On September 19, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it would cut its base rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, down from 5.75%. Overnight, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis points rate cut. Under the linked exchange rate system in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority responded to the US rate cut by lowering the base rate to 5.25%

Hong Kong Monetary Authority cuts benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%

Pacific Investment Management Company economist Tiffany Wilding stated that the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut on September 18th indicates that policymakers are aiming for a quicker policy normalization. It is expected that the next few meetings will see 25 basis point rate cuts, but the Fed's actions still depend on economic data. If the economic situation worsens, rate cuts may accelerate

Wall Street is still debating whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points tomorrow night. Before the US stock market opens, the market is waiting for the Fed's important decision, with futures of the three major indices trading narrowly, and tech stocks showing mixed movements. International oil prices remain weak, with Brent crude and WTI crude both falling by about 1%

Awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision, pre-market stock index futures in the US are relatively stable, while international oil prices have dropped by 1%

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time, traders increased their bets on further easing. Bloomberg columnist Mohamed El-Erian pointed out that this rate cut is dovish, questioning the reasons behind it. Wall Street analysts have stated that the rate cut is a preventive measure against deteriorating labor market conditions, and inflation risks have eased. Some analysts believe this is just the beginning, and there may not necessarily be more 50 basis point rate cuts in the future. Overall, the market has a positive attitude towards the rate cut

Violent rate cuts + dovish rate cuts, gold price broke above 2600 but then gave back all gains, how does Wall Street view this?

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that the rate cut is mainly to stabilize the employment market. The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate and expects more accommodative policies by 2024. Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy adjustments aim to maintain a strong job market and moderate economic growth, with an inflation target of 2%. Despite differing views, there is broad consensus within the committee on the rate cut, with multiple cuts expected by the end of the year. Powell denied that the rate cut is influenced by political factors, emphasizing that the decision serves the economic interests of the American people

Powell emphasizes that the significant rate cut is to stabilize the job market, and the US economy remains strong

The release of the latest iPhone 16 by Apple has sparked discussions about pre-order demand. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the drop in stock price will attract buyers, while analysts at Barclays express concerns about the pre-order volume in the Chinese market, giving Apple's stock a "underweight" rating. Despite the possibility of demand falling short of expectations in the short term, analysts at Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about Apple's stock, believing that current demand data cannot accurately reflect future trends

Apple's iPhone 16 sparks demand discussion, Morgan Stanley: Any price drop will be bought on dips

According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 62.2%, while the probability of a 50 basis points cut is 37.8%. By December, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis points cut is 36.6%, a 75 basis points cut is 47.8%, and a 100 basis points cut is 15.6%

There is a 62.2% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November

Former US President Trump used Bitcoin to pay for his meal at a bar for the first time

At the New York closing on Wednesday (September 18th), Nasdaq futures fell by 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures fell by 0.12% and 0.10% respectively. Russell 2000 index futures rose by 0.21%. WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.16%, to $69.15 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.04%, to $72.93

NASDAQ futures fell 0.2% on the day of the Fed rate cut, while US crude oil fell more than 1.1%, breaking below the $70 mark

If the economy remains robust and inflation persists, the Federal Reserve will slow down rate cuts; however, if the labor market unexpectedly weakens, or if inflation declines faster than expected, they are also prepared to respond with aggressive rate cuts

The full text is here! Powell's press conference was quite hawkish, causing a major asset reversal. What did he say exactly? (Chinese-English comparison)

On Wednesday (September 18th), the yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond rose by 5.82 basis points to 3.7038%, marking the second consecutive trading day of rebound. Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut, the yield experienced a V-shaped reversal, with a trading range of 3.6325% to 3.7188% throughout the day. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond increased by 1.23 basis points to 3.6172%. The 2/10-year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 4.310 basis points to +8.034 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose by 5.43 basis points to 1.5912%

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than 5.8 basis points on the day the Federal Reserve cut interest rates

"The Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos' latest article states that the Federal Reserve voted today to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, marking the first rate cut since 2020 and a bolder start. Powell's decision to cut rates exceeded the expectations of most analysts a few days ago, firmly ushering the Federal Reserve into a new phase of fighting inflation: the Fed is currently trying to prevent previous rate hikes from further weakening the U.S. labor market. Powell stated at a press conference, "We are committed to maintaining our economic strength." "This decision reflects our growing confidence that by appropriately adjusting our policy stance, we can maintain the strong momentum in the labor market." While some Fed officials have argued in recent weeks that the economy is not weak enough to warrant a 50 basis point rate cut, others have concluded that the cooling of the labor market this summer provides a reason for further rate cuts, as the Fed is essentially making up for lost time

"The Fed's Echo Chamber": The Federal Reserve is actually making up for lost time

Former U.S. President Trump commented on Powell's 50 basis point rate cut: indicating that the U.S. economy is really bad, or they are playing politics

Fed's hawkish stance indicates that there is no indication in the summary of the Fed's economic forecast that it is eager to complete rate cuts. Data will drive monetary policy choices, and rate cuts will be accelerated, slowed down, or paused as needed. He mentioned that the downside risks to US employment are increasing and "worthy of attention," while the upside risks to inflation are receding and "encouraging," but the battle against inflation has not yet been won. The Fed does not have a preset policy path and will decide on actions at future meetings

Powell: The Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and it should not be assumed that a 50 basis point cut is a new rhythm

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years, with only one dissenting vote among the committee members against a 50 basis point cut. The dot plot shows that slightly more than half of the decision-makers expect at least a 25 basis point cut at each of the remaining two meetings this year. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that the magnitude of this cut exceeded the expectations of most analysts a few days ago, signaling the Fed's entry into a new phase of fighting inflation to prevent rate hikes from weakening the labor market

A 50 basis point sharp rate cut! The Federal Reserve hints at another 50 basis point cut later this year, firmly supporting employment

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, causing short-term surges in US stocks, US bonds, and gold, while the US dollar fell. Subsequently, major asset classes experienced significant volatility. Powell stated that no one should consider Wednesday's 50 basis point rate cut as a new trend. The main asset trends clearly reversed, with US stocks ultimately closing lower across the board, gold falling sharply from its daily high, and the US dollar narrowing its decline

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and gold surge in the short term, the U.S. dollar falls, and the trend reverses after a major shock

All three major US stock indexes fell, with Powell having concluded the press conference earlier

US Vice President Harris: Fed rate cut decision is good news

"New Bond King" Gundlach: The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points after the U.S. election (again) is increasing

"Bond King" Bill Gross: From the Federal Reserve's dot plot, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is below 3.75%

Bloomberg: The next interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve will come after the election day. The impact of the current Fed rate cut on the election is still unknown, but the rate cut decision has already sparked a common response from both parties in the United States and will continue to be a topic of discussion in the near future

The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00% at 02:00 Beijing time, the first time since March 2020. However, this decision was opposed by Federal Reserve Board Member Bauman, who advocated for only a 25 basis point cut. She is the first board member to vote against a Federal Reserve interest rate decision since 2005. Bauman holds a hawkish stance on monetary policy, advocating for a longer period of raising policy rates to curb inflation

Fed decision watershed: 50 basis point rate cut meets opposition votes

Powell: The economic situation in the United States is basically good

In addition to the decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, compared to the previous meeting statement in July, there are two major changes in the September FOMC meeting statement. Firstly, there is increased confidence in containing inflation, and secondly, the focus has shifted towards employment

Full comparison of changes in the September meeting statement of the Federal Reserve

Powell: Retail sales and GDP data indicate that the US economy is growing steadily

The US two-year Treasury yield rose to 3.6%, remaining relatively flat intraday, trading above 3.64% before the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut. Powell stated that the FOMC is not in a hurry

US Senator Warren: FOMC rate cut action means Fed Chairman Powell waited too long on easing

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at PineBridge Investments, commented on the Fed's rate cut, pointing out that despite investors' skepticism about the US economic outlook, the Fed's aggressive rate cut measures have given the market a reason to celebrate. These unprecedented measures are aimed at avoiding a hard landing for the US economy, significantly reducing the likelihood of an economic recession

Due to the strike causing Boeing unable to produce normally, cash flow is affected. Boeing has decided to let 10,000 white-collar employees "take temporary leave" and take a week off every four weeks. Not only that, earlier this week Boeing also took a series of cost-cutting measures, including suspending the recruitment and salary increases of new employees, and temporarily suspending non-essential outsourced personnel

Under the strike wave, Boeing's tens of thousands of white-collar employees face "forced holidays" due to financial difficulties

Fed Policy Action Review | Dean Baker, a researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, stated that the Fed acknowledges the softening job market and responds with aggressive rate cuts, seeing it as a positive development. With current inflation unlikely to reignite, a strong push in the job market comes at almost no cost, while also benefiting the housing market as millions of Americans have abandoned home-buying plans due to high mortgage rates. Under the policy action, the U.S. financial markets have little downside potential left

美联储政策行动点评 | 美国金融市场已无太多下行空间

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, the market was almost evenly split on the extent of the rate cut. Among the 113 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, only 9 correctly predicted that the Fed would cut rates by 50 basis points, including Bloomberg's Chief U.S. Economist, Anna Wong

The Federal Reserve has lowered its core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 to 2.6%, down from the June forecast of 2.8%. It is expected that core PCE inflation will be 2.2% in 2025, and 2.0% on average in both 2026 and 2027. Overall PCE inflation expectations have also been adjusted, with 2.3% for 2024, 2.1% for 2025, and 2.0% on average for both 2026 and 2027

The Federal Reserve lowers the US core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 to 2.6%

The Federal Reserve has lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2024 to 2.0%, down from 2.1% in June. It is expected that the GDP growth rates for 2025 and 2026 will both be 2.0%, while in 2027 it will also remain at 2.0%. In the long term, the expected GDP growth rate for the US is 1.8%

The Federal Reserve lowers its 2024 US GDP growth forecast to 2.0%

The Federal Reserve announced on September 19 that it would cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020. Despite slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, economic activity remains robust. The Committee is committed to maximizing employment and achieving a 2% inflation target in the long run, and will continue to monitor economic outlook and risks to adjust monetary policy in a timely manner. Supporters of the rate cut include Chairman Powell, while dissenters include Michelle W. Bowman

Full text of the Federal Reserve decision: Cut interest rates by 50 basis points, committed to maximizing employment support

The Federal Reserve raised its forecast for the US unemployment rate in 2024 to 4.4%, up from the June forecast of 4.0%. It is expected that the unemployment rates in 2025 and 2026 will be 4.4% and 4.3% respectively. The long-term unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%

The Federal Reserve raises the 2024 US unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates significantly by 50 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%. However, Bowman leans towards a 25 basis point rate cut

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations

Analysis suggests that the US stock market is reflecting a combination of US economic growth, increasing corporate profits, and declining interest rates, resembling a golden-haired girl. This means that from economic data to corporate financial reports to interest rates, everything must unfold perfectly for the US stock market to maintain its current level. Investors should be wary of the October earnings season triggering downward revisions in corporate profit expectations, potentially sparking market panic

Compared to the Fed rate cut, the upcoming earnings season is more important for US stocks, beware of October panic

Before the release of the Federal Reserve's statement, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq were basically flat, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down slightly by 0.1%, while the Philadelphia Bank Index rose by more than 0.1%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose by 3.4 basis points to 3.68%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose by 3.7 basis points to 3.64%. The spot gold price fell below $2570, and the ICE U.S. Dollar Index edged down by 0.06% to 100.830 points

Before the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in over four years, the major US stock indices fell, with market anxiety over the extent of the rate cut prevailing. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index, 8 sectors declined, while the healthcare sector rose slightly by 0.1%. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks small-cap stocks, also fell by 0.2%. Mixed economic indicators over the past month have left investors on edge before the Fed makes one of the most unpredictable decisions in years. However, according to CME observation tools, recent dovish comments from current and former Fed officials have led traders to believe that there is a 53% chance of a further 50 basis point rate cut. Erika Groshen, senior economic advisor at Cornell University, stated that if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points instead of 25, it would skip the rate cut next month. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, it will be quicker to raise rates next month

Market tension rises, US stocks under pressure

Analysts at Morgan Stanley stated in a recent report that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by either 25 basis points or 50 basis points this time will be very close. In our view, the dot plot will be the most important part of the Fed's guidance, along with Chairman Powell's press conference. It is expected that the Fed's forward guidance will be generally dovish

Morgan Stanley: Expects dovish guidance from the Federal Reserve

Billionaire Elon Musk supports Trump's campaign, but employees of his companies Tesla, SpaceX, and X mainly donated to Trump's opponent Harris. According to OpenSecrets data, Tesla employees donated $42,824 to Harris, SpaceX employees donated $34,526, and X company employees donated $13,213, while donations to Trump were $24,840, $7,652, and less than $500 respectively. This shows a political inclination inconsistent with Musk's personal stance

Employees of Elon Musk's Tesla, SpaceX, and X companies donated to Harris while he himself supports Trump

Economists at Bank of America responded to client concerns in a report, stating that the actions of the Federal Reserve are often milder than expected in history, avoiding hawkish surprises. "The Fed usually likes to fully announce any hawkish signals in advance to avoid exacerbating the financial environment. The Fed seems more willing to bring surprises in a mild direction." According to data from CME Group, the market currently expects a 55% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, while the probability of a more moderate 25 basis point cut is 45%. "Bank of America believes that the Fed is unlikely to implement a hawkish rate cut, which should provide support for long-term bonds and steepening of the yield curve."

Bank of America: The Fed seems to be more inclined to a dovish rather than hawkish surprise move

The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points, with different market reactions. YuXin Bank believes that a 25 basis point rate cut will lead to profit-taking in the Euro, but will not completely reverse. Danske Bank expects a moderate response, with the possibility of a stronger US dollar. ING warns that a 50 basis point rate cut will trigger panic. Goldman Sachs predicts that after a 25 basis point rate cut, gold will reach new highs. Overall, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy will impact the performance of major assets

FXStreet: How will the Fed's decision stir up major markets?

As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, the outcome appears to be more uncertain. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), in the past few hours, traders have been more evenly betting between a 50 basis point rate cut (currently with a probability of about 55%) and a 25 basis point rate cut (with a probability of 45%). Earlier on Wednesday, a 50 basis point rate cut was favored with a 2:1 probability advantage, but due to strong economic data, the more conservative option of a 25 basis point rate cut has gained more support. With the likelihood of a significant rate cut diminishing, U.S. bond yields are rising. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note is currently at 3.657%, up from 3.59% at Tuesday's close

The Fed rate decision is imminent, traders are betting on a balanced trend

Castle Securities has shelved its plan to become a primary dealer in U.S. Treasuries, believing that its position as a key market maker is sufficient. The company's executives had previously thought that joining this Wall Street club would help achieve its goal of becoming a dominant force in Treasury trading, but as the market has evolved, clients' focus on the primary dealer status has diminished. Castle Securities stated that clients are no longer as reliant on primary dealer status when seeking optimal liquidity

Reporting: Castle Securities shelves plan to become a primary dealer in US Treasuries

On Wednesday, Apple's stock price rose, with the stock up over 1.6% to $220.36 as of the time of writing. The overall U.S. stock market experienced a general decline, with the Nasdaq down 0.12%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Dow Jones down 0.15%. In terms of news, as Goldman Sachs decided to exit the consumer finance business, Apple needs to find a new bank to take over its credit card project with over 12 million users. Currently, Apple and JPMorgan Chase are still in negotiations. Due to Apple's credit card project involving high-risk customers, JPMorgan Chase hopes to take over at a favorable price. If JPMorgan Chase and Apple reach an agreement, this will further strengthen the cooperation between the largest bank in the United States and one of the world's largest technology companies

U.S. Stock Market News | Apple rose more than 1.6%, JPMorgan Chase is expected to take over its credit card project from Goldman Sachs

On Wednesday, US Steel's stock price rose by 3.8% at one point. As of the time of publication, the stock has risen by 2.53% to $37.155. On the news front, there has been a turning point in the acquisition case of US Steel, as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) responsible for reviewing this transaction has approved Japan's Nippon Steel's resubmission of the merger application. Nippon Steel announced in December last year that it would invest $14.9 billion to acquire US Steel. As customary, this transaction is subject to review by CFIUS. CFIUS is an inter-agency government group led by the US Department of the Treasury, primarily responsible for reviewing whether foreign investment transactions in the US pose national security risks

U.S. Stock Market News | U.S. regulatory agencies reportedly agree to Japan Steel's resubmission of acquisition application, causing U.S. Steel to rise by 3.8% temporarily

Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote in a recent article that the Fed's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut makes sense. The two goals of the Fed's dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment) have become more balanced, indicating that monetary policy should be neutral, neither inhibiting nor promoting economic activity. However, short-term interest rates are still far above the neutral level. This difference needs to be corrected as soon as possible. A 50 basis point rate cut would also align with the Fed's dot plot expectations. The market expects a total rate cut of at least 100 basis points by the end of 2024. If the Fed only cuts rates by 25 basis points now and expects a 50 basis point cut later this year, it would send a hawkish signal, raising market concerns about why a 50 basis point cut wasn't made from the start. A 50 basis point rate cut in September would help the Fed get out of this dilemma

Former New York Fed President Dudley: The Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points

US mortgage rates fell again last week, leading to a surge in refinancing demand. The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut this Wednesday. Although mortgage rates do not directly follow the Fed's actions, they are still influenced by policies. According to MBA data, total mortgage applications increased by 14.2% last week, with the average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping from 6.29% to 6.15%. Refinance applications surged by 24% compared to the previous week, indicating a strong market expectation for a rate cut

U.S. mortgage rates fall again, triggering a surge in refinancing demand

Former Cleveland Fed President Mester: There are ample reasons for a series of 25 basis point Fed rate cuts