The Middle East situation is impacting the global financial markets. Citibank believes that in case of escalated conflict, gold and the Japanese yen are better safe-haven choices. The risk of a significant increase in oil prices is low, and the global market may return to a trading pattern centered around the Federal Reserve. During periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset. Citibank predicts that the current oil market has already absorbed some risk premium, and has raised its short-term oil price forecast to $88. Goldman Sachs believes that if the Middle East situation escalates, oil prices could rise to $100

The best hedge trades for geopolitical conflicts: crude oil, gold, or Japanese yen?

The US stock market is at risk of a potential pullback due to stretched positioning, according to Citigroup's strategists. Investors have been pouring billions of dollars into US stock futures, leading to a "very extended" positioning. This trend, coupled with the potential risks of a weaker jobs report, raises concerns. Other global markets, including Europe and Japan, also show signs of profit-taking risks. It is important for investors to closely monitor economic indicators for any shifts in sentiment.

Citi says stretched positioning set to fuel US stock pullback

全球股指 MSCI 在 4 月累跌 4%，接近超卖水平。这一下跌主要由于美联储的宽松押注力度减弱和中东冲突的升级。MSCI 全球指数的 14 天相对强弱指数降至去年 10 月以来的水平，如果低于 30，可能表明市场动能逆转。该指数有望创下去年 10 月以来首次单月跌幅。

MSCI 全球股指 4 月已累跌 4%，RSI 接近超卖水平

港股半导体股多数下跌，晶门半导体、华虹半导体跌超 5%，上海复旦、中芯国际跌超 3%。

Crypto.com 交易所负责人 Kris Marszalek 近日表示，随着所谓减半日期的临近，比特币抛售可能会变得明显，但从长期来看，这一事件将支撑这一最大数字资产的价格。比特币的最近一次减半预计将在 4 月 20 日左右进行

Crypto.com 首席执行官称比特币减半期间可能出现明显抛售

The Bitcoin halving date is approaching, which will lead to an increase in selling pressure. However, in the long term, the halving event will support the price of Bitcoin. The head of Crypto.com exchange stated that the halving has a positive effect on the price of Bitcoin, but there are doubts in the market about the impact of the halving. Bitcoin is currently down 2.64% to $62,864. The CEO of Crypto.com expects Bitcoin to perform well in the six months after the halving. Crypto.com is one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, currently expanding and with hundreds of job vacancies

Bitcoin halving is "on the horizon" Industry insiders say: Short-term selling is inevitable but long-term will support the rise

港股科技股集体下跌，哔哩哔哩、快手、商汤、小米集团、美团跌幅超过 3%。

The CEO of DeepMind, an AI research department under Google, stated that Google will invest over $100 billion in artificial intelligence technology. He mentioned that Google has more powerful computing capabilities than its competitors, and partners with Google because they know that achieving general artificial intelligence requires a large amount of computing power. The public is already prepared to accept AI systems, even though they still have flaws and are prone to errors

DeepMind CEO: Google will invest over $100 billion in AI

预计香港证监会将在 4 月底一次批准首批虚拟货币 ETF，与美国证交会批准比特币现货 ETF 类似。多家资管公司已获得香港证监会有条件批准，计划发行投资比特币和以太币的 ETF 产品。嘉实国际和博时基金等公司也宣布获得批准。

传香港证监会或月底一次过批出首批虚拟货币 ETF

Apple's iPhone global shipments suffered a heavy blow in the first quarter, with a nearly 10% year-on-year decline, market share dropping to less than 20%, losing the top spot in phone shipments. Samsung reclaimed the top spot, with market share rising to over 20%. Xiaomi saw rapid growth in shipments, ranking third with a market share of 14%. Transsion Holdings' shipments surged by 85% to reach 28.5 million units

Sales slump, Apple loses its top spot in smartphone shipments, Samsung takes the lead, while Xiaomi grows rapidly to rank third!

中国 3 月社会消费品零售总额年率 3.1%，预期 4.6%。

中国 3 月规模以上工业增加值同比 4.5%。

中国一季度 GDP 同比 5.3%，前值 5.2%。

Wedbush believes that the recent dip in tech stocks presents a strong buying opportunity, with an expected 15% increase by the end of the year. Solid corporate earnings reports season may drive tech stocks to achieve double-digit gains once again. Higher-than-expected inflation levels in the past three months have reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June to 18% according to investors. However, Wedbush sees the profit environment for tech companies still looking strong, especially considering the frenzy around artificial intelligence. A robust earnings season could be a major positive catalyst for tech stocks. Based on Wedbush's consumer survey, consumer spending trends for internet companies in the first quarter are "strong". Strong growth is also expected in digital advertising, which will be a positive factor for companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta. The industry is expected to see a $1 trillion impact in AI spending over the next decade

Unafraid of the pullback! Wedbush calls for bottom fishing in tech stocks, expecting another 15% increase by the end of the year

3 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比降幅略有收窄，同比降幅扩大，统计局称 2024 年 3 月份，70 个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅成交量比前期有所上升。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.1%，降幅比上月收窄 0.2 个百分点。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同。一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降 7.3%，降幅比上月扩大 1.0 个百分点。三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降 5.9%，降幅比上月扩大 0.8 个百分点。

中国 3 月各线城市新房、二手房价格环比降幅收窄，同比降幅扩大

紫金矿业股价创新高。紫金矿业涨 0.7%，报 18.59 元/股，股价再创新高，总市值突破 4894.00 亿元，成交额达 2.47 亿元。

紫金矿业股价创新高

Huachen China fell more than 6% in early trading. As of the time of publication, it has fallen by 3.67% to HKD 7.08, with a turnover of HKD 109 million. On the news front, Huachen China stated that, after considering the group's financial and cash flow situation, as well as any possible new strategic investment options, the board of directors has decided to declare a special dividend of HKD 1.5 per share. It is expected to be distributed in cash to shareholders listed on the company's share register as of May 3rd, with a payment date around May 17th. The company mentioned that after the distribution of the special dividend, most of the net proceeds from the sale of 25% equity in Huachen BMW will be distributed to shareholders through the special dividend, while the remaining net proceeds will be retained as the group's operating funds. The company may consider further dividend distributions within the year based on its cash flow situation

Hong Kong Stock Market News | Brilliance China's stock price dropped by over 6%, announcing a special dividend of HKD 1.5 per share. Most of the proceeds from the sale of Brilliance BMW's equity have been distributed

港股开盘，恒指开跌 1.4%，科指开跌 1.89%。汽车股多数下跌，蔚来汽车跌近 7%，理想汽车、小鹏汽车跌超 3%。

英伟达、英特尔、高通等半导体巨头均有研发中心位于以色列。分析人士认为，此次冲突对芯片产业链的整体影响还要看冲突持续时长，以色列当地芯片制造产能有限，当地较多的芯片设计公司或部门受冲突影响则理应较小。

理解市场 | 以色列冲突对英伟达、英特尔有多大影响？

新加坡总理李显龙将于 5 月 15 日辞职，交棒给黄循财。黄循财将出任新总理，并于当天晚上 8 时在新加坡总统府宣誓就职。李显龙在社交媒体上确认了这一消息，并呼吁民众支持新团队。黄循财是新加坡人民行动党的第四代领导团队新领导人，曾任新加坡抗击新冠疫情工作组负责人。李显龙是现年 72 岁的总理，自 2004 年以来连任总理。

新加坡总理李显龙将于 5 月 15 日辞职，交棒给黄循财

日本当局似乎对 150 日元左右的汇率相当满意，不需要日元升至 125 或 130 的水平，因为那会带来通缩冲击。目前对冲基金已将日元空头头寸增加至 2018 年 1 月以来的最高水平。

跌到 154 只是开始？日元为何可能会再跌 10%？

The Bitcoin ETF's fundraising ability is at its peak, driving Bitcoin's market share in the cryptocurrency field to a new high since 2021. Bitcoin occupies over half of the $2.4 trillion cryptocurrency market, reflecting the market's demand for a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by the U.S. SEC, as well as the decline in market capitalization of smaller tokens. Bitcoin's market share in the $2.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has reached nearly 55%, the highest level since 2021. U.S. asset management giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments have launched U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs accumulating assets of around $56 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by about 6% amid profit-taking sentiment and a cooling expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve

Bitcoin ETF's fundraising ability is at its peak! Driving Bitcoin's market share in the cryptocurrency field to a new high since 2021

US retail data hits interest rate cut expectations, Morgan Stanley bearish on US earnings season, escalating Middle East risks and other factors led to a sharp drop in US stocks. Tesla's senior vice president was reported to have resigned. Goldman Sachs said hedge funds may sell off $42 billion worth of stocks recently. Institutions believe that Apple's valuation is attractive after the drop, and is expected to ride the AI wave. The lock-up volume of Micron Technology's SU7 exceeded 60,000. Apple's iPhone shipments in the first quarter fell by nearly 10%. HSBC raised AMD's rating

Breakfast | S&P 500 falls below the 50-day moving average. Dow Jones falls for the sixth consecutive day, Morgan Stanley is bearish on the US earnings season

“这个市场早该回调了”？！对于迎来财报季的美股而言，接下来市场风格将如何演绎或决定本轮牛市的最终命运！从技术面角度而言，如果标普有效跌破 50 日均线，可能预示着未来将进一步回落。

七巨头中三家 “熄火”！科技股分化对市场意味着什么？

特斯拉的核心竞争力的确是来自于领先的电动化产品和 FSD，而如今来看特斯拉在这两项产品上都做得还不够好。Robotaxi 能否盈利倒是其次，而是存在的诸多限制，很难帮助特斯拉实现他们 “降低硬件利润，靠软件盈利” 的远大理想。

裁员 10%，为何解决不了特斯拉的远虑近忧？

UBS analysts stated that although UBS's baseline scenario predicts two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, they now believe that if the US economy continues to expand resiliently and inflation remains stagnant at 2.5% or higher, the risk of the Fed resuming rate hikes early next year will be high, with the federal funds rate possibly reaching 6.5% by mid-next year. Investors are starting to worry that the US economy may be overheating. If the Fed shifts back to rate hikes, it will trigger significant selling in the US bond and stock markets

UBS told a "ghost story": The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to 6.5% next year

Trump Media &amp; Tech(DJT) fell 18.35%, with a trading turnover 203.9 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 52.1%. Biohaven Pharmaceutical(BHVN) fell 15.66%, with a trading turnover 155.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 4.6%. Canopy Growth(CGC) fell 10.51%, with a trading turnover 57.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 36.6%.

Top 10 US Stock Losers (4.15)

Medical Properties Trust(MPW) rose 18.8%, with a trading turnover 271.7 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 3.5%. Piedmont Lithium(PLL) rose 15.77%, with a trading turnover 161.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 48%. Encore Wire(WIRE) rose 11.59%, with a trading turnover 901.0 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 36.4%.

Top 10 US Stock Gainers (4.15)

Goldman Sachs(GS) rose 2.92%, with a trading turnover 2.5 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 4.7%. Intel(INTC) rose 1.74%, with a trading turnover 1.8 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 27.6%. Salesforce(CRM) fell 7.28%, with a trading turnover 5.1 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 3.9%. Tesla(TSLA) fell 5.59%, with a trading turnover 16.4 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 35%.

Top 5 US Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (4.15)

Kuke Music(KUKE) rose 47.95%, with a trading turnover 1.6 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 214.8%. Yatsen(YSG) rose 12.62%, with a trading turnover 2.3 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 7.3%. Bit Digital(BTBT) fell 8.74%, with a trading turnover 16.7 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 55.6%. Canaan(CAN) fell 5.83%, with a trading turnover 10.0 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 51.1%.

Top 5 CDRs Gainers/Losers (>100M) (4.15)

New York Fed President Williams stated that the recent US inflation data is not a turning point, but it may affect its forecasts. He believes that the current monetary policy is restrictive, and if inflation continues to fall, the Fed may start cutting interest rates this year. In addition, Williams pointed out that Fed officials are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, but do not consider it a major factor affecting the US economic outlook. Data released on Monday showed a decrease in the size of overnight reverse repurchase agreements by the Fed, seen as a signal of an upcoming slowdown in balance sheet reduction

The three key figures of the Federal Reserve sing a different tune from market expectations: they do not believe that the recent US inflation data marks a turning point

Trend-following hedge funds could sell up to $42 billion in US shares if the stock market continues to decline, according to a Goldman Sachs note. A fall in the S&P 500 below 5,135 points would trigger equity sales, with potential sales of $20 billion in the index and over $200 billion in global equities. Hedge funds have also been net buyers of Chinese equities for the third straight week.

HEDGE FLOW-Trend hedge funds could sell up to $42 bln in US shares, says Goldman

比特币失守 63000 美元/枚，日内跌幅 1.38%。

Morgan Stanley believes that in the current market environment, shorting the Euro/US Dollar offers higher returns. The escalating tensions in the Middle East and increasing geopolitical risks have heightened market risk aversion. Morgan Stanley sees profit opportunities for the Euro in "Regime 2" and "Regime 3", but in "Regime 3", the rising geopolitical risks along with the potential divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have increased the risk/reward ratio of this trade. Morgan Stanley recommends investors to short the Euro/US Dollar position in the current market environment

Morgan Stanley: Shorting EUR/USD remains a good choice as the US Dollar Index surges

Apple's smartphone sales dropped 10% last quarter, mainly due to a decline in China. Despite challenges, Apple has been resilient compared to other brands. Samsung has regained the top spot in smartphone manufacturing, with Android expected to grow at twice the pace of iOS. The resurgence of Chinese brands like Huawei and Xiaomi may continue to impact Apple's market share. Apple's lack of focus on artificial intelligence is also noted. Samsung, on the other hand, has emphasized AI advancements in its latest flagship lineup.

iPhone sales are plunging. Here’s why

HSBC's research report indicates that investors' confidence in the Hong Kong stock market is increasing, and the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market are improving. HSBC predicts that the Hang Seng Index will reach 19,230 points by the end of 2024, with an upside potential of about 15%. Six major signs indicate that investor confidence is improving, including reduced downward revisions in profit expectations, bright spots in profit growth prospects, positive stock price reactions to good news, and increased dividends. It is expected that multiple industries will bring double-digit profit growth. Overall, HSBC is optimistic about the performance of the Hong Kong stock market

HSBC: Six reasons to be bullish on Hong Kong stocks! AI, value stocks, overseas enterprises, and state-owned enterprises will shine

Some of the most "explosive" names in China's private equity industry over the past decade are returning to the forefront of performance. Veterans like Deng Xiaofeng and Liang Wentao have achieved significant investment returns in the private equity industry, demonstrating their value and capabilities. Deng Xiaofeng has remained committed to the domestic market, with significant holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with stocks of Zijin Mining also bringing in huge profits. His investment strategy demonstrates a value-oriented style. The return of these private equity heavyweights is of great significance to the entire industry

"Old soldiers never fade"! Private equity heavyweights are returning to the forefront

Boeing's delivery volume in the first quarter of 2024 declined, being surpassed by Airbus. Boeing delivered 83 commercial aircraft, while Airbus delivered 142. The incident of Boeing cabin door detachment had a negative impact on its operations, leading to a decrease in delivery volume. Boeing and Airbus are competitors in the global commercial aircraft manufacturing sector. According to data, Boeing had been leading in delivery volume before 2019, but due to the occurrence of two 737 MAX 8 crash incidents, Boeing's leading position no longer exists. It is expected that Boeing's delivery data will improve in the second half of the year

The crisis continues as Boeing's delivery volume in the first quarter of 2024 is surpassed by Airbus

OpenAI has established an office in Tokyo to enter the Japanese market and has launched a Japanese GPT custom model. The company has appointed former Amazon Japan CEO Tadao Nagasaki to lead its Japan business. OpenAI has already set up offices in London and Dublin, with Japan being an important market for them to explore new revenue streams. Japanese companies are heavily investing in large language models, and OpenAI's clients in Japan include Toyota, Daikin Industries, and local governments. In addition, Microsoft also plans to invest $29 billion in cloud computing and AI infrastructure in Japan over the next two years

Entering the Japanese market! OpenAI establishes an office in Tokyo and will launch a Japanese language GPT custom model

Chinese EV startup Nio Inc. is up over 1% in premarket trading after announcing its plans to unveil the 2024 ET5 sedan and ES7 SUV at the Beijing International Automotive Exhibition. Nio aims to showcase its advanced manufacturing capabilities and full-stack technologies at the event, positioning itself as a key competitor to Tesla in China.

Why Tesla Rival Nio Is Up Over 1% Premarket Today

Tesla's stock price has fallen, with the latest survey showing that the majority of consumers have a lower psychological price for the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system than the current selling price. The pricing of FSD exceeds the acceptable range for the vast majority of consumers. The survey results indicate that only 5.6% of respondents are willing to pay $12,000 to purchase FSD, while 82.7% of respondents are only willing to pay $10,000 or less. Tesla is attempting to promote the adoption of FSD by reducing its subscription fee, but it appears that FSD is not the panacea for saving Tesla's stock price

Will FSD be the panacea to save Tesla's stock price? It doesn't seem to be the case at the moment

Lithography machine leader ASML will announce its financial report before the market opens on April 17th, while TSMC will announce its financial report before the US stock market opens on April 18th

WSB Hot Discussion | Intel not only leaked, but also fell nearly 20% in two weeks

国泰君安召开业绩说明会，回应投资者关注的新国九条、股价、分红、投行等问题。朱健董事长表示，公司将积极把握政策机遇，推动高质量发展，打造一流投资银行，助力中国特色现代资本市场和上海 “五个中心” 建设。同时，朱健还补充了新国九条的发展目标和蓝图。此外，还有个人投资者提问公司对做强做优的定义和努力方向。

新 “掌门” 新思路！朱健 ‘’ 掌舵” 国泰君安后首开业绩说明会

95% of the profits come from 5% of the trades

From going from 400 to 200 million, what are the reasons for the guru's 80% huge loss?

JD.com rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, Nio rose 2%, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Bilibili, NetEase rose over 1%, Alibaba, XPeng, Baidu rose nearly 1%. Nvidia, Meta rose over 1%, Apple fell over 1%, Tesla fell 0.5%

Pre-market trading in US stocks: JD.com leads Chinese concept stocks, Nvidia and Meta lead technology stocks! Gold concept stocks are rising

A subsidiary of OSL Group has become the first virtual asset trading and custody partner of Huaxia Fund Hong Kong, providing support to it. This marks a breakthrough development in the digital asset field for the financial industry in Hong Kong, ushering in a new era for digital asset investment. Leveraging its robust infrastructure and high standards of security and regulatory requirements, OSL provides a secure trading environment and reliable asset management for ETF operations. As the only listed company in Hong Kong focusing on digital assets, OSL Group stands out in the industry with its compliant operating model, operational experience, and market reputation

OSL Group's subsidiary becomes the first virtual asset trading and virtual asset custody partner of Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong)

OSL Group announced that its digital asset trading platform has been appointed as the virtual asset trading and custody partner for Jia Shi International and Huaxia Fund, and plans to launch the first spot Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF. This will make Hong Kong one of the leading markets globally, attracting a large amount of funds and investors into the digital asset market

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF. OSL has been appointed as the trading platform and custodian for CSOP Global and Huaxia Fund's virtual asset

Morgan Stanley expects Tencent's first-quarter revenue to increase by 5% year-on-year, with steady growth expected in gross profit and net profit, estimated to increase by 18% and 25% respectively year-on-year. The increased stock buyback after Prosus' first-quarter sell-off is expected to offset it. The risks of NetEase's traditional games and expectations for new games are affected, but its performance in the second half of the year is still optimistic

Rating Quick Look | Wall Street calls Tencent at HKD 400! Netease, HKEX target prices lowered

Jiuhao Company is a technology-driven tech company, mainly engaged in the design, research and development, sales, and services of intelligent short-distance transportation and service robot products. The company holds a leading position in the electric balance car and electric two-wheeler market, driving industry technological restructuring through self-developed technology and user demand. Jiuhao Company's advanced technology and commercial scale provide sustained momentum, enhancing the overall technological competitiveness of China's short-distance transportation industry. In the wave of intelligence, Jiuhao Company will become a global leader in smart mobility capabilities