China's central bank has kept its policy rate unchanged and drained cash from the banking system. The People's Bank of China left the rate on one-year medium-term lending facility loans unchanged at 2.50% and withdrew 70 billion yuan from the banking system. The central bank also injected 2 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos.

China c.bank keeps policy rate unchanged, drains cash from banking system

香港恒生指数开盘跌 1.4%，恒生科技指数跌 1.91%。

港股开盘，恒指跌 1.4%，科指跌 1.91%。友邦保险跌约 4%，周大福跌超 5%，蔚来汽车跌超 4%，小鹏汽车跌超 3%。

Bank of America issued a research report warning that Intel's low market share in chip manufacturing may lead to a decrease in the company's value, with the target price being lowered to $44. The bank believes that despite Intel's external design successes, it still relies entirely on its internal design team, which reduces the overall value of the company. Analysts point out that Intel faces challenges in accelerating profit growth potential towards advanced computing and shifting to other US foundries, as well as lagging behind competitors in the data center field

Dangerous signal! Bank of America warns: Intel's low market share in chip foundry may reduce company value, lowers target price to $44

美债买盘势力倾向观望，10 年期美债收益率或将冲击 5% 重要关口，打压股票等风险资产走势。掉期交易员预计美联储在 2024 年降息 25 个基点。美债市场出现空头头寸，财政部长期债券需求疲软。全球债券投资者在去年年末经历了连续 24 个月下跌后的正向债券价格回报。连续 3 个月超预期的通胀数据凸显美国经济的弹性和通胀粘性。利率期货市场对美联储政策转向宽松的预期升温。

美债买盘势力倾向观望，“全球资产定价之锚” 酝酿狂舞之势？

Today, spot gold opened significantly higher, while crude oil and US stock indices opened slightly higher. Andrew Ng has become a member of the Amazon board of directors. China will announce first-quarter GDP tomorrow. Citigroup stated that if production capacity cannot keep up with demand, Xiaomi may encounter growth issues similar to last year's XPeng G6. Chabaida is going public. Vanke stated that it is currently facing temporary operational difficulties and is not refusing to settle accounts. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated that a "Digital Policy Office" will be established in mid-year

Breakfast | Iran's large-scale attack on Israel stimulates risk aversion, Citigroup expects Xiaomi's car-making venture to lose 4.1 billion yuan

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan plans to establish a "Digital Policy Office" in the middle of this year to comprehensively formulate and implement policies to promote the development of the digital economy and smart cities. At the same time, he will review relevant legislation and guidelines to enhance data governance and establish clearer guidelines for data collection and processing. This move aims to adapt to the wave of technological change and promote high-quality economic development in Hong Kong. Paul Chan has also established the Committee on Digital Economy Development, which has submitted 12 core recommendations, some of which have already been reflected in earlier policy addresses and budget speeches

Edward Yau: To establish "Digital Policy Office" in mid-year to accelerate digital transformation

花旗预计小米集团 SU7 的交付量 4 月将达 5,000 至 6,000 部，全年交付量约 5.5 万至 7 万台。现时小米 SU7 的待交付时间长达 6 个月，如产能无法跟上需求，小米或会遇到与去年小鹏 G6 相似的增长问题。该行估计小米 2024 年每卖一部 SU7 平均亏损 6,800 元，整个造车业务合共亏损 41 亿元。

花旗：料小米每卖一辆车亏 6800，今年交付 7 万台

比特币接近抹去此前的短线跌幅，回升超 1700 美元，现报 64289 美元/枚。

Vanke responded to recent concerns at an investor relations meeting. The company stated that it is currently facing operational difficulties and liquidity pressure, but has formulated plans to stabilize operations and reduce debt. Vanke will reduce the scale of debt through self-rescue and financing tools, and promises to deliver all projects on time and with high quality. In addition, Vanke denied rumors of the management seeking personal gain, and stated that it will review and rectify past practices and models. The company also responded to the reported incident involving Yantai Vanke, stating that they were unable to reach an agreement with the cooperation partner in Yantai. In summary, Vanke will take proactive measures to address challenges and ensure the stable operation of its business in the face of difficulties

Vanke: There is no management seeking private interests, legal measures have been taken for economic disputes with related partners

The silver market is much smaller than the gold market, with silver futures trading volume being larger relative to physical supply, which may drive silver prices significantly higher. Recently, poor cocoa bean harvests have led to historically high cocoa futures prices, with some analysts predicting a similar large-scale increase in silver prices. The historical manipulation of silver prices by the Hunt brothers demonstrates that silver prices are heavily influenced by speculative activities and market sentiment. The similarity between the silver market and the cocoa market increases the likelihood of a sharp rise in silver prices

Historically squeezed multiple times, will silver be the next cocoa?

Tesla plans to launch a self-driving taxi (RoboTaxi) on August 8th, but analysts and experts are skeptical. They believe that Tesla will need several more years to achieve fully autonomous driving, and currently there is no evidence to prove the feasibility of its autonomous driving technology. Regulatory agencies have also stated that they have not received any applications from Tesla. This move is seen as a means to boost the stock price. As a result, investors are disappointed. Tesla faces many business challenges, and relying on RoboTaxi may not be able to solve the problems

On August 8th, the release of RoboTaxi? Experts: Impossible! Can Musk achieve it this time?

比特币一度跌至 60000 美元，现回升至 64800 上方，日内跌超 4%。

全球大宗商品价格上涨引发市场关注，其中黄金、油和铜是最受关注的三类商品。黄金价格不好择时，油价的爆发力与美国消费需求相关，铜价与全球制造业周期相关。大宗商品的定价光谱由商品属性、金融属性和金银特有的货币属性构成。

最关注的三大商品：黄金不好择时、油的爆发力、铜的故事性

Biosimilars have a significant market share in the United States, but the impact of drug pricing policies on pharmaceutical prices may gradually become apparent. Biosimilars in areas such as oncology, ophthalmology, and long-acting granulocyte colony-stimulating factor have a higher market share, while areas like immunology and short-acting granulocyte colony-stimulating factor have a lower market share. Remicade still holds a 96% market share, but its biosimilar penetration rate is relatively low. Overall, the outlook for the biosimilars market is promising

Xiumeile still holds a 96% market share, how much longer until the dream of price reduction for biosimilars? | Jianzhi Research

Bitcoin has experienced the largest drop in over a month in the past week, leading to the liquidation of speculative cryptocurrency positions. At the same time, bullish cryptocurrency bets worth about $780 million have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. Due to escalating geopolitical risks, investors are turning to safer assets such as bonds and the US dollar, causing risk assets like Bitcoin to be abandoned. Bitcoin has still risen by 60% this year, partly due to the upcoming halving event. However, investors are feeling nervous about the uncertainty before the halving. The implied volatility of Bitcoin options has increased, indicating a decrease in market participants' confidence in the price direction

Bitcoin fell more than 7% at one point, with $780 million in bullish cryptocurrency bets being liquidated

Over the past week, overseas markets have experienced severe volatility. The decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut and escalating tensions in the Middle East are the main reasons. The US dollar has reached a new high since 2022, while gold continues to rise and oil prices surge. US stocks saw the largest weekly decline since last year, with US bonds experiencing significant fluctuations. The strong US dollar is causing difficulties for non-US currencies, with the Japanese yen falling to its lowest level since 1990 and the euro dropping by 1.8%. Analysts warn that the continued strength of the US dollar may increase challenges for countries considering rate cuts. These changes are mainly influenced by factors such as inflation and geopolitical turmoil

In the past week, the overseas markets were in turmoil

英美对俄罗斯金属实施制裁，限制铜、铝、镍交易。美国禁止进口这三种金属，英国和全球主要金属交易所也不得使用俄罗斯生产的这些金属。制裁可能导致金属全球供应紧张，推动价格上涨。周五，COMEX 铜期货涨幅超过 0.8%，美国铝业和南方铜业公司股价也上涨。

英美对俄罗斯金属实施制裁，限制铜、铝、镍交易

The three major US stock indexes fell by more than 1%, with the Dow posting its largest weekly decline since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Among the "Seven Sisters" in the tech sector, only Apple saw gains, rising by over 4% for the week. JPMorgan Chase saw its largest drop in nearly four years. Chinese concept stocks fell by 4.6%, with XPeng dropping by nearly 10% and Nio by almost 8%. European stock indexes rebounded after two consecutive weeks of decline, with the oil and gas sector rising by 2.5% to a new high since 2008. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 10 basis points from its near five-month high on Thursday. The US dollar index hit a five-month high; the Japanese yen hit a new low for the third consecutive day since 1990; offshore renminbi fell by over 100 basis points to approach 7.27. Bitcoin briefly fell by over $6,000, dropping below $66,000. Crude oil rebounded but ended the week with an overall decline, with US oil rising by over 3% intraday to hit a new high in nearly six months, before giving back more than half of the gains. Gold hit intraday historical highs before turning lower, dropping by 4% from its peak. London copper rebounded to near two-year highs, with London tin rising by 12% for the week

US stocks fell more than 1%, the Dow plunged for two weeks, Morgan Stanley plummeted 6.5% after its financial report, Middle East risks intensified, crude oil and US bonds rebounded, and gold plunged 4% during the trading session

Shengfeng Development(SFWL) rose 6.51%, with a trading turnover 1.2 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 38.8%. Iczoom(IZM) rose 4.33%, with a trading turnover 107.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 331.9%. Hesai(HSAI) fell 12.57%, with a trading turnover 4.1 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 49.3%. XPeng(XPEV) fell 9.79%, with a trading turnover 126.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 48.9%.

Top 5 CDRs Gainers/Losers (>100M) (4.12)

Mobile-Health Network Solutions(MNDR) rose 47.06%, with a trading turnover 137.5 Million USD, and a year-to-date rose 275%. UL Solutions(ULS) rose 24.79%, with a trading turnover 507.1 Million USD, and a year-to-date . Globe Life(GL) rose 20.17%, with a trading turnover 1.5 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 51.3%.

Top 10 US Stock Gainers (4.12)

Apple(AAPL) rose 0.86%, with a trading turnover 17.9 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 8.2%. Progressive(PGR) rose 0.81%, with a trading turnover 1.1 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 28.8%. JPMorgan Chase(JPM) fell 6.47%, with a trading turnover 5.8 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 8.9%. Intel(INTC) fell 5.16%, with a trading turnover 2.9 Billion USD, and a year-to-date fell 28.8%.

Top 5 US Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (4.12)

XPeng(XPEV) fell 9.79%, with a trading turnover 126.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 48.9%. Array Tech(ARRY) fell 8.74%, with a trading turnover 79.8 Million USD, and a year-to-date fell 23%. Arista Networks(ANET) fell 8.48%, with a trading turnover 1.6 Billion USD, and a year-to-date rose 15.3%.

Top 10 US Stock Losers (4.12)

As Wall Street takes turns to be bullish, precious metals experience a sharp decline, giving back the intraday gains and turning into a significant drop. Intraday, spot gold fell by 1.5%, trading at $2337.5 per ounce, falling back from its high by about $100; spot silver fell by 1.65%, trading at $27.97 per ounce, with an intraday retracement of up to about 6%

As Wall Street takes turns to be bullish, precious metals experience a sharp decline, giving back the intraday gains and turning into a significant drop

比特币一度跳水跌至 65000 美元下方，现反弹拉升近 2000 美元至 66500 美元，日内跌超 5%。

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock released their financial reports on Friday. JPMorgan Chase's net interest income fell short of expectations, indicating that the benefits of high interest rates to banks may be diminishing. Citigroup's first-quarter FICC sales and trading revenue exceeded expectations, while BlackRock's net fund inflows fell short of expectations. On Friday, shares of major banks generally fell. JPMorgan Chase's full-year net interest income outlook is slightly below expectations, and it raised its full-year expense guidance, leading to a decline in stock price. JPMorgan Chase's first-quarter net interest income increased by 11% year-on-year, but the full-year net interest income outlook did not improve, and loans and expenses also fell short of market expectations

High interest rate benefits are dissipating, Wall Street big banks' net interest income "warning" JP Morgan plunges 6% | Financial Report Insights

比特币向下触及 69000 美元/枚，日内跌 2.12%。

The Japanese stock market is booming, attracting a large number of foreign investors. In order to meet customer demand, major Wall Street banks have increased their roadshow efforts, directly hiring Japanese analysts to interact with clients face-to-face and attract them to invest in the Japanese market. Companies like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have also taken similar measures. In addition, Bank of America held conference calls where Japanese analysts shared the best stock investment recommendations. With the recovery of the Japanese economy, the professions of analysts and traders in the financial industry are becoming more active

The Japanese stock market is on fire, and the financial sector is also heating up, with roadshows being held one after another

Commodities across the board surged, with significant gains in gold, copper, oil, and aluminum. Pre-market trading in US AI stocks declined. Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising, leading to a rise in European stocks. Non-dollar currencies are under pressure, with the Euro falling to a 5-month low

Commodities across the board are surging! Gold, copper, oil, and aluminum are all rising, while pre-market trading for AI stocks in the US is declining

黄金在短时间内快速涨破 2300 美元/盎司，可能是因为全球央行开始转向宽松政策和散户及亚洲投资者入场。要站上 2500 美元/盎司，关键在于韧性的美国通胀和大宗商品牛市的出现。此外，中长期黄金分析需要考虑疫情后逆全球化和高通胀的宏观环境变化，以及信用货币体系受到挑战的叙事。黄金可能对通胀和大宗商品更加敏感。

黄金：站上 2500，需要怎样的 “宏观叙事”？

Banking stocks released their rankings, kicking off a new round of earnings season: BlackRock's performance exceeded expectations, with assets under management reaching $10.47 trillion, expected to be $10.43 trillion; Citigroup's Q1 revenue was $21.1 billion, expected to be $20.38 billion

WSB Hot Discussion | Nvidia rebounds for two days, Goldman Sachs: Expected Q1 earnings per share to increase fourfold

The company's revenue in 2023 was $2.678 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of only 6.9% over the past 13 years

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund also interested? ULS to go public tonight with a valuation of $5.6 billion

Huali Group released its 2023 annual report, with both revenue and net profit declining year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in performance. The company's cooperative clients include Nike, but due to factors such as inflation, sales performance has been poor. However, sales have shown improvement in the fourth quarter, with major client inventories gradually returning to normal levels, indicating that destocking may be nearing its end. Nevertheless, Nike's declining performance suggests that the industry's destocking inflection point may still require more time

Financial Report 2024 | Clearing inventory cycle faces tax rate pressure, Huali Group experiences a double decline in performance for the first time since its IPO

1968 Major Events: Buffett tried to sell the troublesome Berkshire, but failed; Intel Corporation was founded; Nixon won the presidential election; Apollo 8 entered lunar orbit, and humans saw the far side of the moon for the first time; the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was officially opened for signature

Warren Buffett's 1968 "Letter to Shareholders": Everyone makes mistakes at some point

BlackRock announced its first-quarter performance in 2024, with a 37% increase in profit and an 11% year-on-year growth in total revenue. The asset management scale reached a record high of $10.47 trillion, a 15% year-on-year increase. BlackRock's diversified asset management products continue to attract investors. Although net inflows were lower than expected, the company remains optimistic about future growth. In addition, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF attracted $14 billion in investments

BlackRock Q1 revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, with AUM growing by 15% year-on-year to reach a historical high

Intel has released a combination of hardware and software products including the AI chip Gaudi 3, the all-new brand Xeon 6 processor, and announced the upcoming launch of the next-generation Core Ultra processor family codenamed "LunarLake" this year. Intel aims to target NVIDIA with this move and compete for AI users with them. On the day of the launch event, NVIDIA's stock price fell by nearly 5%, while Intel's rose by 0.92%. Intel CEO Gelsinger is also quite satisfied with Gaudi 3, as the chip has significantly improved performance in training and inference, with higher energy efficiency. Intel also announced the upcoming release of Xeon 6 processors equipped with energy-efficient cores, as well as processors with higher AI performance. This launch event demonstrates Intel's competitive strength in the field of AI

Intel's surprise attack on Nvidia

市场消息：香港有望批准现货比特币和以太坊 ETF。

Google and Amazon did not use AMD's AI chips, instead opting for Nvidia and in-house chips. However, despite the lack of collaboration with these two tech giants, AMD still expects AI chip sales to reach a new high, exceeding $3.5 billion. In addition to partnerships with Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta, AMD also plans to install the latest GPUs in data centers

Google, Amazon, neither use AMD!

AMD and Intel fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading, while Tesla dropped over 1%; XPeng fell over 4%, Alibaba, JD.com, Li Auto, NetEase, and Baidu all fell over 2%; Chinese concept stocks, Shangchao Shu One, surged 35% at one point, while insurance company GLOBE LIFE surged 18%; yesterday, it plunged more than 53%

Pre-market trading in US stocks | XPeng, Alibaba lead the decline in Chinese concept stocks, AMD, Intel lead the decline in technology stocks!

建行、中行、农行公告汇金增持进度，汇金公司增持了三家银行的股份，持股比例分别为中行 64.13%、建行 57.14%、农行 40.14%。增持行动发生在去年四季度，汇金公司表示将继续支持三家银行的稳健发展。

建行、中行、农行公告汇金增持进度：去年四季度扫货合计超 8 亿股

英国资产管理公司 Ruffer LLP 近期采取了历史上最大规模的持现金策略，以应对市场可能出现的剧烈反转。该公司将三分之二的资金配置为现金，并购买信用违约互换和美国股票期权等保险政策，以防范可能的大幅下跌。他们对市场波动持悲观态度，特别是对美国利率削减的过度乐观和流动性风险的担忧。Ruffer 希望通过资本保护实现回报，避免重复类似 1987 年的股市崩盘。

防范 1987 年式崩盘 英国资管公司 Ruffer 疯狂配置现金

UBS sets Tencent's target price at HKD 428, expecting Tencent's domestic game performance in the first quarter to be weak, with a 5% year-on-year decline, but advertising revenue in the first quarter is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year, relative to the market's expectation of a 19% increase. CICC predicts that Alibaba's fourth-quarter e-commerce GMV will increase by 6% year-on-year, and continuous observation is still needed on the sustainability of e-commerce GMV/CMR positive growth, with the target price raised to USD 111/HKD 107

Rating Quick Look | Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meta Target Prices Raised! Tencent, Kuaishou Receive Positive Outlook

XIAOMI-W(01810) rose 2.61%, with a trading turnover 3.4 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date rose 5.8%. NEW ORIENTAL-S(09901) rose 2.39%, with a trading turnover 175.0 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 27.8%. AIA(01299) fell 5.81%, with a trading turnover 4.2 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 28.6%. PING AN(02318) fell 5.69%, with a trading turnover 2.4 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date fell 13.3%.

Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (4.12)

ZX INC(09890) fell 13.82%, with a trading turnover 72.8 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 48.4%. LONGFOR GROUP(00960) fell 8.64%, with a trading turnover 312.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 24.7%. ZA ONLINE(06060) fell 8.6%, with a trading turnover 110.9 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 29.7%.

Top 10 HK Stock Losers (4.12)

FIH(02038) rose 14.86%, with a trading turnover 48.4 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 39.3%. WANGUO MINING(03939) rose 13.29%, with a trading turnover 37.4 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 147.8%. LINGBAO GOLD(03330) rose 11.6%, with a trading turnover 79.6 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 152.5%.

Top 10 HK Stock Gainers (4.12)

Overnight hottest contracts: Tesla calls with expiration dates of April 12th, with strike prices of $175 and $172.5, traded over 210,000 and 200,000 contracts respectively. Tesla puts with a strike price of $170 traded over 170,000 contracts. Rivian options trading surged to 300,000 contracts, with 57% being call options. Nikola options trading surged to 200,000 contracts, with 51% being put options

US Stock Options | Tesla, Nvidia Soar in Trading Volume, Apple Nearly Doubles in Trading Volume!

国务院印发了《关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》，明确了我国资本市场的发展目标和路线图。其中，重点关注的九大看点包括资本市场高质量发展的 “五个必须”，发行上市制度的升级，制定上市公司市值管理指引等。这些政策将对资本市场产生积极影响。

资本市场 “国九条” 时隔十年再升级，九大看点值得关注

JP Morgan pointed out that, from the perspective of the 5G upgrade cycle, the valuation reevaluation began one year before the release of 5G products (iPhone 12 in 2020). By analogy, the AI upgrade cycle will start from iPhone 17 (expected to be released in September 2025), and the valuation reevaluation will come in 2024. JP Morgan slightly adjusted Apple's year-end target price from $215 to $210, with a 20% upside potential from the current stock price, giving Apple stock an overweight rating

Reassessing Apple's "AI Potential" - Comparing the AI Phone Upgrade Trend to the 5G Boom

Silver has outperformed gold this year, hitting a three-year high and is expected to break through $30. As a substitute for gold, silver is favored by investors, and tight supply and demand have also supported the rise in silver prices. Investors are surprised by the trend of gold and silver prices, expecting no significant pullback and a possible continuation of the uptrend

20%! Silver has outperformed gold in terms of price increase this year

富智康集团今日再度上涨近 18%！为何？供应链分析师透露，苹果计划于今年晚些时候发布价格更低的 AirPods 耳机，而新款低价 AirPods 将由富士康子公司制造。