场演绎规律是降准后市场短期提振效应明显，TMT、家电、医药医美行业相对占优。降息前市场已开启对降息预期的交易，降息当日交易充分、市场上涨，大盘风格略占优。近五年调降 LPR 后煤炭、农业、石油石化、银行表现较好。当前时点若降准但利率保持原水平，对微观流动性影响偏中性，但有助于引导市场对宽信用的预期，提振 A 股市场风险偏好。

历次降准降息后，市场怎么走？

Tesla has announced its financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2023, and both revenue and profit fell short of expectations. The fourth-quarter profit dropped by nearly 40%, marking the first annual decline since 2017. Tesla has warned that sales growth in 2024 will slow down, causing the stock price to drop more than 5% after hours. The earnings report shows that Tesla's automotive revenue growth has been weak, with gross margins falling to the lowest level since 2019. Annual revenue increased by 19% YoY, reaching a historical high. Adjusted net profit and EBITDA declined YoY, attributed to the decrease in average vehicle selling price and increased operating expenses. Tesla is facing challenges of slowing sales and profit pressure.

"Price war" impact on Tesla's profits, the first decline in 7 years! After-hours trading fell more than 5%, warning of a significant slowdown in sales in 2024.

马斯克在财报会上表示，他正在寻求对特斯拉的额外控制权，这样他就可以在公司人工智能和机器人技术的处理上有更大的影响力。马斯克说:“我看到了一条通往创造一个真正具有巨大能力和力量的人工智能和机器人巨人的道路。”“我不想控制它，” 他说，寻求更多投票权是因为不想 “被某个随机的股东咨询公司投票否决”。

马斯克：寻求更多投票权是为扩大影响力，不是控制特斯拉

特斯拉在财报中披露，目前美国得克萨斯州超级工厂 Cybertruck 皮卡年产能少于 12.5 万辆。特斯拉表示，考虑到 Cybertruck 的制造复杂性，其预计该车型产能爬坡期较其他车型更长。