Goldman Sachs pointed out that historically, during the period when inflation falls from a high level, the stock market usually experiences the best returns. The European and American stock markets are expected to break through the wide range of fluctuations and enter an "optimistic" phase, ushering in a general upward trend. Analysts have raised the year-end target price for the S&P 500 index in 2024 to 5,100 points.

Goldman Sachs: What is the logic behind the "breakthrough at high levels" in the European and American stock markets next year?

腾讯与网易在派对游戏领域展开了竞争。腾讯推出了手游《元梦之星》并进行了大规模营销推广，希望打造下一代国民游戏。腾讯在游戏宣发上投入巨大，并与腾讯系产品进行联动。此举显示出腾讯想超越网易的决心。《元梦之星》强调 “正版” 并获得了《糖豆人》的正版授权。该游戏被认为是腾讯在爆款游戏上的重要尝试。

两大巨头的 “派对” 战争

阿里巴巴出现人事变动，或难支持股价显著反弹。大摩估計，相關非核心資產，包括股票、其他投資及投資項目等約值 670 億美元，其中，上市公司中通快遞及小鵬汽車持股價值分別逾 10 億美元。

大摩：阿里非核心資產約值 670 億美元

港股午後轉升，恒指半日跌 40 點或 0.2%，報 16573，午後止跌回升。恒指最新造 16626，升 13 點或 0.1%。科技股指數造 3712，升 0.4%。大市成交 427.16 億元。藍籌滙控升 0.1%；港交所升 0.3%；平保無升跌；建行持平；友邦跌 1.4%。電動車股普跌，小鵬傳 G3 產品線停更新，現跌 2.7%；理想汽車挫 4%；蔚來插 8.3%；零跑汽車降 1.2%；但比亞迪升 0.6%。

港股午後轉升 電動車股普跌

亚洲股市在美国股市下跌的影响下出现下跌，投资者对美联储降息前景的乐观情绪减弱。日本股市表现不佳，丰田汽车因安全丑闻和召回事件而下挫。标普 500 指数期货小幅上涨，纳斯达克指数上涨。美元走弱，10 年期美国国债收益率上升。比特币和以太币上涨，大宗商品中 WTI 原油下跌，现货金上涨。

亚市午盘：日本股市领跌亚股 标普 500 指数期货反弹

拜登政府正在討論提高對中國電動車等部分商品的關稅，目前對中國電動車徵收的關稅為 25%。此舉旨在阻止中國汽車製造商進軍美國市場。消息稱，其他可能被提高關稅的商品還包括太陽能產品和電動車電池。白宮和其他機構的官員正在討論相關關稅，希望在明年初完成評估。拜登政府也在考慮降低一些中國產消費品的關稅。目前尚未就對華關稅問題做出決定。

拜登政府傳商討提高中國電動車等關稅

在美联储试图降低高通胀的时期，美联储暂停行动和经济衰退之间的时间间隔往往会缩短，有时甚至会重叠。巴克莱警告称，如果今天的情况是这样，可能会给股市带来麻烦。

理解市场 | 为什么美联储 “转鸽” 不再是买入信号？

金十数据 12 月 21 日讯，该行预期，随着新车型的不断推出和潜在的更优惠定价，电动车的渗透率将在明年进一步提高。同时，鉴于锂价格调整，电动车电池成本将进一步优化，可能部分缓解电动车定价竞争问题。在电动车中，该行看好比亚迪和理想汽车，认为他们的月销量持续强劲，盈利能力胜同业，均予以买入评级，目标价分别为 391 港元及 56 美元。另预期他们强劲的销量势头将于 12 月持续，部分原因是基于降价。该行预计理想的新款 MPV 纯电动车型 MEGA 将带来增量销量，而比亚迪的高端品牌 (仰望 U8 和方程豹 BAO5) 将在明年增加销量，支持其整体产品结构。

汇丰研究：内地新能源车定价压力可能会持续 偏好比亚迪及理想汽车

The recent surge in the cryptocurrency market is mainly driven by Meme tokens and new types of NFTs, leading to a sharp rise in altcoins. Dogecoin has become the hottest token in the past two years, with many tokens experiencing gains of over 1000%, although their trading prices remain relatively low. In addition, the value of tokens on trading platforms such as Solana and Avalanche has also skyrocketed, with Bitcoin reaching its highest level in over a week. The CEO of cryptocurrency investment firm Satori Research stated that the altcoin season is back, similar to the first quarter of 2021. Bitcoin is expected to be influenced by the approval of spot ETFs and the recovery of FTX's debt claim prices. The debt claim prices of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX Group have also increased to some extent.

Cryptocurrencies are going crazy again! Dogecoin leads the surge of altcoins, and Bitcoin briefly surpasses $44,000.

华尔街最大空头坚持认为，2024 年对美股来说将不是一个好年份！考虑到美联储似乎不太可能迅速降息，而且美股估值高、信贷息差窄、波动性 “异常低” ，“现在不是大举买入股票的时候”。

理解市场 | 明年美股为何可能继续跌？

在最近的一场 “AI Everywhere” 发布会上，Intel 的 CEO Pat Gelsinger 批评了 Nvidia 的 CUDA 生态系统，并表示整个行业都希望能够挑战 CUDA。尽管 CUDA 为人工智能算法的训练和部署提供了便利，但行业对其过度依赖产生了警惕性。一些公司如 Google 和 OpenAI 正在研发自己的解决方案。本文将深入分析 CUDA 的强势来源以及谁能够打破其垄断。

谁能挑战英伟达 CUDA？

Goldman Sachs said that the US dollar is overvalued by about 14-15% based on the real trade-weighted basis. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times next year, leading to a decline of around 3% in the US dollar index.

Goldman Sachs: The US dollar is overvalued by about 14%-15%.

恒指开盘跌 0.96%，恒生科技指数跌 1.27%。

亚洲股市在隔夜美股下跌的影响下出现下跌。标普 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数下跌，澳大利亚、日本和韩国股市也出现下跌。油价下跌，金价趋于稳定。美元和欧元基本持平，离岸人民币基本持平。比特币和以太币上涨。大宗商品方面，WTI 原油下跌，现货金上涨。整体来看，亚洲股市下跌，大宗商品价格出现波动。

亚市早盘：亚洲股市下跌 追随隔夜美国股市跌势

The US stock market is approaching historical highs, but it is facing significant selling pressure. Disappointing earnings reports from FedEx and General Mills have dampened the optimism for a "resilient" consumer cyclical rebound. Some investors have been buying a large number of put options on the S&P 500 index, which may exacerbate the market sell-off.

Understanding the Market | Suddenly Crashed! What Happened to the Overnight US Stock Market?

For the first time in decades! In Japan, you can finally earn interest on your savings.

A Landmark Event! After a decade of "zero interest rates on deposits," the Japanese banking industry has started raising interest rates.

OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 新增了聊天存档功能，用户可以保存聊天记录并进行精细化管理。这个功能对于科研、医疗、写作、金融、律师等行业非常有帮助，用户可以构建自己的文本资料数据库。聊天存档功能可以保证数据的准确性，方便用户回顾聊天记录和与他人共享。

ChatGPT 新增聊天存档功能，可构建自己的聊天数据库啦！

2024 年货币政策的三个 “锚”：汇率约束、银行成本、通胀水平。预计明年货币政策将逐步趋稳，注重资金直达实体，工具进退可控。降息方面，可能小于 MLF；降准方面，存在调降空间，但或难成为临时补充流动性的最优选择；信贷投放将注重质量和定向性。关注汇率升值超调，可能成为宽松的触发器。2024 年央行面临的目标权衡与能力边界将影响货币政策取向。

2024 年中国货币政策的三个 “锚”

Philadelphia Fed President Harker believes that the pace of economic slowdown in the United States seems to be faster than the government data shows. While the Fed does need to start cutting interest rates, there is no need to take immediate action.

Dovish officials refute optimistic market expectations: Rate cuts are necessary, but not immediate

Micron Tech's revenue for the first quarter of the fiscal year exceeded the company's revised guidance, while the loss was lower than expected and narrowed by 21% compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the revenue for the second quarter will increase by up to nearly 50% beyond expectations, and the EPS loss will narrow by up to 80% beyond expectations. Micron Tech stated that memory chip prices will rise in the next two years, and high-bandwidth memory revenue for this fiscal year is expected to reach hundreds of millions of dollars.

Chip recovery is improving, Micron Tech's previous quarter's revenue exceeded expectations by nearly 16%, and this quarter's guidance is even stronger. After the market closed, the stock jumped more than 5% | Earnings Report

摩根士丹利投资管理公司的 Jim Caron 表示，该公司正准备迎接未来 “艰难” 的一年。但部分一贯看涨的人士，包括 Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC 的 Tom Lee、Oppenheimer Asset Management 的 John Stoltzfus 和 BMO Capital Markets 的 Brian Belski 却预计会反弹，理由是过度悲观。Carson Group Holdings LLC 的 Ryan Detrick 预计经济表现坚韧将推动股市上涨，此外美国银行的 Savita Subramanian 年中掉头看多，从者如云。

押中美股反弹的少数机构预计 2024 年还能进一步上涨

The three major US stock indexes all fell more than 1%, with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones experiencing the largest decline in at least two months. The Dow Jones ended its five-day streak of hitting new all-time highs. FedEx shares fell 12% after the earnings report, leading the decline in the S&P 500. Tesla dropped nearly 4%, while Alphabet-C bucked the trend and rose more than 1%. Nvidia fell over 3%, marking its largest decline in nearly two months. Micron shares briefly jumped more than 5% after the earnings report. Chinese concept stocks retreated, with a decline of over 3%. NIO-SW fell 10% and Gaotu Education dropped 12%. UK stocks rose 1% after the release of the CPI data. The yield on 10-year UK bonds dropped more than 10 basis points, hitting an eight-month low, while the yield on 10-year German bonds fell below 2.0% for the first time in nine months. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell below 3.90% for several consecutive days, hitting a five-month low, and the yield on 2-year US bonds dropped more than 10 basis points. The British pound hit a new daily low, moving away from the high it reached after last week's Federal Reserve meeting. The US dollar index rebounded. Offshore renminbi fell more than 300 points, breaking through the 7.15 level. Crude oil rose for the third consecutive day, hitting a new high for the month before retreating. Gold and London copper fell from their two-week highs.

US stocks plummeted in the afternoon, with SPDR S&P 500 experiencing its largest decline in nearly three months. The Nasdaq ended its nine-day winning streak. UK inflation slowed down, and UK bonds surged.

提醒：12 月 21 日，将是特斯拉（TSLA）被纳入标普 500 指数的三周年。这段时间以来，特斯拉累计上涨 6.7%，标普 500 指数同期累涨 27.16%。

CME 比特币期货 BTC 和以太币期货 DCR 价格都有所上涨，欧股数字货币概念股中，Coinshares International Ltd.和 Northern Data AG 股价上涨，而 Safello Group AB 股价下跌。

周三（12 月 20 日），标普日用消费品板块收跌 2.02%，公用事业板块也跌将近 2.0%，可选消费和金融板块跌超 1.7%；信息技术/科技板块跌超 1.5%，创 10 月 26 日以来最大单日跌幅，报 3350.76 点，结束之前连续三个交易日创收盘历史新高的趋势；能源板块跌约 1.0% 跌幅倒数第二，电信服务板块跌 0.05%。

标普 500 指数的 11 个板块全线溃败，科技板块连续三天创新高之后回调

According to the media, Apple has been producing Vision Pro at full speed in China for several weeks, preparing for its launch in February next year. Apple sent an email to software developers this Wednesday, encouraging them to test their apps with the latest tools and send the software to Apple for feedback. Production issues in the final stage may potentially cause Apple to delay the launch.

Super Headset to be released before Chinese New Year? Apple reportedly full-speed production of Vision Pro in China

华纳兄弟探索（WBD）与派拉蒙全球（PARA）洽谈合并事宜。

苹果公司最近数周在中国全速生产混合头显 Vision Pro，计划明年 2 月上市。

On Wednesday, Bitcoin-related stocks rose. As of the time of writing, Canaan Technology rose more than 20%, Marathon Digital rose more than 7%, MicroStrategy and Bit Digital rose nearly 4%, Riot Platforms rose more than 4.7%, and Coinbase rose more than 3%.

US Stock Market Update | Bitcoin-related stocks rise, Jia Nan Technology surges over 20%

Among the 43 US shell-listed new energy companies from 2020 to 2022, more than 18 companies will run out of cash by the end of next year, with only enough cash to sustain a few weeks for 7 of them. Without cost-cutting or financing, these companies will face a "dire situation".

The decline of new energy: Start-up companies in the US stock market that want to become the next Tesla are running out of money.

For most of 2023, Tesla has expressed concerns about the global economy, and the CFO of Tesla has also stated that the company is focusing on cost-cutting measures to cope with the challenging economic environment.

Cutting expenses? Reports suggest that Tesla will skip employee performance stock incentives.

与去年 12 月相比，特斯拉 Model 3 降价 6%，比亚迪汉同期仅降价 5%，此外两者三季度市场份额均为 17%。

特斯拉降价幅度赢了比亚迪，但份额没有

比特币涨超 1%，向上触及 43000 美元/枚。

Analysis suggests that ByteDance's revenue is expected to increase by 30% YoY in 2023, with ByteDance's e-commerce business becoming a growth engine for the company.

Report: ByteDance's revenue in 2023 exceeds $110 billion, surpassing Tencent.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the market's expectations of interest rate cuts in March are somewhat overly optimistic. The bank believes that in the next two months, inflation may rebound and the cooling of the labor market may also be relatively slow, which could delay the timing of interest rate cuts until June.

Morgan Stanley: US inflation is expected to rebound in the next two months, making it unlikely for interest rates to be lowered in March next year!

美国证交会备忘录显示，黑石、纳斯达克和美国证交会今日举行会议，讨论设立比特币 ETF 的监控和合规措施，以确保市场完整性和防范欺诈活动。预计比特币 ETF 即将到来，市场应做好准备，明年格局可能会有所变化。

美证交会探讨比特币 ETF 市场预期似乎愈发明朗

香港证监会发布新闻告诫公众，提防涉嫌虚拟资产欺诈行为的实体 LonShiX 和 Bitbank Financial Holding Group。警方已封锁相关网站和账户。

香港证监会告诫公众提防 LonShiX 等涉嫌虚拟资产相关欺诈行为

The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting stance has boosted investor optimism in the US stock market IPOs. Currently, the upward trend in the US stock market has expanded to include small-cap stocks and other sectors, and it is expected that companies preparing to go public may accelerate their IPO timelines. However, the timing of a significant recovery in the new stock market remains uncertain, depending on the decline in the federal funds rate and seasonal factors. The market expects a 75 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate next year. In addition, there are risks associated with the US election and the pandemic. Bankers are cautiously optimistic about the return of larger-scale IPOs next year.

With the possibility of a Fed rate cut, will the US IPO market no longer experience a "false recovery" next year?

Tesla has cut prices for its electric cars in China more than BYD did for its flagship Han sedan, according to a study by JL Warren Capital. Tesla reduced the price of its Model 3 by 6% and the Model Y by 11%, while BYD's Han only saw a 5% price decrease. This price competition reflects the intense market competition in China's electric vehicle industry.

Tesla cut EV prices in China more than BYD did for its flagship Han sedan this year, study finds

Despite the potential challenges of Bitcoin spot ETF, the CEO of MicroStrategy stated that the company still finds Bitcoin investment attractive. The company offers leveraged high-performance investment tools and holds $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. Analysts expect the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF by mid-January. Saylor stated that the strategy of purchasing Bitcoin through zero-interest "smart" leverage will maintain the company's competitiveness. MicroStrategy's stock price has surged over 300%, surpassing the increase in Bitcoin.

Facing potential challenges from Bitcoin spot ETF, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor remains confident.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that cryptocurrency is the future of currency. Despite regulatory obstacles, the price of cryptocurrencies has risen by 90% this year. Armstrong believes that cryptocurrency regulation in the United States is "lagging behind" other countries, but he remains optimistic about the longevity of cryptocurrencies. The approval of a Bitcoin ETF could stimulate renewed investment from investors and institutional capital, while also increasing awareness among the general public. Cryptocurrencies are not just a speculative asset class, but can also be used for various practical purposes such as stablecoin payments, commercial remittances, and DeFi lending. People are now starting to build a new type of application platform known as Web3.

Coinbase CEO: Cryptocurrency is the "future of currency."

作为中国商界一个独特的存在，京东曾经无限风光，万亿市值，稳居电商老二，依靠优质服务实现了口碑与利润的双丰收。然而，电商江湖，没有永恒的壁垒，只有变化。三年之前，京东市值还与拼多多站在同一起跑线，3 年后的今天，拼多多一骑绝尘完成了对前浪阿里的市值反超。

“不躺平” 的刘强东能再造京东吗？

In 2024, as the hype subsides, the AI industry will experience a significant transformation and reshuffling.

2024 AI Six Major Predictions: OpenAI's Transformation, Apple's Entry... The AI battlefield will see a major reshuffle

据港交所微博，香港圣诞节假期将至，投资者请留意沪深港通交易安排。北向沪股通和深股通及南向港股通将于 12 月 25 日至 12 月 26 日暂停交易。12 月 27 日，沪深港通将如常开通。

港交所：沪深港通下周一、下周二暂停交易

亚洲股市在美股走强的带动下继续上涨。日经 225 指数创下一周来最大盘中涨幅，中国香港、韩国和澳大利亚的股指也走高。美国国债收益率下滑，市场猜测日本央行退出负利率政策的猜测降温，日本国债收益率下跌。美元指数走低后企稳，亚洲货币涨跌互现。比特币下跌，以太币基本持平。西德克萨斯中质原油和现货黄金基本持平。

亚市午盘：亚股接力美股走强

大摩认为，“科技七巨头” 可能会在 2024 年继续上涨，因为这些公司的盈利表现 “非常好”，他们明年将 “回购大量股票”，这些股票明年 “很有可能” 再次领跑。

理解市场 | 美股明年为什么还会涨？

EAST BUY's stock price has dropped more than 7%, and as of the time of writing, it has fallen by 7.08% to HKD 29.55, with a turnover of HKD 381 million. On the news front, on the evening of December 18th, Yu Minhong and Dong Yuhui conducted a live broadcast on the EAST BUY account. Yu Minhong and Dong Yuhui revealed that Dong Yuhui will have another live broadcast on the 21st before taking a long vacation. In addition, according to data from the third-party short video e-commerce digital marketing service platform, Chananma, on the evening of the 18th, Dong Yuhui's return to the first live broadcast resulted in a significant increase in the number of viewers in the EAST BUY live room, with a slight increase in sales volume and sales revenue, but a decrease in the conversion rate (sales volume/viewers), dropping from about 2.8% on the 17th to 2%. Previously, on the evening of December 17th, EAST BUY announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the board of directors had decided on December 16th to remove Sun Dongxu from the position of CEO and dismiss him from his position as an executive director of the company. In addition, Dong Yuhui was promoted to senior partner. Yu Minhong also announced on his personal Douyin account that, after the board of directors' research and decision, Dong Yuhui has been appointed as the cultural assistant to the board of directors of New Oriental Education & Technology Group and concurrently serves as the vice president of New Oriental Culture & Tourism Group. With this, the "short essay" incident comes to an end with relevant personnel changes.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | EAST BUY falls more than 7%, Dong Yuhui announces another long vacation

Tesla's prospects have raised concerns on Wall Street, with several investment banks lowering their growth expectations for the company. Analysts suggest that some of Tesla's electric vehicles may lose eligibility for government subsidies, putting pressure on the company's revenue. According to data, Wall Street's outlook on Tesla's performance is increasingly pessimistic, with profit forecasts declining and delivery expectations being adjusted. These bearish comments reflect the intensified competition and the loss of incentives that Tesla is facing. Investors should exercise caution when dealing with the price fluctuations of Tesla's stock.

Is the electric car boom over? Multiple investment banks lower Tesla's growth expectations.

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

The stock prices of American oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron have fallen this year, due to the impact of macroeconomic conditions, operational challenges, and fluctuations in crude oil prices in 2023. ExxonMobil's net profit and earnings per share in the third quarter have declined by more than half, and Chevron's net profit has also decreased. Despite this, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about these two stocks and have given them a "buy" rating. In addition, both companies are actively engaged in mergers and acquisitions.