近日，摩根资产管理发布了《2024 年长期资本市场假设》，为投资者提供各种资产类别未来 10 至 15 年的风险回报展望。这是摩根资产全球最知名的展望报告之一。上述报告指出，鉴于宏观环境不断变化，重新审视分散投资和投资组合构建的假设： 60/40（美元）股债组合在未来 10 至 15 年的预测年回报率仍具有不俗的吸引力，同时投资者可通过其他方法提升潜在回报。

摩根资管发布 2024 长期资本假设，另类资产可提升长期回报率，中国股票仍具有一定的吸引力

即将到来的 2024 年，美国很可能完成从加息到降息周期的转折，投资者紧盯着下面 8 个美联储公布利率决议的日子，要知道，2024 年的任何一场议息会议都可能 “震撼市场”！• 1 月 31 日 • 3 月 20 日 • 5 月 1 日 • 6 月 12 日 • 7 月 31 日 • 9 月 1 日 • 11 月 7 日 • 12 月 18 日 而最受重视的时间点当属——5 月 1 日（北京时间 5 月 2 日）这一天。最近公布的美联储联，美联储官员们又一次集体认为，当前的经济状况更适合将利率在一段时间内保持高位，重申将谨慎行事，且没有流露结束加息周期的意愿。

所有人都在猜：明年哪个时点，美联储降息？

The recent wave of sell-offs in the US stock and bond markets lasted until late October, but has seen a strong rebound in the past two weeks. According to analysts at J.P. Morgan, this trend is essentially technical in nature and driven by momentum strategies and short covering. In their report released last week, the J.P. Morgan analyst team, led by Marko Kolanovic, stated that the risk-return profile of stocks remains unattractive. Given the uncertain economic outlook for next year, they are maintaining a defensive stance on the stock market. They believe that restrictive monetary policies may persist for some time, stock valuations are high, and with the weakening of liquidity buffers and a series of high interest rates, consumers may begin to tighten their spending. This could lead to a tightening of consumer loan products, loan standards, and an increase in delinquency rates.

Morgan Stanley discusses recent "asset allocation": shifting from government bonds to commodities, stocks still lack cost-effectiveness.

On November 23rd, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed on the social media platform X that Tesla's electric pickup truck is on its way to Tesla stores in North America (Figure 1). Previously, Tesla revealed that one million people have pre-ordered the Tesla, with a target of producing 200,000 vehicles per year. According to media reports, Guo Mingchi, a well-known analyst at Tianfeng Securities, stated on October 10th that Tesla's estimated shipments this year are 100-200 units, reaching 100,000-120,000 units next year, and 240,000-260,000 units by 2025.

Musk: Cybertruck electric pickup is being shipped to Tesla stores in North America.

Every new force in the car manufacturing industry has its unique brand label. For example, XPENG-W is known for its "high-end intelligent driving configuration," Ideal for its "extended range and large volume," ZERO and NIO for their "high cost-performance ratio," WENJIE for being "far ahead," and NIO-SW for its "excellent customer experience and unique battery swapping service." NIO-SW has made great efforts to establish and consolidate this brand label. However, due to the fact that battery swapping models are not mainstream in the market, NIO-SW faces significant challenges in promoting the popularity of the battery swapping model on its own. The continuous high expenditure has also raised doubts in the market. However, NIO-SW's battery swapping business is now at a turning point.

NIO's battery swapping finally pays off | Insights from Dolphin Research

四大信号：股指的主要贡献者是 AI、 AI 热潮似有拐点、纳指与其领先指标背离、前 10 大企业市值的占比过高，正在给美股发出明确预警！

技术分析 | 美股为什么危险了？

核心观点 2023 年 11 月 6 日，财政部继 2022 年 5 月和 7 月之后再次发布隐债问责案例。可见在隐性债务 “化存量” 的背景下，中央也保持着 “遏新增” 的态度，严肃查处新增隐性债务和隐性债务化解不实等违法违规行为。此轮隐债问责和 2022 年两轮有何不同，以及在当下特殊再融资债密集落地、融资平台化债加速的背景下有何特殊之处，值得进一步探讨。

中信证券：从 “化存量” 到 “遏新增”

Zhitong App has learned that Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets said on Wednesday that the concentration of the top 10 companies with the largest market capitalization in the S&P 500 index continues to reach new highs. However, the company does not believe that this provides a clear signal for the future. Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets explained that "the concentration is related to past periods of market pressure, but the signal is not clear."

US stocks "top-heavy" means market under pressure? Investment banks: Not necessarily!

Adobe is continuously expanding its generative AI capabilities. According to reports, Adobe has acquired Rephrase.ai, a generative AI startup that specializes in using AI technology to convert text into virtual image videos.

Breaking into the video field? Adobe acquires "AI Video" company

马斯克发布微博表示，所有初代 @特斯拉 Roadster 的原始设计和工程现在完全开源。我们拥有的一切，现在你也拥有。

马斯克：所有初代特斯拉 Roadster 的原始设计和工程现在完全开源

腾讯的 2023 年第三季度财报显示，营收和净利润同比增长，得益于增值服务业务、网络广告业务和金融科技及企业服务业务的快速增长。腾讯还积极布局 AI 大模型相关业务，预计未来业绩将持续攀升。此外，高盛发布研报维持腾讯 “买入” 评级，认为腾讯股价还有上涨空间。腾讯的业绩表现受到资本市场的积极反馈。

腾讯三季度财报解读：AI 大模型成下个十年的新支点？

港股地产股持续走高，旭辉控股一度涨近 30%，碧桂园涨近 13%，中国奥园涨超 12%，富力地产、雅居乐涨约 9%。

根据微软全球消息显示，微软 Copilot 具有商业数据保护功能的 Web AI 聊天功能将于今年 12 月 1 日正式上线，前期有 160 余个区域可使用。微软官方产品操作页面显示，虽然该服务可支持简体中文，但中国大陆地区用户尚不能尝鲜。

微软 Copilot Web AI 将于 12 月 1 日正式上线，支持简体中文

金十数据 11 月 23 日讯，摩根大通发表报告指，百度股价在过去一个月，与互联网同业的表现一致，但该行认为公司短期有上升潜力，因为生成式人工智能商业化进程较预期快，估计生成式人工智能明年可以带来超过 90 亿元人民币收入，而相关因素未有完全在股价反映。另外，百度的核心广告及云业务增长加快，亦支持股价表现。现价反映明年预测市盈率 11 倍，相信属低估，该行维持百度「增持」评级，上调对其目标价，由 180 港元升至 210 港元，反映明年预测市盈率 15 倍。

摩根大通：百度估值被低估 升目标价至 210 港元及评级 “增持”

In the coming week, the analysis of Black Friday sales and foot traffic trends, as well as the inevitable skirmishes at Walmart, will all be key indicators for evaluating consumer strength and overall economic indicators.

What can investors look forward to as Black Friday approaches?

港股恒指低开跌 0.31％，国企指数涨 0.01％，恒生科技指数开涨 0.21%。

The lack of improvement in the proportion of domestic direct sales, the further weakening of the presence of self-developed IP, and the slower-than-expected expansion of overseas stores... all cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future growth path of this small commodity empire.

Miniso delivers its strongest performance in history, why did the stock price drop more than 10%? | Insight Research

Large-scale fund managers believe that the recent boost in the US stock market and bond market is more like a year-end rebound rather than a turning point.

Fund Manager: The rebound in US stocks may be temporary. Multiple factors next year will put pressure on the market.

当地时间 11 月 22 日，Meta Platforms 在美国证券交易委员会提交的文件显示，首席产品官 Christopher K Cox 于 11 月 20 日出售 1 万股公司股份，共计约 340 万美元；首席法务官 Newstead Jennifer 于 11 月 21 日出售 566 股公司股份，共计约 19 万美元。

Meta 首席产品官、首席法务官分别减持公司股份

知情人士称，Origin Energy Ltd.正在考虑推迟股东对其收到的 190 亿澳元收购要约的投票。博枫和 EIG Global Energy Partners 向 Origin 发出这份收购要约。其中一位知情人士称，澳大利亚最大能源供应商 Origin 的董事会正在讨论是否推迟股东投票，以评估该财团提出的替代性提议。投票定于悉尼时间周四下午 2 点举行。澳大利亚证券交易所在周四的声明中表示，Origin 股票将暂停交易，等待刊发公告。

澳大利亚能源供应商 Origin 据悉考虑推迟对 125 亿美元收购要约的投票

根据高盛集团最新的对冲基金趋势报告，截至 10 月 31 日，特斯拉仍然是最受欢迎的空头头寸，尽管该股今年迄今上涨了逾 90%。高盛跟踪的对冲基金持有价值近 190 亿美元的特斯拉空头头寸。特斯拉股价近期波动较大，短期押注特斯拉股票仍然受欢迎。特斯拉的看跌期权和看涨期权是 Cboe Global Markets 交易平台上交易量最大的产品之一。尽管做空特斯拉可能会带来短期收益，但对许多知名华尔街投资者来说，长期做空特斯拉股票令人担忧。

高盛称特斯拉仍是对冲基金做空最多股票，空仓规模近 190 亿美元

Meta Platforms 首席产品官 Christopher K Cox 出售 1 万股公司股份，总计 340 万美元。

天风国际证券分析师郭明錤：历史再度重演。Nvidia（英伟达）财报结果与财测击败的是「卖方」的预期，但顶多刚好符合「买方」的预期。故当媒体大幅报导 Nvidia 的财报结果与财测击败市场预期时，Nvidia 与供应链的股价却没有太好的反应。

郭明錤：英伟达财报结果与财测击败卖方预期

Berkshire Hathaway issued yen bonds again, sparking speculation in the market about Buffett's optimism towards the Japanese market. The Nikkei 225 index reached its highest level since 1990 this week.

Japanese stocks hit a new high again, all thanks to Buffett.

2024 年市场信心将重聚，建议坚持 “三阶段配置策略”

中信证券秦培景：三阶段配置刚进入第二阶段，科技和医药板块超额收益显著

On November 20th, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a conference to promote the exchange and advancement of technology in the financial sector.

The People's Bank of China and three other departments: Hurry up to formulate implementation measures to increase support for financing of technology-based enterprises.

金十数据 11 月 22 日讯，11 月 22 日，中植企业集团有限公司向投资者发出一封《致歉信》，信中披露，中植集团出现后聘请中介机构进行了全面清产核资，初步尽调发现，按照中介机构模拟合并口径测算集团总资产账面金额约 2000 亿元，同时债务规模巨大，剔除保证金后相关负债本息规模约为 4200-4600 亿元。

中植披露资不抵债逾 2000 亿元

市场消息：TikTok 考虑投资印尼最大科技公司 GoTo 的子公司。

According to JPMorgan Chase, based on the intensity of capital inflows, the rebound in US stocks is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the risks of rising US bond yields and increased volatility.

Can the US stock market continue to rise? JPMorgan: Yes, it can.

11 月 9 日，法院就特斯拉诉 “上海车展事件” 一名车主名誉侵权案作出一审判决，认定这名车主名誉侵权责任成立，须向特斯拉公开赔礼道歉并赔偿 2000 元，同时承担 2 万元车辆鉴定费。11 月 22 日，特斯拉中国方面确认上述信息。

参与 “车顶维权” 车主被判道歉 向特斯拉赔偿 2000 元

The most powerful car company this year

金十数据 11 月 22 日讯，据路透社旗下媒体 IFR 报道，知情人士表示，宁德时代正考虑在香港上市。其中两位知情人士称，宁德时代已就上市事宜与财务顾问进行了内部和外部讨论，最早可能于明年上市。现在谈论融资规模还为时过早，但其此前考虑的 GDR 目标发行规模可被视为一个参考。宁德时代目前尚未对此做出回应。

路透旗下媒体 IFR：宁德时代考虑在香港上市

On November 23rd (Thursday), the US stock market will be closed for Thanksgiving Day. On November 24th (Friday), the stock market will close 3 hours early for the day after Thanksgiving, which means it will close at 2:00 AM Beijing time the next day.

Trading Alert: US stock market will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will close 3 hours early on Friday.

OpenAI 创始人 Sam Altman 在 X 上发了一个心形表情符号，之前 OpenAI 宣布他将回归公司。同时，OpenAI 联合创始人兼前总裁 Greg Brockman 回应声明称，今天取得了惊人的进展，我们将比以往任何时候都更强大和团结。

OPEN AI：SAM ALTMAN 将回到 OPEN AI 担任首席执行官。

财务出身的许冉将统管京东集团和零售核心业务，她面临的是一个更为复杂的局面——如何将刘强东的战略贯彻下去，使得京东主营业务重回增长轨道。

刘强东换帅真相：许冉把战略执行到底

蔚来可能正在经历自成立以来最大的危机，与 2019 年的资金问题不同，眼下的问题更加复杂且顽固，考验李斌能否再次力挽狂澜的时候到了。

换电接客，蔚来过冬

Proceed with caution when investing in US dollar bonds.

Hong Hao: Now the safety cushion is very high, only optimistic people can make money.

11 月 22 日，阿里巴巴合伙人、首席人才官蒋芳在阿里内网发文，详细阐述了此次马云办公室减持的前因后果。蒋芳称，为了在国内外投资农业科技和给公益事业等项目获取资金，马云办公室今年 8 月就与股票经纪商签了减持合同。由于当时设定的售卖价格远高于目前股价，只要股价未达到设定售卖价格，就不会售出股票，因此实际上马云所持股票一股未卖。蒋芳还通过内网向阿里员工转达，马云坚定看好阿里，“阿里股票目前大大低于阿里巴巴的实际价值，他不会卖的”。

阿里内部发文：目前马云一股未卖，未来也会长期持有阿里股票

蔚来 CEO 李斌 11 月 20 日下午发表部讲话，并回答了员工提问。李斌表示，将来几年的竞争，强度只会增加不会下降，必须做好心理准备。很多幻想要放弃，比如我们原来一直觉得高端车，电车卖的应该比油车可能贵一点。但现在高端车油电是倒挂的，像奔驰 EQE 降了十几万，这是非常可怕的事情。将来的两三年里面，这很可能会成为一个常态，大家都想要销量，那很多人就会把降价当成最重要的手段，这件事情一定会发生。

蔚来 CEO 李斌：将来几年的竞争，强度只会增加不会下降，必须做好心理准备

2023 年 11 月 22 日，成都都江堰市公安局发布警方通报： 我局经侦查查明，陈某杰（男，39 岁）涉嫌开设赌场罪。目前，陈某杰已被依法执行逮捕。案件正在进一步侦办中。

警方通报斗鱼 CEO 被捕：陈某杰涉嫌开设赌场罪被执行逮捕

Dolphin Research announced that its CEO, Chen Shaojie, was arrested by the Chengdu police around November 16th this year. It is reported that Chen Shaojie has been continuously detained and any legal proceedings and law enforcement actions against relevant parties may have a significant adverse impact on the company's reputation, business, and performance. According to industry rumors, this incident may be related to the "Changsha Rural Daredevil Team" in the Dolphin Research live broadcast room.

Douyu CEO Chen Shaojie has been arrested, reportedly related to the live streaming channel "Changsha Rural Brave Team".

黄仁勋说，英伟达增长如此之快的原因之一是，经过 60 年的发展，通用计算正在衰退，因为再投资 2500 亿美元创建另一个通用计算数据中心是不明智的，它在能源上过于粗暴，在计算上太慢。

黄仁勋：AI 不会夺走你的工作，但使用 AI 的人会！无论个人还是企业，一切都是选择！

Why did Tesla give up on lowering prices to maintain sales volume?

Tesla raises prices four times in a row, even the price butcher can't stop it | Insight Research

路透纽约 11 月 21 日 - Nvidia(辉达/英伟达) 可以不担心中国市场的问题，而苹果却做不到。作为一家市值 1.2 万亿美元的芯片制造商，Nvidia 周二发布的季度财报带给我们启示。180 亿美元的营收是去年同期的三倍，更重要的是，公司预测当前季度营收将增至 200 亿美元。产品供不应求，中国买家几乎没有其他选择，美国近期的出口限制措施虽然造成一定打击，但 Nvidia 爆火的势头似乎不可阻挡。

《热点透视》Nvidia 赶上人工智能风口，暂时不用担心对华出口限制

The bullish sentiment on Wall Street is growing stronger.

Join the bullish camp on US stocks! Bank of America predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach a new high of 5000 points next year.

OpenAI：API 和 ChatGPT 故障已解决。

马斯克：AI 模型 Grok 会在下周对所有 X Premium+ 订阅者开放。

截至发稿，融创中国涨 5.75%。根据日前公告，该公司境外债务重组各项条件已获满足。该公司表示，伴随着境内外公开市场债务重组全部完成，融创整体化解约 900 亿元人民币的债务风险，境外公开市场 2-3 年内无刚性还债压力。

融创中国高开近 6% 日前宣布境外债务重组正式生效

港股开盘，恒生指数开涨 0.01%，恒生科技指数开跌 0.06%；携程集团开跌超 6%。